With 12 games left and a 55-95 record, the Twins are going to have to go 8-4 the rest of the way to stave off just the second 100-loss season since moving from the nation’s capital. To get a bit of an idea of how unlikely that is, the most recent stretch I can find where the Twins won eight of 12 games was July 29 to Aug. 9, when they went exactly 8-4.
And while rolling streaks can be hard to monitor over a 162-game season, consider this: the Twins have already played 17 games this month, and won just six. They’ve had three months this season in which they won eight or fewer games, and they won just nine in August.
The Twins can play spoiler, though. Nine of the team’s 12 final games are against teams with at least some playoff aspirations. The Twins begin a three-game tilt on Tuesday with the Tigers — a team currently holding playoff odds of 24.3 percent via Fangraphs. After that, Seattle comes to town for the final series of the year at Target Field. The Mariners are holding steady at 22.1 percent. And finally, the Twins hit the road one last time to square off with the Royals, whose hopes are on life support with 0.4 percent playoff chances. Chances are, there’ll be a lot more clarity with regards to their situation before that series takes place, but they’re still in the mix — unlike the White Sox, whom the Twins wrap the season up with.
With the state of the team as-is, here are the things I’d like to see the rest of the way:
No. More. Bunts.
Look, I get it, I understand why people want Byron Buxton to be good at bunting. He’s so fast! He could get so many hits that way! But I’ve grown pretty weary of hearing the following every single time he comes to the plate: “Let’s see if he tries to drop down a bunt.”
Think about it this way: the gap between Buxton being a subpar MLB player and an All Star was never going to be bridged by bunting. There might be some short-term value gained if Buxton could become a good bunter, but this is singling out one iffy tree in a forest full of them. Buxton has been an uber, super duper star at every level he’s ever played. He’s never had to bunt for any reason. So think about all the things he already has to learn at this level — uh, hitting comes to mind — and now you want him to work on bunting, something that might refine his game but won’t save his career by any means? I’m just not sure I understand the logic.
Buxton is tall and lean and doesn’t look as big on TV as he does in person. This kind of feels like Carlos Gomez 2.0, when someone that size should be focused on driving the ball. And I realize this smacks of saber snark from team “no bunts” like it’s some Moneyball-driven, “bunts are always bad” manifesto. But we’ve seen in September what Buxton is capable of when he swings the bat. Since his recall, he’s slugging .705. You’re not going to do that by bunting.
Continued evaluation of the bullpen…..
Part of this has been borne out of a need to back off from Ryan Pressly and the previously-injured Michael Tonkin, but it looks like manager Paul Molitor has been trying to get big outs from guys like Alex Wimmers, J.T. Chargois and to some extent, Pat Light — all guys who weren’t even on the team when the second half started. Chargois was at Rochester, Wimmers wasn’t even on the 40-man roster and Light….was with the PawSox.
The surface level numbers don’t look good. Chargois has an ERA over 5.00 and almost as many walks as strikeouts. The same is true of Wimmers, except he actually does have the same number of walks as strikeouts. Light’s case is even scarier, but you see the potential in there with a guy who throws in the high-90s with an inconsistent splitter. That splitter has flashes, though, as it has been absolutely filthy when he’s got it under wraps.
But anyway, the continued commitment to Chargois and Wimmers has had some payoff in September. Chargois has a 3.24 ERA this month, with a 9-3 K/BB ratio (8.1 innings) and just a .138/.219/.172 opponents’ triple-slash line. And besides that, after failing to get much going on the swinging strike front — a good barometer of how dominant a player’s repertoire is — in August, this month has been far better. After posting just a 7 percent swinging-strike rate in August, Chargois has doubled it this month. For some context, here are some relievers at or around 14 percent for a whiff rate this year: Kyle Barraclough, Mychal Givens, Justin Wilson and Matt Bush. All of them are considered strong strikeout guys. The future is bright for Chargois.
The future isn’t nearly as bright for Wimmers, but frankly just making the big leagues is a huge win for him based on all the adversity he’s handled. Since getting rocked on Sept. 2 against the White Sox in a mop-up role — three earned with only two outs recorded — Wimmers has cleaned it up to the tune of a 2.57 ERA, .547 OPS against and 7-4 K/BB ratio in seven innings. It’s a small sample and it’s not exactly dominant, but if he can survive the offseason on the 40-man, he could be the long man heading into next year. That will be an uphill battle, especially with what’s likely to be a new front office coming in and having virtually no equity in Wimmers — awesome story or otherwise.
