On March 2, Bailey Ober tossed three strong innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up one earned run on a home run to Nick Castellanos and striking out seven of the ten hitters he faced. Two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper created headlines by saying, “Good luck” to hitters who have to face Ober in the AL Central. Since then, people can’t stop talking about Ober. The 6’9” Ober touched 94.8 mph against Philadelphia, one of the quantifiable optimism-inducing developments in spring training.
MLB.com’s Do Hyoung-Park noted that Ober’s four-seam fastball topped out at 94.2 MPH before sitting at 91.3 MPH last season (13th percent outcome at Baseball Savant). Evidence suggests Ober’s fastball velocity will dip again as the 162-game regular season begins. Still, with his elite extension and ability to effectively pound the strike zone, evidenced by a 5% walk rate last season, Ober’s fastball will continue to generate near-elite results against major league hitters even if he can’t maintain the 3.5 mph spike in velocity shown against the Phillies.
Because of his unique four-seam fastball profile, Ober has generated a two-strike count 56.8% of the time since making his MLB debut in 2021, one of the highest marks in MLB. Yet, the College of Charleston product has generated a 24.4% strikeout rate, a slightly above league average 57th percentile outcome during that time frame.
Ober’s inability to put hitters away despite an above-average 56.8% two-strike count rate over the past three seasons is partially because he hasn’t developed a put-away pitch. The Huntersville, NC native’s primary secondary pitch is his changeup, one of the best in baseball. Ober attacks the zone with his changeup, throwing it 28% of the time. His changeup is an adequate complement to his four-seam fastball, which he uses 45.7% of the time. Still, it doesn’t operate as a proper two-strike-out pitch. Ober’s other secondary pitches are a sweeper and a curveball. In 2023, Ober threw his sweeper and curveball a combined 26.3% of the time, generating a well below league-average 31% swinging strike rate between the two pitches.
As he enters his fourth season, Ober has the potential to be a solidified frontline MLB starting pitcher. But his inability to develop an adequate putout pitch to complement his near-elite fastball and changeup is the only obstacle in his way. Since fastballs move mainly in a vertical plane and changeups move to the arm side of same-handed hitters, Ober would benefit from adding a functional glove-side pitch that moves away from same-handed hitters into his repertoire. The other quantifiable optimism-inducing development in Ober’s start was the seeming implementation of a gyro slider into his pitcher mix.
Most traditional sliders or sweepers travel around 83-85 mph and have substantial horizontal break. A slider or sweeper is never meant to look like a heater. Instead, it breaks away before hitters can make appropriate contact. In contrast, a gyro slider is a higher-velocity pitch that presents itself as a fastball or cutter to the hitter before breaking below their bat path. Ober utilized this pitch against the Phillies, showcasing a 4.7 MPH increase in velocity from his sweeper.
Adding a gyro slider to his pitch mix is an excellent sign of the former 12th-round pick’s ability to become a frontline starting pitcher for the Twins in 2024. Starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle departed in the offseason, and the front office replaced them with less effective options in oft-injured veterans Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani. Therefore, Ober will need to reach heights yet seen for the Twins pitching staff to generate numbers similar to their 2023 campaign.
Assuming he sustains his near-elite fastball and changeup in 2024, Ober will likely be Minnesota’s second-best starting pitcher after Pablo López, who could contend for the Cy Young. Still, with fellow high-upside arm Joe Ryan, Paddack, and potentially Varland being the only pitchers on the 40-man roster who could reasonably match Ober’s career numbers this upcoming season, Ober could become Minnesota’s second-best pitcher by default rather than reaching a new gear in performance. If Ober is to become a solidified All-Star caliber frontline starting pitcher, he must develop a breaking pitch that adequately complements his four-seam fastball and changeup. His newfound gyro slider presents an opportunity past breaking pitches did not.
