College rivalry games are great for two reasons.
First: The hate that fuels the game between two specific teams brings an entirely new energy to a stadium, matched by few atmospheres in the world. Years of fans told to hate a team, telling their kids to hate a team, building up animosity year after year plays into the game. All the festering losses and shining victories over the years bring meaning to a game day like no other.
Second: Hope is always there for the underdog team. The crazy comeback, the kick-six potential, it is all waiting there. The dog in every rivalry truly believes it can win, despite the odds. Even when it is crazy, even when it is far from possible, the underdog still comes in with a glimmer of hope that is only there on rivalry weekend.
That brings us to today’s rivalry. The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers sit tied at 59 wins apiece since the two started playing in 1890, making it the longest active FBS rivalry. While the rivalry has been even though the ages, lately it has been a lopsided affair, with Wisconsin on a 13-game winning streak since 2004. The stakes are high in every game between the two teams as they play for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, but this game will be even more intense because of the added stakes.
No. 5 Wisconsin is contending not only for a conference title, but also a playoff spot. Because of the Badgers’ weak schedule, their only chance is an undefeated record, which is where Minnesota can find motivation.
This week, head coach P.J. Fleck surely pounded home the underdog, nobody-believes-in-us mentality. Minnesota’s only chance to say in this game is punching Wisconsin in the mouth right away.
Goliath – Wisconsin
Jonathan Taylor is the best freshman running back in college and maybe the best freshman player in the country, period. He is third in rushing with 1,657 yards this season on 238 carries, averaging a crushing 6.96 yards per carry while racing to the end zone 12 times. He has posted eight 100-yard games, topping 200 yards in three performances. Taylor can run in between the tackles with conviction and also shift gears to the edge, burning defenders in the open field. Defenses have yet to find a formula to take Taylor out of the game.
Taylor also runs behind an offensive line that has played at an elite level, with the Badgers averaging 239.3 rushing yards per game. The Badgers average 5.1 yards per carry as a team, a particularly impressive stat because, in college, sacks and tackles for loss count against the rushing totals. Speaking of sacks, Wisconsin has allowed only 17 on their quarterback, second lowest in the Big Ten.
On the other side, the Badgers defense has swapped places with Alabama for the top spot in total defense throughout the season. Wisconsin allows 13.1 points per game and 246 yards, 79.4 of which are on the ground. They have racked up 37 sacks and 76 tackles for loss, paired with 23 turnovers.
Much like the Gophers, the linebackers are what give the defense its teeth, with senior linebacker Garret Dooley leading the team in sacks and tackles for loss with 7.5 and 10.5, respectively. Fellow linebackers Leon Jacobs and T.J. Edwards are tied for second at 8.5 tackles for loss. Andrew Van Ginkel and Alec James are tied at second in sacks with 5.5 each. The problem when matching up with this defense is that the linebacking corps is filled with playmakers that will impact the game.
This is all without mentioning a secondary that has nine interceptions and two touchdowns. Joe Ferguson and Natrell Jamerson alone have six picks and the two scores. Moving the ball on Wisconsin will be difficult at best, impossible at worst.
David – Minnesota
The Gophers are long shots to win this game. They have nothing to throw at Wisconsin, no surprising twist or new scheme. They are not deep enough, talented enough, healthy enough, disciplined enough or experienced enough to beat this Badgers team. Minnesota is a 17-point home dog, and Wisconsin probably covers. That is the bleak truth.
Minnesota relies heavily on a running game, but that means they’ll be throwing their best offensive asset at the best part of the Badgers defense. The weakest part of this Badgers team is quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who has thrown 13 interceptions. But the Gophers defense is not stout enough to force the game out of Taylor’s hands and into Hornibrook’s.
The one chance Minnesota has to keep the game interesting is playing with passion early; busting out of the locker room and taking a quick lead. Take the kickoff and drive right down the field for a score. Taking an immediate lead and capitalizing on turnovers early would have them hanging around. But much like they did against Michigan, the machine that is Wisconsin will roll out another win.
Prediction
Wisconsin wins 34-16 with a stout defense holding Minnesota to field goals instead of touchdowns early before settling in and choking out the offense in the second half. Taylor goes for 175 yards and two scores. Gophers safety Jacob Huff records two picks, and the Badgers front racks up five sacks.
