It’s a bit overcast but the temperature is perfect for baseball as the Minnesota Twins prepare for game two against the Tampa Bay Rays. After taking a 5-2 loss, the Twins look to even the series as they sent rookie left-hander Adalberto Mejia to the mound. The Rays will counter with righty Jake Odorizzi.
More on that in a bit.
The Twins will be donning camouflage uniforms today, and I managed to snap a picture of Max Kepler’s so fans could get a look before the team takes the field:
Here’s how the Twins will attack Odorizzi, who has faced the Twins three times in his career:
As you might notice, that’s a lineup without Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Jason Castro. Manager Paul Molitor wanted to back off Sano as he’s struggled a bit of late (0 for his last 13 with 10 strikeouts, including fanning in seven straight at-bats) and it feels like maybe that notion was galvanized when Sano whiffed on three sub-90 mph cutters against Rays closer Alex Colome to wrap up the eighth inning Friday night. It’s Sano’s first day off this season, at least of those not mandated by the MLB corporate offices.
“Like we always do, we like to have a bit of an idea going into the series on days you might give people a blow along the way,” Molitor said. “Especially when we’re looking at a stretch of whatever it was before yesterday, 48 games in 48 days? You try to make sure you keep guys as fresh as possible. With our outfield, we’ll take Buck out today and get Robbie’s bat in there against Odorizzi. I wanted Vargy still to be in there, so that was a way to do that. In the infield, Polanco’s been one of our steadiest guys. I’m just going to try keep him fresh as well. Adrianza has played well when we’ve given him a chance — both defensively and swinging the bat. We’ve all seen Miguel fighting here a bit the last couple days, so we’ll back him off.”
Here’s how the Rays will counter against Mejia:
Odorizzi has been solid for the Rays this season, as he’s posted a 3.14 ERA with solid secondary rates (7.7 K/9, 0.95 WHIP). FIP hasn’t cared for him much this season (4.48), though that’s in large part to his unsustainable BABIP (.207) and strand rate (84.4 percent) and the fact that he’s giving up home runs by the bucket load (1.7 HR/9).
That Odorizzi gives up lots of fly balls (33.9 percent groundball rate) might make him a good matchup for the Twins, or any offense, considering almost all extra-base hits come through the air. “It depends,” Molitor said on if he felt a fly ball pitcher like Odorizzi was a good matchup for his offense. “I wouldn’t say we’re a good high fastball hitting team. We have a lot of guys that I think are better down in the zone. You see guys consistently, whether it’s the guy today or others we’ll face, that will try to elevate on our team. We’ll have to do a good job to make sure we don’t expand up.”
Odorizzi doesn’t throw particularly hard, as he averages 91.6 mph on his fastballs, most of which are of the four-seam variety. He throws a lot of splitters (28.3 percent this year), and will mix in a cutter/slider and curve. His fastball has been very good this season, as he’s posted a 13.5 percent whiff rate on it via Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x. The split (12.8 percent) is really good, too.
Chris Gimenez, who will catch Mejia today, told me that he felt the Royals were a good matchup for the young lefty last time out. Mejia has alternated struggling with his fastball in some appearances and his breaking ball in others, and hasn’t been able to sync the two up yet this season. His fastball was working against the Royals, one of the worst hitting teams in MLB this year. He’ll have to have his breaking ball working against the hard-hitting Rays on Saturday, however; they’re first in the AL with 71 home runs (courtesy of three against the Twins Friday night) and are also a very patient club (10.1 percent walk rate, fourth in MLB).
Here’s an interesting scouting report on Mejia that says things better than I’m able to from a colleague of mine at Fangraphs named Jeff Zimmerman. He comes away unimpressed with Mejia’s repertoire, though it wasn’t a day where the young lefty had his best stuff. He’ll need to take a step forward to keep these Rays at bay.
Molitor also noted that the Twins don’t exactly have a long man in the bullpen after Adam Wilk was designated for assignment on Friday night with Justin Haley working the last inning that night as well. In other words, they’re hoping to get some length out of Mejia in this one. “If he can do some of the things he did last time around, he should give us a chance,” Molitor said.
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Happy birthday, Jose!
Twins righty Jose Berrios turns 23 today. On Friday night, I showed him this tweet of a mocked-up cereal box with him on it:
“Is that here?” Jose asked, wondering if the box existed outside of Twitter. Even after telling him not, he had a big smile on his face. “That’s pretty cool!”
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Injury Update
Molitor said that Perkins came through his side throwing session on Friday doing just fine, and now the plan is for him to throw on Tuesday. The team is toying with the potential of having him face batters on Tuesday, but either way he’ll throw that day with the next tangible step being Perkins heading down to extended spring training to ramp up.
There were no new updates on Phil Hughes with the exception of him still likely seeking a second opinion. He hasn’t pitched — or even picked up a baseball, Molitor said — since going on the disabled list on May 22.
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Notes and Quotes
- The Twins are expecting 25,000 fans at Saturday’s game.
- Joe Mauer is one home run and one walk away from passing Jacque Jones and Kent Hrbek, respectively, on the team’s all-time lists. He’s currently 12th in home runs and third in walks.
- The Twins are 13-7 when they score first this season, but still a respectable 12-12 when opponents score first. They are also 18-3 when they outhit their opponents.
- Molitor on what he has seen from Vargas at the plate: “I think Kennys is still learning how to apply information and how he swings and what a guy might try to do to him on a given night, and take a plan up there and trust it a bit more rather than just going up there hoping to get a good pitch to hit. He’s been fairly steady, especially from the left-handed side. He’s driving in some runs, getting some big hits. He had some good at-bats last night to get the RBI and that double in the ninth to give us a bit of life. We’ll keep trying to find the right spots to keep him in there.”
- Molitor on the approach against Odorizzi: “We’ve seen him a fair amount in spring training and the last couple years. He knows how to use his stuff. He’s not afraid to pitch backward. He takes advantage of his ability to elevate with two strikes. When a guy has a good split-change and can elevate the fastball, it’s a tough combination to protect against when you’re behind in the count. He does a pretty good job of making it tough for our guys in that regard. You try to look for good pitches early. Last night, we didn’t take advantage of the few mistakes Archer made.”
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