In life, sometimes timing matters a lot more than talent and ability.
That seems to be the case for T.J. Warren.
He signed a 10-day contract on March 6. One day later, we learned that Towns would be out indefinitely with a left meniscus tear. That thrust Warren into the Minnesota Timberwolves’ rotation, providing meaningful minutes for him to earn an extension. If Warren takes advantage of that opportunity, he could stick with the team for the remainder of the season. Therefore, we should know who Warren is and what he can offer the Wolves.
The Phoenix Suns drafted Warren 14th overall in 2014 after two stellar seasons with NC State. Warren’s role grew constantly in his first five seasons with Phoenix. As a rookie, he came off the bench for 40 games, averaging 15.4 minutes per game.
Eventually, Warren earned a starting role in his third season (2016-17), playing 31.0 minutes in 66 games. Warren improved each season as a starter. He averaged 14.4 points per game on 53.9% true shooting and 5.1 rebounds. Warren took a leap In 2017-18, averaging 19.6 points per game with 54.9% true shooting while averaging 5.1 rebounds. Injury limited Warren to 42 games in 2018-19, but he continued his production at 18.0 points per game on 58.0% true shooting and 4.0 rebounds.
Following the 2018-19 season, the Suns traded Warren to the Indiana Pacers as part of a three-way deal that included three second-round picks and cash considerations. People affectionately referred to Warren’s first season in Indiana (2019-20) as “Bubble Warren.”
Warren was magnificent, averaging 19.8 points per game on 53.6% shooting (40.3% from three and 61% true shooting). But left foot stress fractures limited Warren’s time with the Pacers. Those injuries limited Warren to just six games in 2020-21, and he missed the entire 2021-22 season. In his comeback 2022-23 season, he only played 42 games, 26 for the Brooklyn Nets and only 18 for the Suns, in primarily a backup role.
Although he was healthy for the first time since 2019-20, Warren wasn’t on an NBA roster to start the 2023-24 season. After the Wolves chose not to bring back Justin Jackson on a second 10-day contract, they pivoted to bringing in Warren. In his minutes with the Wolves, Warren proved he deserves a second look by the NBA and perhaps a second ten-day contract.
Warren has been solid offensively. In his 64 minutes in four games with the Wolves, Warren is playing 16.0 minutes per game, averaging 4.8 points and having 2.0 rebounds and 0.8 assists. Considering that the Timberwolves immediately thrust Warren into action upon his arrival, it’s been impressive how he gained trust and play within the offense.
Warren has provided solid shooting from inside the three-point line, going 8/12 from two, including three of four from the mid-range. Warren has always relied on his midrange game, shooting 43.0% in 2019-20. Warren’s three-point shooting is his main concern because he’s only one for seven. Warren has never been an elite three-point shooter, averaging 35.2% for his career. However, he shot 40.3% in 2019-202, his last healthy season. Below is the glimpse of shot-making Warren has already shown, knocking down a semi-contest mid-range shot for the Wolves.
But Warren has shown the most promise defensively. He has adapted well to Minnesota’s defensive concepts and is posting a career-best 95.6 defensive rating thus far with the Timberwolves. That’s likely could be due to the Wolves finding a way to take advantage of his size.
Warren is 6’8”, 220 lbs., and has typically played power forward or small forward. However, he has played 43.3% of his minutes matched up on guards defensively and 44.5% of his minutes playing guard on offense. In 2018-19, Warren played only 23.9% of his minutes at guard. That’s because the Wolves want to play big, which has seemingly benefited Warren tremendously on the defensive side.
He uses his size and frame to stick with smaller players. That allows the Wolves to deploy Anthony Edwards or Nickiel Alexander-Walker on the better guard, using Jaden McDaniels or Kyle Anderson on the opposing team’s best forward and Gobert or Naz Reid to guard the opposing team’s best big. Warren then guards the opposing team’s third- or fourth-best player at any given time. Warren can do that, and the opponents he guards are shooting 46.2% from the field and 0% from three; Warren has also forced three turnovers.
Assuming Warren’s three-point shooting will trend upward to his career average, and assuming Warren’s defense is a sign of improvement and not an aberration, Warren could earn a second ten-day contract. The Wolves lost Karl-Anthony Towns to injury and could certainly use someone with Warren’s history of shooting. His ability to play guard and forward adds to Minnesota’s flexibility. With the Wolves currently in a four-horse race to get the one seed, the devastating news of Towns’ injury has provided the perfect opportunity for Warren to return to his 2019-20 bubble form.
