In 2003, the Cleveland Cavaliers drafted LeBron James first overall, and the San Antonio Spurs took Leandro Barbosa 28th overall. By all accounts, Barbosa had a good career. He played 14 years and averaged 10.6 points per game. Barbosa won a championship with the Golden State Warriors as the backup point guard in 2015. He even won a Sixth Man of the Year award in 2006-07. Barbosa was truly a steal, given where he went in the draft, and had a great NBA career.
But Barbosa is an exception and not the norm for 28th-overall picks. There hasn’t been an All-Star-level player selected at that pick since Tony Parker in 2001. That’s important to remember when considering that the Minnesota Timberwolves took Anthony Edwards first overall in 2020 and Jaden McDaniels 28th.
People have been more critical of McDaniels this season. Last year, his season ended because he broke his hand after punching a wall in frustration. The noise around McDaniels’ expectations got louder when he signed a five-year, $136 million extension in the offseason. With the Wolves battling for the top seed in the Western Conference, it’s easy to forget what McDaniels has already accomplished and that he is progressing normally.
McDaniels has improved his offensive rating in each NBA season, starting at 109.6 as a rookie in 2020-21 and sitting at 114.8 this season. Offensive rating is widely influenced by team offensive success. However, McDaniels’ rating this season is 0.6 points better than the team’s. However, McDaniels’ traditional stats suggest a slight regression. McDaniels is shooting 2.0% worse from the field and 4.7% worse from three this season compared to 2022-23. That has resulted in McDaniels scoring 1.6 fewer points per game. McDaniels’ assists have also dropped 0.5.
It’s important to state that McDaniels is often the tertiary option in Minnesota’s offense, averaging only 8.6 shot attempts per game and having the fourth-highest usage percentage among Minnesota’s regular rotation players at only 15.4%. For context, Rudy Gobert ranks fifth on the team at 15.3%, and Edwards is in the top spot at 31.6%. The lack of usage would suggest that McDaniels offensive improvements may be more subtle than the traditional stats show.
Advanced stats and shot tracking back up that notion. McDaniels is often a floor-spacer on offense. He relies on his teammates swinging the ball to him for a corner three-point attempt or receiving the ball off a back-cut. McDaniels is shooting corner threes well, hitting 41.5% this season, well above his 35.1% season average.
However, within five feet of the basket, McDaniels shows the result of these back-cuts and off-ball movement. McDaniels is shooting 68.0% from inside five feet, with 64.4% of his makes coming off assists. That suggests almost two-thirds of McDaniels’ baskets at that range are coming off his movement, ability to run the floor, and understanding of the offense.
For context, McDaniels’ bench replacement, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, is shooting 57.4% from inside five feet. McDaniels is still competent and succeeding in his role despite regressing with his overall counting stats.
McDaniels has also had a slight defensive regression. However, his defensive rating still proves he is still an elite defender at 110.0, ranking him 23rd best in the NBA among players who log more than 25 minutes per game. However, that’s the third-worst on the Wolves roster among all current players, mainly due to the team’s stellar overall defense. McDaniel’s defensive rating suggests that Minnesota’s defense gets slightly worse when he’s on the floor. McDaniels has also had a defensive decline in his counting stats, going from 1.0 blocks per game last season to 0.5 this year. However, his steals remained at 0.9, and McDaniels’ fouls per game have dropped from 3.4 in 2022-23 to 3.1 this season.
However, we must put this regression in context. Many players regress in their fourth season, likely because opposing teams have complex scouting reports that illustrate player tendencies and areas an opponent succeeded at through their first three seasons.
For example, Paul George similarly plateaued and regressed in his fourth season in 2013-14. George’s assists dropped by 0.6, and his rebounds per game dropped by 0.8. George’s field goal and three-point percentages leveled off before he drastically improved them in his sixth season. I’m not suggesting that McDaniels will someday play at George’s level. Instead, I’m highlighting that even the league’s best players have fourth-season struggles.
To further this point, the Warriors selected Jordan Poole 28th in 2019-20. He’s in the middle of his worst professional season after a step back in his fourth season last year. McDaniels may be leveling off or, at worst, seeing a slight regression in his fourth season, but it shouldn’t be alarming. McDaniels has proven he can thrive in his role and is working to break through this fourth-year wall. Still, with Karl-Anthony Towns likely missing the remainder of the season, the pressure on McDaniels to accelerate his development will become more dire in Minnesota’s chase for the 1-seed.
