Whenever they’re assigned to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the officials have probably become accustomed to hearing Anthony Edwards’ patented “Hey!” on nearly every drive or Karl-Anthony Towns’ looks of bewilderment. However, after a close win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, Edwards had a pretty blatant assessment of the officiating.
“Imma take this fine,” he told Bally Sports’ Lea B. Olson, “but the refs gave us no calls tonight.”
After the game, Edwards told ESPN’s Tim McMahon, “The refs was bad tonight. Yeah, they was terrible. We was playing 8-on-5…. It’s not fair, but it’s all good.”
The outburst of honesty came after a six-point victory over the Thunder. In that game, Oklahoma City shot seven more free throws, and the Wolves had two more personal fouls. Likely, the boiling point came on a driving dunk by Anthony Edwards with 1:57 left in the game. The dunk gave the Wolves a 101-97 lead. During the dunk, Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears to grab Edwards on the left wrist. It should be noted that the NBA’s two-minute report concluded the contact was “marginal.”
Jim Peterson breaks down the play on the telecast below:
This comes one week after the officials missed crucial calls that may have led to a January 22 loss to the Hornets. The two-minute report in that game was less kind to the officiating, reporting Karl-Anthony Towns was fouled twice on Minnesota’s last possession shot.
So, is Edwards right? Do the Wolves have a referee problem?
Gambling sites have been tracking referees for years. So has basketball reference and NBA.com, allowing for deep dives into how NBA referees officiate each team. The NBA website has even tried to humanize their officials by having them answer a ten-questions style of game. The amount of data on officiating is massive. Sports analytics have broken into the world of officiating! With these analytics, some trends clarify how referees are treating the Wolves.
First, it’s important to acknowledge that the NBA does a masterful job of rotating referees and crews across the league. The Timberwolves have played 47 games and had 68 different officials. Only three of those 68 officials have called more than three Wolves games this season: Pat Fraher (5), JB DeRosa (4), and Nick Buchert (4). That small sample size and the vast amount of officials should discredit an overarching conspiracy theory against the Wolves. However, looking at the officials one by one is illuminating.
The Timberwolves are 1-3 in games Buchert officiates. That’s Minnesota’s lowest winning percentage for any official who has called more than one game. In those four games, the Wolves have averaged 21.0 fouls committed per 48 minutes, including 11 shooting fouls. Their opponents have outscored them by 7.0 points per game on average.
Minnesota averages 19.3 fouls per game for the regular season. Therefore, Buchert averages approximately 1.7 fouls more per game than the season average. Conversely, Buchert calls 18.8 fouls on opponents on average, resulting in 2.2 more fouls being called against the Wolves than their opponents.
Opposing teams also averaged 4.5 more free throw attempts per game that Buchert officiated than the Timberwolves. Considering Minnesota’s opponents only outscored them by 7 points in these games, the 4.5 extra free throws are crucial. Another critical data point is that the Wolves have a .345 winning percentage in over 58 career games Burchert has officiated. That’s the second-lowest among the league’s 30 teams he officiated from 2009 to 2024.
The Timberwolves are 2-2 in the four games JB Derosa has officiated. On average, Derosa calls 20.0 fouls per game on the Wolves, up from their 19.3 average. But we have to consider Minnesota’s opponents in those games. On average, the Timberwolves shoot 1.5 more free throws than their opponents and score 2.4 more points per game. That suggests that DeRosa is giving the Wolves the advantage in games he officiates. Looking at DeRosa’s career, the Timberwolves have a 54.8 winning percentage and have averaged 1.2 points per game more than their opponents from 2017 to 2024.
Lastly, the Timberwolves are 4-1 in games Fraher officiates. The refs called the Wolves for 19.4 fouls per game, and they average 6.0 more free throws than their opponents on 3.0 fewer fouls per game. Minnesota’s average margin of victory is 15.8 points per game. Fraher has been officiating from 1995 to 2024, and the Wolves have the sixth-worst winning percentage of all 30 teams Fraher has officiated (42.4%). Their opponents have outscored them by 4.0 points per game.
To the naked eye and by the stats, it appears that Buchert is calling Wolves games differently than his counterparts. However, it may be just a matter of circumstance. Buchert has often seen the Timberwolves when they are at their worst. He enjoyed watching the Wolves lose to the Hawks 127-113 in an epic second-half meltdown on October 30. He also witnessed the Thunder blow them out 129-106 on December 26, a game in which the officials called the Wolves for 8 fewer fouls than the Thunder. These games were so out of hand that Buchert likely did not impact the outcome.
While it may seem like certain referees are out to get the Timberwolves, it’s much more likely that the team is performing poorly. For example, on January 3, the Wolves lost an ugly game to the New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points. The Wolves were down 21 points going into the fourth quarter and committed 11 more fouls than the Pelicans in that game, not including the two technicals that resulted in Minnesota shooting ten fewer free throws.
JB DeRosa and Pat Fraher were the referees in that game, and they statistically favor the Wolves. The other loss DeRosa called was Minnesota’s January 10 overtime loss in Boston, where the Wolves tired in the second half of a back-to-back. Boston shot 11 more free throws in that game, and they had eight fewer fouls.
Coming full circle back to the Thunder game. Let’s look at the official’s raw data:
Mark Lindsey (1-2 Wolves record)
- -5 free throw differential
- 1.0 more personal fouls called on the Wolves
- Wolves outscored by 8.6 points per game
Karl Lane (3-0 Wolves record)
- -1.7 free throw differential
- 1.0 more personal fouls called on the Wolves
- Wolves outscore opponents by 15.0
Matt Myers (2-0 Wolves record)
- +3.5 free throws per game
- 2.5 more fouls called on the Wolves per game
- Wolves outscored opponents by 17.0
Minnesota’s 6-1 record with members of that crew despite all three referees calling more fouls on the Timberwolves per game. Yet Minnesota meaningfully outscores its opponents with two of the officials. The data is almost always conflicting. But again, that’s likely due to circumstances. A close game where the Wolves trail may result in them fouling significantly more, thus skewing the data. For example, in a blowout, the Wolves may have played bench players, who are more likely to foul.
In reality, officiating seems more random and circumstantial than anything else. While the data may point to certain trends, one game can manipulate all that data. Ultimately, games can be won or lost on a bad call. But it’s up to the players and the team to put themselves in a position where that one lousy call does not matter. Edwards may be a few years away from a superstar whistle, but putting pressure on the officials and being aggressive in the game will be crucial come playoff time.
