Looking back at the recent history of Green Bay Packers drafts is a fascinating mix of approaches, ranging from an aggressive move up to get players like Jordan Love and Jaire Alexander, mixed with less successful moves for players like Darnell Savage. With solid depth at positions of need combined with the recent track record of draft success for Brian Gutekunst, there doesn’t appear to be a great reason for the Packers to move up in the first round this year.
After addressing perhaps Green Bay’s most pressing need in free agency by signing Xavier McKinney, the next position group that needs blue-chip talent is the offensive line. According to the latest big board on Pro Football Focus, 10 linemen fall within the top 32 of their rankings, with another 10 falling within the top 100.
The Packers sit at No. 25, and there will probably be somewhere between eight and 10 players drafted that are either wide receivers or quarterbacks. The likelihood is low that all 10 first-round-graded linemen will come off the board in the other 15 picks before Green Bay steps to the podium. Add in a few of the top defensive talents in edge rushers like Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu or defensive backs like Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, or Cooper DeJean, and there are certainly going to be a few teams that go defense in the first round. From purely a numbers game perspective, there will assuredly be a top offensive line talent still on the board at No. 25.
Even if there was a player, such as Cooper DeJean, that the Packers were absolutely in love with, it might not be worth the opportunity cost of moving up to take such a player. DeJean’s pro day at Iowa sent his stock skyrocketing, and moving up to the mid-teens (or higher?) feels too cost-prohibitive for Green Bay to move up. The Packers have a league-high 11 selections lined up for this season’s draft. With all the areas of need, it’s hard to see Gutekunst coming away with less than that and sacrificing chances to bring in guys to compete.
Ted Thompson‘s draft-and-develop approach has molded Gutekunst’s draft philosophy. But Gutekunst has stocked the position groups with ample competition as well as anyone in the league. Speaking at the scouting combine in February, he referenced bringing in competition at the quarterback position, not just to push Jordan Love but also Sean Clifford. He seems set on carrying over that philosophy to the rest of the roster depth, too.
Many of Green Bay’s needs are well known. They will most certainly draft two offensive linemen with their 11 picks, if not more. You can bet that Gutekunst will add a quarterback at some point he mentioned. Running back depth certainly remains a need, given the financial investment in Josh Jacobs. A linebacker will surely be in the mix. A kicker might even hear his name called. McKinney solves a lot in the secondary. But like the offensive line, one, if not two, defensive backs will be headed to Green Bay after the draft.
Given the absolute heater that Gutekunst has been on over the past two drafts — the Packers will likely have somewhere in the vicinity of 14 starters in 2024 from the previous two draft classes — it’s reasonable to expect that his confidence is soaring heading into draft weekend. Green Bay’s late-season push and the impressive playoff showing have vaulted the team from a tier in which they’re fighting for the playoffs into an upper echelon where a long playoff run becomes more of the expectation.
As tempting as moving up in the draft can be, Gutekunst should rely on the strength of his numbers. He’s crushed the opening four rounds in each draft, has pulled a potential WR1 in the fifth round (yesm I’m that high on Dontayvion Wicks), and might just have found a diamond in the rough with Rasheed Walker as a seventh-round left tackle. Gutekunst has stockpiled his picks for a reason: he wants as many chances to strike gold as possible. Nailing two or three more picks could mean wonders for the Packers this season, and maneuvering the draft without sacrificing the number of chances feels like a sound strategy for Green Bay to navigate.