….which includes auditioning a closer for next year.
One way to back off Pressly the rest of the way would be to install him as the closer-in-training. I don’t mean that as a joke based on how the Twins have played lately — I get why that’d be a thing though — and I’m sure this wouldn’t sit well with Brandon Kintzler. But with Kintzler getting roughed up lately — 10.29 ERA, 1.017 OPS against in September — it might be time to start thinking about next year at the end of games. Glen Perkins is almost certain not to be ready, and Kintzler makes more sense in middle relief, especially as a guy putting out fires with groundball double plays.
Pressly has pretty much everything you look for in a modern closer. And while his stuff still hasn’t equated to all that many strikeouts — 7.8 K/9 this year — he sits 95 mph with his fastball and has double-digit whiff rates on his curve and slider. Plus, he’s #Texan. Here’s a list of Twins who’ve averaged 95 mph or higher with their heaters this year:
- Pressly
- J.R. Graham
- Alex Meyer
- Chargois
I think Pressly is the logical choice here.
Kennys Vargas as much as possible at first base
With Joe Mauer ailing and Vargas mashing, this makes just too much sense. There’s still a debate to be had regarding what Vargas’ future value is, and some of that debate lies on the defensive side, where he still has his moments but appears to be more polished than the previous two years, to be sure.
Vargas is hitting a staggering .277/.393/.580, and while that may not be necessarily sustainable, it has brought his career line to .263/.322/.446 over 553 MLB plate appearances in 146 games. In other words, you’re working with about a full season worth of games for Vargas with 22 home runs, 68 runs scored, 71 RBIs and a .183 iso. Even with some regression, that’s the kind of bat that can help a team while he’s cheap.
There’s some reason to believe he’s turned things around offensively, too. The strikeout rate is still high, but he’s more than doubled his walk rate (16.3 percent presently) as he’s chasing fewer pitches out of the zone than ever before (25.2 percent this year, 32.8 percent career) and just flat out swinging less (39.2 percent this year, 47.2 percent career). He’s cut his swinging strike rate by 3 percent as well, and his batted-ball profile is now more fitting of a player his type. After posting GB/FB rates of 1.4 and 2.2 over his first two years, he’s now at 0.8. Translated, it means he’s hitting the ball in the air a lot more than before. Considering big Kennys is probably not going to leg out too many infield hits, this is important.
As much of John Ryan Murphy as possible
He’s looked a lot more Murphy-like since his return, hitting .263/.318/.421 while making five starts and appearing in eight games. Frankly though, he should be playing every game — or at least as much as a starting catcher would. That isn’t a slight to Kurt Suzuki, who for all his defensive woes has been a warrior back there and has turned his offensive game around considerably this season, but it’s just an assessment of how much figuring out the future back there matters.
Mitch Garver is going to be added to the 40-man roster in the offseason, and will be breathing fire down Murphy’s neck — not a bad thing — as the two likely jockey for playing time back there next year. That is, unless the new braintrust does something crazy like sign Wilson Ramos, or something less crazy like bringing in Jason Castro. But anyway, there’s still plenty to like about Murphy, who has had his moments with the bat in the past. Baseball Prospectus has him listed as the third-best pitch framer in all of baseball, behind Yasmani Grandal and Buster Posey. For a team that still lacks the swing-and-miss stuff of other teams, stealing strikes is paramount to success. Murphy should be a big part of that.
A continued commitment to Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios
This is pretty simple: they’re the two youngest starters in the rotation with the highest potential. Duffey isn’t far from turning 26, so there isn’t much of a chance he can be ruined by being put through the wringer the rest of the way. Even if his future is in the bullpen — and if his two-pitch mix continues, that’s probably true — there’s nothing lost by getting a couple more starts to evaluate here before season’s end.
Berrios is a bit different, as there isn’t a ton of encouragement to be drawn from his recent starts, but there’s also nowhere to send him in the meantime. Maybe a couple outings out of the bullpen would make sense? That’s not to say the Twins have a viable starter to take his place, but again it doesn’t really matter at this point. If what’s best for Berrios is a couple clean innings out of the ‘pen, you can let Johnny Allstaff make a couple starts in his place to get him right heading into 2017.
