One of the keys to successful sports wagering is tracking your bets. How’d you do? Where did you go wrong? With that in mind, each week we will take a look back at our weekend wagers and see how we did.
In a week the books dominated overall, we held our own – losing only $5 – but weren’t nearly as successful as the opening two weeks of the year.
Here were the six wagers we recommend in our weekend preview.
- Appalachian St. +3.5 vs Miami FL
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Result: Loss
Analysis: I mentioned this was a bookmaker’s line, with the books begging you to take Miami. The books were wrong. Miami did not get trapped in this game and blew the doors off the Mountaineers. They scored an 80-yard touchdown on their first possession. The fact the Hurricanes offense could move the ball through the air as well as the on the ground was a stark contrast to what Appalachian State faced against Tennessee to start off the year.
This game may have been different if Miami did not jump out to a quick lead as the Mountaineers had success on the ground, but this is not a team well equipped to win games through the air. They have an interesting matchup this week as they travel to Akron. Akron blew the doors off of a Marshall team they were GETTING 17 points from. The Zips are getting six points from the Mountaineers at home.
The public will likely be all over the Zips in this one, but I saw what happened to the Zips against the Badgers when they were absolutely steamrolled on the ground. Appalachian State may be well equipped to do the same.
- Mississippi +11 vs Alabama
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Result: Win
Analysis: A back and forth, gut-wrenching affair for those of us holding a Mississippi +11 ticket. Once again, the Rebels looked unbeatable in the first half, racing out to a 24-3 lead. The Landshark defense was making life miserable for freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts and an upset win looked like a possibility. Then Alabama closed the gap with a score and a punt return touchdown to trail by only seven at half. The wheels fell off in the second half for Mississippi, and suddenly, Bama was up 11 with five minutes to go. Ole Miss was driving and at least a push seemed like a sure thing. Then Chad Kelly was picked off by a defensive lineman that ran it back for a touchdown. Mississippi had gone from up 21 to down 18, and our cover was in jeopardy.
Chad Kelly then led one of the most important drives of his young career. The Rebels scored to bring it back to 11, then recovered an onside kick and scored again! An excellent cover.
- Ohio State -1.5 at Oklahoma
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Result: Win
Analysis: I’d been targeting this spot since the summer when the line was Ohio State +4.5. I didn’t want to invest too much at that time as I was already on the Oklahoma season win under. The public was all over the Buckeyes in this one without much line movement. Usually this makes me hesitant to side with the public, but I just do not like this Oklahoma team.
I was rewarded for that belief as the Buckeyes bulldozed Baker Mayfield and the Sooners. Samaje Perine continues to be one of the most overrated backs in the country, and the offensive and defensive fronts for the Sooners are just soft.
Not only did this wager cash, but our season total of Oklahoma under 10 wins is already a push at worst!
- BYU vs UCLA Under 49
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Result: Win
Analysis: I predicted a slow, defensive slugfest and this is what we got. Two late scores by BYU brought the total up to 31, still well under our number. The BYU defense is impressive, but their offense is just not good.
UCLA’s defense is also impressive, but their offense is not in a hurry and Josh Rosen misses a lot of throws. I expect another relatively low scoring affair against Stanford this week. They have the athletes to slow down Christian McCaffery and he accounts for an absurd percentage of Stanford’s offensive production.
- 6-point Round Robin Teaser with Penn State -2.5, Notre Dame -2, and Texas +2
Wager: Risk $100 to win $120
Result: Loss
Analysis: This was a disaster of a wager, moving us to 0-2 on the season for teasers. We might be avoiding these for a while.
Penn State did their best to lose this for us right out of the gate, turning the ball over numerous times against Temple. Luckily Saquon Barkley broke a big run late to seal the deal.
Notre Dame scored the opening touchdown, and then was dominated for the next 45 minutes or so. They were run over on the defensive side of the ball, and seemed set on running the ball into the heart of the Spartan defense rather than utilizing the arm of DeShone Kizer. They scored three straight touchdowns late to get within eight before inexplicably calling a timeout and THEN punting with only 1:30 left.
We still had a chance to win one of the teasers with Texas going up against Cal. Texas was up 14 early, but could not stop Davis Web and the Golden Bear passing game. I don’t think the Longhorns ran the ball enough and it cost them the game.
- Miami +7 at New England
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Result: Push
Analysis: Luckily this game was listed at +7 when I made my official picks on Friday. We were very lucky to come out of this one with a push. The Patriots destroyed the Dolphins prior to the injury of star quarterback, Jimmy G.
The Dolphins came charging back as the Patriots ran a very vanilla offense and scored late to get within seven. I’m not sure what we can take away from this game. Miami probably played worse than they are to open the game, but their comeback was largely fueled by the Patriots lack of aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. I’ve been a Texans backer in both games this season, but laying 2.5 points on the road this week against the Patriots might not be a great spot.
Overall Week Tally
Risk: $375
Return: $370
Profit: (-$5)
Season Total
Risk: $1089
Return: $1270
Profit: $181
