In late June 2014, vaunted industry publication Sports Illustrated declared a full three-plus years in advance that the Houston Astros would win the 2017 World Series. At the time, it seemed a bit preposterous. Uber-prospect Carlos Correa was almost exactly a year from making his MLB debut. So was Lance McCullers Jr. Alex Bregman was still a year from being drafted. Jose Altuve was good, but wasn’t quite JOSE ALTUVE yet. The same goes for Dallas Keuchel.
The Astros were halfway through a season where they’d finish 70-92. After April, the Astros were never closer than 8.0 games back of the division leader that season.
The monster that SI created steamrolled through the Twin Cities over the last three days, leaving behind it a smoldering, flattened mess with the Astros logo branded onto it.
Even after dropping two of three games at the hands of the Rays at Target Field, things couldn’t have lined up better for the Twins heading into the series. They polished off a pretty good Orioles club in three straight games at Camden Yards. The O’s came into the series with four losses in their home yard all season before the Twins nearly doubled that total. The Twins won game one in comeback and blowout fashion, then held tight to a couple close wins to complete the sweep.
The Orioles are no pushover no matter where they play. They’ll be in the thick of things all season long in the AL East.
And after a rough Rays series, the Twins still had their three most reliable pitchers lined up to face the Astros: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Hector Santiago. If that wasn’t enough, the Twins were lined up to miss the two best pitchers the Astros have had all season in Keuchel and McCullers. Things went from good to great when it was announced that Charlie Morton wouldn’t make his scheduled start at Target Field because he was going on the disabled list with a right lat strain.
The 33-year-old Morton has been a revelation for the Astros this season after signing a multi-year deal, as he’s throwing harder than ever while getting strikeouts at an unprecedented rate, all while still managing to keep some of his trademark grounders in the mix. Even more excellent was that the Twins wouldn’t have to face young flamethrower Joe Musgrove, who also went on the disabled list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder. Add to that the existing injury to starting pitcher Collin McHugh, and the Astros were basically throwing the B-squad at the Twins at Target Field against Nos. 1-2-3 for the Twins.
It hardly mattered.
That’s not to say the offense faltered that badly; they scored 18 runs in three games — a solid 6.0 per game that should keep most teams in the mix on any given night. Even the rotation wasn’t that bad, as the trifecta of Santana-Berrios-Santiago gave up a combined 11 runs in 18 innings, with virtually all the blame falling on Hector, who allowed six earned runs in as many innings as he soaked it up in the finale for a taxed bullpen.
The taxing of the bullpen actually began in the finale of the Rays series, as a blown save by Brandon Kintzler led to a 15-inning debacle that featured too many bunts and even a cameo by Santiago in the final inning. He took the loss, as he allowed a pair of solo home runs that provided the final margin in an 8-6 defeat for the Twins.
That snowball continued rolling unchecked, even despite the fact that the Twins put up a seven spot on Astros starter Brad Peacock — a holdover from the previous Houston era — and reliever Jordan Jankowski in game one of the series. Peacock, for what it’s worth, made 28 appearances (24 starts) for that 2014 Astros team, posting a 4.72 ERA with ugly peripherals.
Big Erv gave the Twins seven solid innings in the first game of the series, but came out after throwing a season-high 114 pitches. That’s when all hell broke loose. Three Twins relievers each recorded an out in the eighth, and in the meantime, the Astros broke through for 11 runs — five against Ryan Pressly, three against Craig Breslow and three more against Matt Belisle — which sent all the takes in the universe spiraling out of control.
One puzzling take was why Santana wasn’t allowed to pitch the eighth, but the primary one was why manager Paul Molitor didn’t use the two reinforcements called up to his disposal to hold the Astros at bay. The answer, as simple as it seems, was that with six outs left to go, even with a six-run lead, Molitor was going to go to his guys to close out a win over the team with the best offense in the game.
