Despite a few moments over the last couple days that haven’t been pretty, Jorge Polanco has solidified his standing as the starting shortstop of the Minnesota Twins. While he’s been aided by an adept defensive first baseman in Joe Mauer, who has saved his infielders three errors with scoops this year per Fangraphs, Polanco has quieted a lot of naysayers about whether he has the arm, or quite frankly the overall chops to play short.
Through the first five weeks of the season, there are already five excellent plays by Polanco up on YouTube:
Defensive statistics are already hard enough to trust, but they at least seem to confirm the eye test suspicion that Polanco is much better at short this season. Among 22 qualified shortstops, Polanco ranks second in defensive runs according to Fangraphs (plus-3.0), second in raw Ultimate Zone Rating, first in Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 Defensive Games, fourth in Out of Zone plays made (25) and sixth in Defensive Runs Saved (two). In a lot of those stats, he in some pretty elite company — like Andrelton Simmons, Francisco Lindor and others — or ahead of them.
In other words, while his bat has sagged a bit of late, it’s his glove that has kept him in the lineup. On a team where Eduardo Escobar is a more than capable backup and one where the team actively pursued a glove-first utility guy (Ehire Adrianza), Polanco has put a lot of the worries to bed about his defense — at least thus far into the season.
Much of the offseason talk surrounding the Twins centered on a potential Brian Dozier move, and how that could get Polanco over to second base and open up a path in the future for top prospect Nick Gordon. Now, with Dozier still donning red and blue and Polanco starting to pick it at short, does that change the future for Gordon, whom the Twins spent the No. 5 pick on in the 2014 draft?
The short answer is….it’s too soon to tell. And while that may seem like a copout, it’s important to remember that Dozier is only signed through the 2018 season. Beyond that, early indications are that this front office is not afraid to make difficult decisions on personnel. While trading Dozier is a much tougher PR hit to take than DFA’ing Michael Tonkin or Danny Santana, keep in mind that they shopped him all winter, and rather publicly — at least compared to what we saw in the Terry Ryan era.
All that really means, though, is that Gordon’s timeline shouldn’t be too much of an issue. He’s spent a full season at every level he’s played at so far, and if for some reason that trend continues, he’d be expected to start for the Twins on Opening Day in 2019, just after he turns 23. Now he may move more quickly than that and that’s OK too, because the odds of the Twins simply holding onto Dozier until his contract ends and then saying “Thanks, bye” aren’t very high, either.
To Gordon’s credit, he’s off to a tremendous start at Double-A Chattanooga. Through 28 games, he’s hitting .336/.403/.500. He’s already hit two home runs — which accounts for nearly one-third of the long balls he’s hit as a professional. He also has 13 walks, just 10 off last year’s pace but in nearly 370 fewer plate appearances. Percentages-wise, Gordon has more than doubled his walk rate from last year (4.7 percent) to this year (10.5 percent), which helps bolster his case as a future top-of-the-order hitter. The power bump has also been sizable (.164 iso this year; .089 career), which probably speaks more to his extra-base pop (doubles and triples) as a big leaguer more than anything. At six feet tall and 160 pounds — at least according to Fangraphs — it’s not likely that homers will ever be a big part of his game. Gordon’s similarly-sized brother Dee has never hit more than four in any season, for whatever that’s worth.
But with Polanco’s success at short, is Gordon’s future at second base? It’s a question that won’t necessarily go away, either, as there are some questions about Gordon’s ability to stick at short as well. The division of his playing time won’t quiet those worries either, as he’s split his time nearly down the middle between shortstop (14 games) and second base (12 games) with the Lookouts this season. Then again, in the interest of full disclosure, he’s been splitting time at the two positions with Engelb Vielma, a player who is likely going to be a glove-first utility guy in the majors who also needs to see time at short. Escobar’s nickname for him is “the Silk Hand,” if that tells you anything about his defensive chops.
Prospect writer Chris Blessing of BaseballHQ.com has had a front-row seat for a number of Lookouts games this season, and is thus a pretty reliable source for the skinny on Gordon this season.
“Nick’s success at Double-A thus far is in direct correlation to his approach,” Blessing told Zone Coverage recently. “Most guys take this promotion and try to be something they aren’t. Nick is staying within himself and reaping the benefits.”
One thing of interest — especially in light of his hot offensive start — would be the intricacies of Gordon’s swing. “His base swing is short and compact,” Blessing noted. “On fastballs, he does a solid job keeping his hands inside the ball and not over swinging. A lot of his contact is hard because it is made out in front of the plate. He’s staying back on the baseball and is powering up when the fastball is middle in and he drives it. He is tapping into more power, too.” That is evident not only in Gordon’s iso (isolated power, which is SLG-AVG), but also that Gordon roped an opposite-field triple, just missing a home run the night before Blessing spoke with Zone Coverage.
LISTEN: Chris Blessing breaks down current and former Lookouts on Midwest Swing recently.
Like most young hitters, Gordon has some trouble with offspeed pitches. Rather than staying compact like he does with fastballs, Gordon has a tendency to expand the zone and even collapse his back leg as he swings at non-strikes. “This is not uncommon,” Blessing advises. “Each level has its new difficulty for hitters. Double-A is where the average breaking ball is 2-to-3 times better than the previous level, which will contribute to his increased strikeout rate.” Big-time Twins prospects have each had their own struggles with breaking balls at Double-A, Blessing added. In his estimation, Miguel Sano figured it out in a month. Polanco needed a season. Byron Buxton, Blessing said, never really figured it out before he jumped.
OK, so what about defense?
Blessing has only seen Gordon at short. “He reacts well to the ball and gets to every ball his fringe-average range allows him to get to,” Blessing said. “He’s betting coming in on balls than moving vertically. His shortstop play is passable.”
But who does Blessing think is the better shortstop? Who has more range? “Gordon has a little less range than Polanco at the same time in development but has a much stronger arm,” Blessing suggested. “Nick has soft hands. When he does bobble a grounder, he doesn’t panic and stays within himself to complete a play. He’s probably a second baseman going forward. His arm can handle third, though we won’t know how good he’d be there until we see his reactions.”
With all this said, Blessing still thinks the higher ceiling at the position belongs to Gordon. “That’s the toughest question I’ve been asked in months,” Blessing replied with a chuckle. “The slightest edge goes to Gordon because of a stronger throwing arm. But a better defensive option at short would push both of them off the position. Polanco is rangier, no doubt. The issue has always been the arm. Polanco really bought into working hard on his footwork in 2015, mostly on throws.”
For his money, Blessing said, Vielma is the best defensive shortstop in the organization is Vielma, but he doesn’t have the bat to push either off the position.
On Polanco, Blessing noted that he’s been a fan since the days of Elizabethton, all the way back to 2012. “Polanco is one of my all-time favorite players I’ve scouted,” Blessing said. “I took a scouting trip with my friend and mentor Mike Newman to the Appalachian League when I was still green at prospect coverage. I learned more from the 2012 Elizabethton Twins and scouting those guys again in 2015 and ‘16 at Chattanooga than any other group. Polanco was an older kid on the squad and someone we didn’t identify as a prospect until we saw him in person. Good makeup. Good fundamentally at the plate. Easier to scout than most.”
Listen to Brandon on Midwest Swing
