Since the Minnesota Twins hired Derek Falvey as their chief baseball officer in October 2016, fans have patiently waited for the team to manufacture a rejuvenated starting pitcher pipeline. Could the Twins sustainably produce Major League talent like the Cleveland Guardians, the organization they hired him away from? Seven years later, Falvey has yet to develop pitching as fans expected when he took the job.
Falvey and Co. initially failed to produce starting pitching as successfully as Cleveland, the Tampa Bay Rays, or the Los Angeles Dodgers. But Minnesota’s system has legitimate pitching prospects, leading many who follow the team to believe the Twins are building a sustainable starting pitching pipeline. Recently, they developed pitchers Bailey Ober and Louie Varland using picks in the mid-teens. Also, the organization has traded and developed starting pitchers, with Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo López as the primary examples.
Last season, internal starting pitching prospects Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, C.J. Culpepper, Zebby Matthews, Pierson Ohl, and Andrew Morris excelled in the farm system, leading pundits to believe they could contribute to the parent club in the not-too-distant future. With this group of promising young pitchers, alongside highly drafted high school pitchers Connor Prielipp and Charlee Soto, the Twins have developed one of MLB’s more underrated pitching systems.
The eight starting pitching prospects listed above will need more time to marinate in the minors before making an impact in Minnesota. However, David Festa is on the brink of making an impact in the big leagues. In 2022, Festa generated a 2.43 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 10.42 strikeouts per nine, and 2.70 walks per nine over 18 starts and 103 2/3 innings pitched between Low- and High-A. Hardly a big name coming out of college, the 13th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Seton Hall quickly became one of the best pitching prospects in the Twins system.
But Festa regressed last year. His statistics tumbled to a 4.19 ERA and 4.04 FIP between Double- and Triple-A. Festa’s walks per nine spiked to an uninspiring 5.14, exemplifying how control issues led to him negatively regressing in the high minors. Festa’s 2023 campaign wasn’t all bad, though. He represented the Twins in the Futures Game, allowing one hit and striking out one batter over one inning pitched in relief. Festa’s strikeout per nine also jumped to an encouraging 11.32 while piling up 119 strikeouts in 92 innings pitched between Double- and Triple-A.
Despite his inconsistent performance last season, Festa is still a top-two pitching prospect in the Twins system alongside Raya. As a top pitching prospect who reached Triple-A last season, could the 23-year-old become a meaningful contributor in Minnesota early next season? The likelihood of Festa making a major league impact in 2024 depends on how well the team’s rotation performs early this season. Late last March, the Twins left Spring Training with López, Gray, Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda in the rotation. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s starting rotation will have less veteran depth this season.
Gray, Mahle, and Maeda departed in free agency. That means the Twins will rely on the oft-injured Chris Paddack to occupy the fourth rotation spot, with aging veteran Anthony DeSclafani and inexperienced Varland competing for the fifth. Minnesota’s starting pitching depth behind Varland, who projects to begin next season at Triple-A St. Paul, consists of Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Matt Canterino, and Festa. Of the six pitchers mentioned, Festa pitched the best in 2023 and probably has the most upside.
Upon receiving an invitation to big-league spring training, Festa will enter camp lower on the organization’s depth chart, behind pitchers with MLB experience like Woods Richardson, Headrick, Winder, and Sands. Still, a strong spring training effort could propel him atop the group. Festa has an MLB-caliber pitching repertoire. His fastball sits around 95 mph, throws his slider in the upper 80s, and has a changeup with overpowering glove-side movement that baffles hitters of both-handedness. Festa would benefit from incorporating a fourth pitch that moves in a vertical plane with lateral movement, like a curveball or splitter. However, most 23-year-old 13th-rounders don’t have three above-average pitches.
Festa may also turn out to be a high-leverage reliever, especially if he could maximize his fastball velocity and secondary pitches, similar to what Varland did late last season. Regardless, the Twins acquired a lot of veteran relievers with no minor league options this offseason. Therefore, Festa has virtually no chance to make the big league bullpen out of camp. Festa has the potential to flourish into a young, high-upside starting pitcher who could become a mainstay in Minnesota’s rotation for seasons to come. If he impresses at major league camp this spring, he could become an impact player for the Twins sometime this summer.
