Embattled Minnesota sports fans have been conditioned to expect the worst-case scenario. That being said, not even a three-game losing streak to end the season could knock the Golden Gophers off the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
On the other hand, with regular-season games remaining against Nebraska and Wisconsin followed by at least one conference tournament game, Minnesota has the opportunity to go from a feel-good team just happy to be in the Big Dance to a real contender that may have a chance at reaching the Sweet 16.
“We’ve got a lot of season left, a lot of great opportunities in front of us,” said head coach Richard Pitino. “So it is nice that we don’t have to sort of play under the cloud of the bubble talk, this and that. But with that being said, there’s still things that we can be playing for. Top-four seed, double bye in the conference tournament’s huge, NCAA Tournament seeding. Every game that you win, you improve that.”
The Big Ten title is still technically on the table for Minnesota.
The next step for Minnesota is clinching a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which would grant them a double-bye and give them a favorable matchup in the tournament quarterfinal on March 10. They may have to win their final two games to accomplish it, however.
The Big Ten title is still technically on the table for Minnesota if Purdue loses out, Minnesota wins out and a few other chips fall the right way. On the other end of the spectrum, the Gophers could conceivably fall as low as the 7-seed if they lose their last two. The conference has a logjam with the third through seventh-place teams separated by one game.
The tiebreaking procedures in the Big Ten are a bit confusing, but they’ll certainly be coming into play this week. As it stands right now, the Gophers are locked in a three-way tie for third place with Michigan State and Maryland, but they are at the bottom of that tiebreaker because of their combined record against the Spartans and Terrapins.
Michigan State (vs Minnesota): 2-0 (plays at Maryland March 4)
Maryland (vs Minnesota): 1-1 (plays vs Michigan State March 4)
Minnesota (vs Michigan State and Maryland): 1-3 (done playing both teams)
So that’s not good for Minnesota. Its two early-season losses to the Spartans are looming large, making it vital for Michigan State to lose if Minnesota wants a better seed. Tom Izzo’s group has two tough games to close the season, at surging Illinois and at Maryland.
If the Spartans were out of the picture, Minnesota (10-6) would suddenly have a very favorable outlook as far as tiebreakers go. It beat Northwestern (9-7) head to head. They beat Michigan (9-7) head to head. It beat Iowa (8-8) head to head. It would also own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Maryland. Why? Because if teams split the regular season series as the Gophers and Terrapins did, then the second tiebreaker is the teams’ record against the conference leader — that’s Purdue. Minnesota beat Purdue; Maryland didn’t.
That head-to-head win over Purdue is also why the Gophers still have a shot at the regular season title, though it would require the Boilermakers to lose a home game against Indiana and a road game at Northwestern.
More realistically, the Gophers could have a chance to clinch the 2-seed with a season-ending win at Wisconsin this Sunday. A win over the Badgers would even the season series, and Minnesota would own the tiebreaker thanks to its Purdue win.
Again, most scenarios hinge on Michigan State losing one game. The Spartans are suddenly the dark horse of the Big Ten, having won six of eight including knocking off Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon.
“I don’t want to be complacent with where we are.”
Big picture: If the Gophers can win their final two games, they will probably get a double bye and a great chance to win a conference tournament game. Even if they bowed out in the conference semi-finals, Minnesota would then have a 25-8 record. That would be virtually identical to the records Maryland, Purdue and Indiana posted last season heading into the tourney, and all three were awarded 5-seeds.
There’s a big difference between a 5-seed and, say, a 7. Five seeds often play a similarly-talented 4-seed in the second round and have a great chance to reach the regional. Seven seeds, however, usually face a top-10 team in the nation in the second round.
The Gophers are flying high at the moment, but they have a lot more left to accomplish as the calendar turns to March. “In my mind, the goal hasn’t really been reached yet,” said forward Jordan Murphy. “We still have some games to go. We’re still trying to get better every game. I don’t think we’ve really reached our full potential right now.
“I don’t want to be complacent with where we are.”
