The Minnesota Twins’ ownership group called 2016 a total system failure, which became an infamous phrase. While this season will end up better than that team’s franchise-record- 103-loss season eight years ago, it has been hard to find optimism with the 2024 Twins. After 21 games, they are in fourth place in the AL Central with an 8-13 record. Several factors have led to the poor start for the reigning division champions.
Minnesota played back-to-back series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles, and they went 1-5 in those series. Injuries have piled up fast, with some of the team’s most talented players ending up on the injured list. Jhoan Duran, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Carlos Correa are all on the shelf, having missed all or most of the early games. Regression has held back critical contributors from last year’s team. As a result, the Twins have had high strikeout numbers and poor production with runners in scoring position.
Some of Minnesota’s issues aren’t related to chance. However, it’s easy for fans to believe that the Twins are under some kind of injury curse. Or at least the team is in a multi-week run of bad luck. Not everything that has gone wrong for Minnesota is due to some kind of cosmic justice.
Still, Minnesota’s luck has to turn around at some point, right?
There’s reason to believe that the Twins can start to turn their fortunes around in the next few weeks. Their upcoming schedule is full of opportunities to climb back toward .500. The Chicago White Sox have had a historically bad start with only 3 wins through their first 22 games. The Twins will play them seven times in their next 10 games.
However, starting May 14, the Twins will play three games against the New York Yankees and three against the Cleveland Guardians. Therefore, they can’t rely on the schedule alone to stay afloat in the AL Central. Still, they can survive poor injury luck and inconsistent play by stacking wins against the White Sox and Angels.
The Twins must improve their numbers with runners in scoring position to take advantage of the schedule. They have an abysmal .142 average with RISP, the worst in baseball. Despite the bad start, Minnesota turned their fortunes around a year ago. After a slow start in the first half of last year, the Twins finished sixth in baseball with a .811 OPS with RISP in 2023.
This year, the Twins have another opportunity to turn around their success with ducks on the pond. Their production in those high-leverage situations must improve. However, the unit has done a good job of getting into RISP situations. Minnesota has 176 at-bats with RISP, which ranks 22nd in the league. Again, it doesn’t sound like much. But imagine how many more wins the Twins get early in the season if they hit 22nd in baseball with RISP compared to 30th.
Strikeouts are still high, with a 26.5 percent strikeout rate that’s 27th in baseball. Although that’s not a huge shock, what is uncharacteristic is the Twins lineup’s lack of long balls. Twins hitters have only combined to hit 18 home runs in the first 21 games, which ranks tied for 24th in baseball.
Minnesota’s struggles play into this, but the warming weather may also cause its bats to heat up. Either that or the opportunity to play teams like the White Sox (28th in team ERA) or the Angels (25th in team ERA) is a golden opportunity to address their offensive issues.
Injury news has been hit or miss for the Twins, but it generally still points in the right direction. Lee went from an original back spasm diagnosis to a herniated disc in his back and will be out for at least two months. But Lewis is progressing on schedule with his quadricep recovery. Max Kepler returned from the IL on Monday and already has been a difference maker, with 3 RBI in his first game back.
Correa is progressing better than anticipated. He was originally put on the IL with an oblique injury, which the team classifies as a right intercostal strain. Instead of missing months, Correa will likely just miss weeks. Duran, their best reliever, will debut soon after beginning his rehab stint in Triple-A on Tuesday night. It will be a big break for a unit that has pitched well in his absence, with a 2.77 bullpen ERA that’s top four in baseball without their flamethrowing stud.
Compare what the Twins are doing now with Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer. The duo had useful roles in Minnesota as platoon bats and super-utility players around the field. It can be used more selectively at the plate to get the best matchup possible. In interim starting roles, the two have not been productive at the plate. Castro owns a .538 OPS with just one home run in 22 games, while Farmer has a .322 OPS and a .073 batting average in 17 games in 2024.
But it’s not just their hitting that’s been costing this team but their play in the field. Farmer currently has 0 outs above average this season compared to the 2 OAA clip he had in 2023 and anecdotally cost the Twins with an error at third base in Detroit on April 14. Castro at shortstop, one of the most demanding positions on the field, sits at 0 OAA in 2024. The Platinum Glove winner Correa is one of the best shortstops in team history for a reason, and having him back boosts Minnesota’s defense.
Getting two of the team’s best players back in the near future will give the team a jump start. The Twins should be able to claw close to the .500 mark by the middle of May before the schedule gets more challenging again. By that time, the Twins could potentially have Correa back. His great start and prowess at shortstop can give the team more muscle while waiting for others to come back.
Knocking profusely on wood, but the Twins have been in good injury luck with Byron Buxton. He came into the season reportedly feeling great after playing just 177 games over the last two seasons. However, it hasn’t been easy at the plate despite his health. But that seems to be turning around for Buxton. Since April 15, Buxton has a 1.000 OPS and a game-tying home run in the ninth inning on Tuesday. His 90.1 MPH average exit velocity is above the 88.4 MPH league average, and now that some of his bad luck has washed out, he’s returning to being a hitter the Twins need at the top of their lineup.
No baseball team can punch their ticket into the playoffs during the first month of the season. However, plenty of baseball teams have eliminated themselves from the playoff race in the first months due to bad luck, poor play, or some combination of the two. Minnesota may not be in total system failure territory, but they need a reboot. If they can keep the season from falling apart in the next few weeks, their talent will show over the entire season. The Twins have been unlucky in 2024, but their luck could turn around soon.
