The Minnesota Timberwolves are nearing the end of a difficult stretch of the season. They played 16 straight games against teams that were over .500 when the stretch began, and 11 of those games were on the road. The Wolves have not been as dominant in this stretch of games as they were early in the season. Still, they’ve managed to maintain a winning record in the stretch so far, going 8-6 in the first 14. But that’s still a solid record considering how good most of the teams they played were and how much parity there is in the league overall. By surviving that stretch, they have stayed in first place in the Western Conference.
It’s been incredibly refreshing that the Wolves have avoided their typical tailspin. In the past, they would fall from promising inner-circle contenders to outsiders looking once the best teams started to separate themselves. However, there were a few long-term concerns that Minnesota’s opponents exposed during these games, and the Wolves will have to address them before the playoffs. The biggest concern is the offense, of course, where there seems to be somewhat of a philosophical conundrum developing.
MinnPost scribe Britt Robson posted this after Monday’s loss in Dallas:
The Wolves are having a hard time finding a balance between free-flowing offense and letting Anthony Edwards cook. Chris Finch has always preached ball movement and flow, which creates randomness, as core tenets of his offensive philosophy. The Finchian “flow” concept feels similar to the San Antonio Spurs’ “Beautiful Game,” or the “Pace and Space” Golden State Warriors. The goal of Finch’s offense is to keep everyone on the team involved by passing regularly, making the defense work to fight through screens, and closing out to perimeter shooters. He’s also trying to keep defenses on their toes through improvised actions rather than repeatedly running set plays that opponents can learn.
I love this philosophy. When it’s executed to perfection, it’s likely the most effective way to play basketball as a team. It is especially effective for teams that have a multitude of high-quality role players who can shoot well, play tough defense, and execute the concepts their coaches install like those Spurs and Warriors teams did. One could even say that the strategy is necessary to survive in the modern NBA if you don’t have a historically great offensive player like Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, or Kevin Durant.
However, Edwards is quickly rising to the level where he could be one of those historically great players. He can already score at will against almost anyone. Over the last 10 games, Ant is averaging 31.8 points per game, which is fifth in the NBA behind only Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Giannis, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Edwards is also scoring efficiently, shooting 48.4% from the field, 40% from three-point range, and 83.3% at the free throw line.
For reference, that’s only slightly less efficient than Doncic, and on par with Jayson Tatum. To top it all off, Ant is at least two years younger than all the other players in the top 5. Although Edwards may occasionally have turnover issues, that’s actually pretty standard for players who handle the ball as much as he does. On the season, Ant is averaging 3.4 turnovers per game, which is less than Luka (4.0), Embiid (3.9), and Giannis (3.6).
Ant deserves the load he is taking on, and there’s reason to believe that he deserves to take on more. But I’m not sure that Minnesota’s current roster has the proper players to execute the flow strategy consistently, or at least consistently enough to justify taking the ball out of Edwards’ hands and asking him to defer out of principle. The Wolves have three other proven knockdown three-point shooters aside from Ant, who’s shooting 38.9% — Karl-Anthony Towns (39.4%), Naz Reid (39.8%), and Mike Conley (45.3%). Aside from them, most of Minnesota’s roster is full of streaky shooters who are around or below the league average, which is 36.6% this year.
In theory, it’s good for Ant to pass up a good shot to get the ball to a teammate who has a great shot. But if that pass goes to a teammate who can’t shoot at a high percentage or score off the dribble, then is that really the right play? And if Mike, KAT, and Naz are the only players on the team who can consistently knock down those shots, does the team have the right personnel to play the pace, space, and flow strategy? And if they don’t have the right personnel, then shouldn’t they temporarily adjust to fit their strengths?
That doesn’t have to mean giving Edwards more volume by letting him dribble the ball up the court and iso every time, either. Ant acknowledged that after the Wolves lost to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. “We need to let Mike [Conley] initiate everything,” he said. “Myself included, I’ve got to stop coming back for the ball ‘cause that’s playing into the defense’s hands. Going into ball screens, getting trapped. We Gotta let Mike initiate the offense more.”
However, after the loss to the Mavericks on Sunday, he also said: “I feel like once again I left bullets in the chamber, but I’ll take this one for sure, I gotta be aggressive down the stretch.”
Ant took only one shot against the Mavericks in clutch time on Sunday, which shouldn’t happen, given that he is Minnesota’s most dynamic player. Although Ant put the blame on himself for not being aggressive enough, the Wolves two plays for KAT in the last few possessions. So perhaps we can simply combine the two concepts to make some late-game magic.
Mike is the team’s best initiator, and Ant is the team’s best scorer. So why not draw up a play in the clutch for Ant to start off the ball, come off a screen, and see what he can do with the separation created, just like they did for KAT on Sunday? For example, the Warriors run plays like this for Steph Curry so that he can get open off the ball rather than with the ball when a double team is almost certain to come.
Additionally, now that Ant is getting the foul calls he’s always deserved, it makes even more sense for him to get the ball in the clutch. Not only is he a more consistent shooter than most of Minnesota’s other players, but he also draws significantly more fouls than anyone else on the team. Ant is averaging 6.8 free throws a game this year, 2.1 higher than KAT and Gobert who both average 4.7. He also averages 4.9 more free throw attempts higher than the next player, Kyle Anderson, who averages 1.9.
Obviously, Edwards is putting up numbers like that because he already has the ball in his hands more than anyone else on the team. He also takes 4.5 more shot attempts per game than anyone else. Maybe it’s because the officials are respecting Ant’s pedigree — his “hey,” as Michael Grady would say. Or perhaps Ant has just gotten better at noticing when a defender is over-pursuing him, and taking advantage of it by leaning into contact. Regardless, he has shown a stronger ability to get to the line this year.
Ultimately, you often don’t come across players like Anthony Edwards in the NBA. I don’t think the Wolves need to play full heliocentric basketball like the Mavericks do with Luka, or the Rockets did with James Harden. Clearly, there is a limit to what one player can do for your offense, and the best ball-dominant players win championships by making their teammates better like LeBron James has done throughout his career. However, I also feel that there has been a little too much focus put on Ant needing to pass more and hope or trust the ball will come back to him. Because lately, the odds are that the Wolves have a much smaller chance to score if the ball doesn’t come back to him.
I agree that multiple pass possessions are important. Some of Minnesota’s best offensive games have come on nights where the ball is swinging around the perimeter, almost everyone on the team is able to score a few buckets, and the team has high assist numbers. However, high assist totals and ball movement aren’t the beginning and end of good offense, and they haven’t always directly led to winning for the Timberwolves. Minnesota has finished three games with over 30 assists as a team this season, and all three of them were losses. Of course, I don’t want to draw any major conclusions from this stat, because they’ve also won three games with 29 assists. I’m just saying that passing does not always equal winning, especially when it means you’re taking possessions away from your best scorer.
There is a tested and proven method to winning games at the highest level that has remained consistent throughout the NBA’s history. When you need a bucket in clutch time, put the ball in the hands of your best player, and let them cook. Ant has been hands down the best driver of offense on the Wolves this year.
He deserves to have the ball in his hands at the end of games. He also deserves to have opportunities to learn how to make the best decisions in those situations, even if it means he occasionally turns the ball over dribbling into a crowd. Unless the Wolves can trade for a player who can get their own offense or take more advantage of the free-flowing offense, they may need to continue to lean further into Ant being the focus of the offense to guarantee the team gets good offense when it matters the most.
