Brian Gutekunst has been general manager of the Green Bay Packers since 2018, which means we have a good sample size for analyzing how he builds the roster.
In the draft, Gutekunst targets young, highly athletic players at premium positions. Gutekunst looks for guys he believes have their best football ahead of them and will often take someone with a high ceiling and amazing physical gifts over more proven candidates. There are outliers, like spending first-round selections on an off-ball linebacker and an older defensive lineman in 2021, but his modus operandi is mostly clear.
But Gutekunst’s trends completely shift when he enters the free-agent market. He has brought in several big-name free agents who likely weren’t even on his big board as draftees. The Packers don’t often go all-out on the opening days of free agency, but they use different criteria when they do. What does Green Bay like in its splash signings, and how can we use this information to predict future free-agency acquisitions?
The Packers have a reputation for remaining relatively quiet in free agency, especially in the early going. They often prioritize re-signing players on expiring deals. By the way, just because someone already plays for your team doesn’t mean signing them to a big deal isn’t a great move! However, we’ll set that aside for now; these moves will not factor into this analysis.
Gutekunst made true splashes in the free-agent market (signing big-name players to lucrative deals with the intent of them playing major roles rather than just filling gaps) in 2018, 2019, and 2024. His moves from 2020 to 2023 focused on finding cheap veterans to fill roster holes.
In 2018, TE Jimmy Graham signed a three-year, $30 million deal. In 2019, Gutekunst signed four impact starters — EDGE Preston Smith, EDGE Za’Darius Smith, OT Billy Turner, and S Adrian Amos. This year, he signed RB Josh Jacobs and S Xavier McKinney.
It was the 2019 group that truly set the standard for what Gutekunst sought in free agency — young, hungry guys in their physical prime, starved for winning. The 2019 crew was young and just hitting their prime: Preston Smith (26), Za’Darius Smith (25), Amos (25), and Turner (27).
While these players were in their physical prime, their athletic testing as draftees didn’t reflect that. Preston and Amos had solid profiles — 9.8 and 8.62, respectively. But Turner’s was low (by their typical standard) at 7.18, and Za’Darius Smith was a 3.75. Za’Darius Smith had one of the most impactful seasons of any defensive player in Green Bay in 2019, and he wouldn’t have even been on their radar as a draft prospect.
The 2024 group had similar testing results. Jacobs just turned 26 and had a 5.65 RAS (the lowest by far on the Packers offense), while McKinney is 24 but had a 5.85 RAS.
While the Packers probably don’t use RAS specifically, we know they value highly athletic players in the draft — the team bets on traits. In the draft, you bet on these traits because players are unknowns. There are so many unmeasurables and what-ifs involved that, by banking on RAS, you know there’s at least a good foundation.
But that metric matters less when a player has proven himself in the league. Who cares what his 40-time was as a 20-year-old when he has proven his ability to make plays at the next level?
Still, age is the metric they continue to value. The Packers have a Leonardo DiCaprio-like philosophy of looking for those in their mid-20s. These players tend to be just entering their peaks, meaning Green Bay will get full value out of a long-term deal, a rarity in free agency. Some, like Preston Smith, may stay with the team beyond their initial deal.
Oddly, Gutekunst’s first splash move, Jimmy Graham, is the exception to the rule. Graham was a decorated veteran player with a 9.62 RAS score who was closer to the end of his career than his prime.
Even some of the team’s more stopgap signings, like Christian Kirksey and De’Vondre Campbell, fit this mold — average RAS scores but younger with plenty of football juice left.
Some of these traits are masked by Gutekunst reportedly being in seemingly every conversation, including players who likely never would wind up in Green Bay or potential overpays (Chase Claypool) and splash signings like Sammy Watkins or Devin Funchess. But when you look at the players Gutekunst has given up money for, it’s clear what he likes.
What’s the lesson here? Based on their draft profiles, players you might not normally think Green Bay would be interested in can fit in Titletown just fine. Gutekunst will attack areas of need while looking at their long-term projection. These players might not be stars yet but can hit their prime in Green Bay at often reasonable prices. And when Gutey wants a player, he’ll make it happen, regardless of how we view the team’s finances.