READ: In defense of Molitor’s bullpen management on Monday
Ultimately, it does make sense. Jason Wheeler and Drew Rucinski — a pair of minor-league lifers with zero and minimal big-league experience, respectively — couldn’t have reasonably been expected to keep the Astros offense at bay. They were brought up to give the bullpen some length in the event of a short start by Santana (not terribly likely), Berrios (a bit more likely) or Santiago (maybe even a bit more likely, since he worked in relief on Monday and has struggled in recent outings). If they were used and the Astros started a comeback, only for Molitor to then turn to his higher-end guys after the fact, that looks even worse in retrospect. Instead, most of the takes were grounded in hindsight rather than well-rooted baseball theory.
Nevertheless, you can’t win ‘em all. But as the old adage goes: “Win today, deal with tomorrow later.” In a process over results sport, it’s more like “(Try to) win today, deal with tomorrow later.”
And of course, the Twins found that out the hard way all series long. Rucinski came in after the brutal 11-run eighth and did little to douse the flames, as he allowed a three spot in the ninth and was back with Rochester before he went to sleep that night in favor of lefty Buddy Boshers. In a way, it was a bit odd to bring up Rucinski in the first place, as he’d thrown 3.1 innings just two nights prior, while Boshers was much more well rested.
Wheeler ultimately did get into a couple games, but did little to show he truly belonged and was ultimately designated for assignment after the series finale. After being outrighted off the roster following the 2015 season, Wheeler can refuse the assignment if he clears waivers, but it’s unclear if he’d do that. He’s never pitched in any other organization.
Game two was perhaps less painful, but delivered the same result as the Twins inexplicably couldn’t get to Astros starter Mike Fiers — who had a 5.00-plus ERA and had allowed more than a 1.000 OPS — while Berrios struggled with command and had to battle to finish five innings. To Berrios’ credit, the game didn’t get out of hand like it might have in 2016. But still, he had no feel for his changeup and barely threw it (four times), and had to gut it out until handing the ball over to Boshers for a pair of innings followed by Wheeler making his MLB debut in a 7-2 loss.
Not getting to Fiers made almost no sense. He’d allowed the most home runs among any pitcher in the game — in under 50 innings, no less — and yet the Twins still only got five hits against him. Worse yet, they were all singles and the only extra-base hit of the night came off a Jason Castro double in the ninth inning with the game out of hand.
This was probably the most winnable game of the series.
The bullpen brutality came roaring back on getaway day Thursday afternoon. Santiago churned through six innings allowing as many runs, but the Twins got back into the mix as Castro blasted a homer to dead center off his old friends and Tony Sipp to get Minnesota to within a 6-5 deficit. Could a comeback be at hand?
No, instead the Astros outscored the Twins 11-1 the rest of the way, as neither Pressly nor Tyler Duffey got an out before allowing six earned runs in the seventh inning. Breslow cleaned up their collective mess, but by then it no longer mattered. Wheeler’s second appearance in as many days was nothing to write home about, and it started with a home run by Evan Gattis on the first pitch of the day from the burly lefty.
How bad did things get in the bullpen to end the series? Chris Gimenez made another pitching appearances — his third of the season. According to Jay Jaffe of SI, Gimenez became just the sixth position player since 1969 and third since 2000 to make three pitching appearances in a season.
If nothing else, the series provided a measuring stick of how the Twins stack up against the best the AL has to offer
This is even crazier when considering it was before June!
And so, here’s the bullpen final carnage for the weekend (by my tally):
- 26 earned runs in nine innings
- Three relievers dismissed (Rucinski, Pressly, Wheeler)
- The team moving to dead last in reliever ERA (5.33, next worst the Rangers at 5.00)
How’s this for crazy: The Twins bullpen allowed at least as many earned runs in the Astros series (26) as three bullpens did in the month of May. Those bullpens are Cleveland (2.09 ERA, 20 ER), Los Angeles (2.20 ERA, 24 ER) and Arizona (2.79 ERA, 26 ER). For the month, Twins relievers had a 6.41 ERA.
If nothing else, the series provided a measuring stick of how the Twins stack up against the best the AL has to offer. But if that wasn’t discouraging enough already, think about all the advantages the Twins had coming into the series — including being at home, which hasn’t even been mentioned yet. And it still got this bad.
It won’t continue to be this bad, and the Twins are still technically in first place….but it became clear this week that they still have a long way to go before the “But what if they’re legit?” questions need to be asked.
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