I can’t see the future, and even Madame Web wouldn’t be able to tell you exactly how the Western Conference standings will look when the regular season ends on April 14. As I write this, only 2.5 games separate the first-place Minnesota Timberwolves and fourth-place Los Angeles Clippers.
Only four games stand between the New Orleans Pelicans in fifth place and the Los Angeles Lakers in the 10th and final play-in position.
The West is as tough and tight as ever, and seeding matters now more than ever for the Wolves. With news breaking that Karl-Anthony Towns will miss an undetermined amount of time with a meniscus injury in his left knee, the Timberwolves must finish their final 20 games of the season strong to give themselves the best first-round matchup without their second-leading scorer.
If the season ended today, The Wolves would still have to wait for the results of the Play-In Tournament. However, they would get one of the Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, or Los Angeles Lakers in the 1-8 matchup. The Suns are also in the mix. They sit just a half-game up on the Kings for sixth place and could easily fall into the play-in muck, while the Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz have all but conceded their playoff hopes this season.
Minnesota matches up well against most of its potential foes. They are 3-1 against Dallas, 2-0 against the Warriors and Lakers, 1-2 against Sacramento, and 0-1 in their only meeting thus far against the Suns. Wolves fans will be fully clenched for the playoffs, no matter who they play. However, some potential opponents pose a more existential threat to the well-being of an entire fanbase than others.
I don’t care how strong the Timberwolves look heading into the playoffs or how much the opponent is struggling; the last thing anyone wants to see is LeBron James or Steph Curry lining up across the court for a first-round matchup at the Target Center. The Warriors and Lakers are 33-28 and 34-30, respectively, and mired in up-and-down seasons. But even struggling teams anchored by the two best players of this generation should scare the hell out of the Timberwolves. You only have to go back one season to be reminded of what the Lakers and Golden State can do to higher-seeded teams. In last year’s playoffs, the seventh-seeded Lakers dispatched the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies in six games. Meanwhile, the sixth-seeded Warriors took down the third-seeded Kings.
The gap between the top seeds and the underdogs will likely be more pronounced this season. Only four games separated the third and sixth seeds last season; that gap stands at six games as we speak. But the narrative surrounding the high and mighty regular season team in uncharted territory versus the proven champions who will never go down without a fight could loom large if the Wolves draw one of these teams. Anthony Edwards might not fear anyone in the NBA, and Wolves fans can put on a brave face. But deep down, nobody wants to face any last-gasp dynasties or generational GOATs trying to go out on a high note.
Most should see the two teams the Wolves have a losing record against as neutral playoff opponents. Neither the Suns nor the Kings should strike too much fear, but the Wolves can’t take them lightly. Minnesota’s lone loss to Phoenix came on the second night of a back-to-back at the end of a hard-fought road trip. Their three games against Sacramento ended in a 13-point loss, a 12-point win, and a four-point overtime loss.
But Dallas is the potential matchup Wolves fans should pray for in the first round. Minnesota’s three wins against the Mavs this season have come by an average of 20 points, with a seven-point loss sandwiched in early January. The Mavericks are 2-5 since the All-Star break, with the league’s worst defense. Yes, a Luka Doncic 50-20-20 Game 7 triple-double is on the table if the Wolves get into that situation, but Dallas is the team most ripe for a first-round sweep.
The last thing the Wolves can do is regress down the stretch, relinquish the top seed, and drop to three or four. The two seed would still give them a first-round matchup with a play-in team and soften the blow in the second round. But falling to three or four would make a first-round matchup with New Orleans likely and set up a second-round death match against likely one of the Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets without home-court advantage. Minnesota is 2-2 in the season series against the Pelicans, but New Orleans has shown the blueprint for a potential first-round upset.
We won’t know what the Western Conference standings look like for another five months, and the Wolves have a lot of work left to do to ensure they get the best possible matchups. The last and only time in franchise history that the Timberwolves snagged the top seed, they were a Sam Cassell injury away from sniffing the finals. The Towns injury could be history repeating itself. Still, playoff seeding will play a huge role in deciding which month Minnesota’s season ends.
