After watching the Minnesota Timberwolves go winless during a three-game road trip to all but end its hopes of playing in the playoffs, many followers are now suggesting the team “tank” in order to improve its odds of adding yet another talented, young player to its core.
The Wolves entered Boston last Wednesday with hopes of playing well above .500 basketball to end the season and earn the eighth playoff spot in the Western Conference. Three losses later and needing a minor miracle to reach the postseason — combined with many fans being exposed for the first time to a very deep potential draft class for the first time in the NCAA Tournament — has resulted in many who are suggesting Minnesota prioritizes its spot in this summer’s draft before the result of its remaining games.
That would be incredibly foolish.
First of all, assuming the majority of freshmen who are expected to enter the draft actually do, this may be the deepest draft in the last decade. There’s no big incentive to get to a certain spot on lottery board when it’s pretty likely the entire first half of the first round would have been considered a top-five prospect in other years’ drafts.
Even in the 8-10 range — where Minnesota currently sits — it is very likely the Wolves would have the chance to select someone like Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac or Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen to join their front court.
MINNESOTA SHOULD BE DOING EVERYTHING IN ITS POWER TO GET FANS IN THE BUILDING TO WATCH TOWNS, WIGGINS AND COMPANY PLAY NEXT SEASON
There is also no guarantee head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau would even want a high first-round pick — even in such a deep draft. Another young piece to an already talented core would be nice, but the Timberwolves already lack veterans and cannot be in “rebuild” mode forever. If the right offer came along, it would not be shocking to see Thibodeau pull the trigger on a deal to move the pick on draft night for an established veteran.
If the Wolves were to tank, there is no guarantee they would have a drastically higher draft pick than if they would play out the remaining 12 games of the season. Currently, Minnesota owns the eighth-worst record in the NBA, sitting a half game “ahead” of New Orleans — who owes its pick to Sacramento. The next closest team behind the Pelicans is the Dallas Mavericks, who have two more wins than the Timberwolves. Looking “up” on the draft lottery standings, Minnesota has one or two more wins than Sacramento, New York, Philadelphia and Orlando. It’s easy to look at that list and be enticed by the idea of tanking in order to get closer to the fourth or fifth spot in the lottery.
It probably will not be that simple. Sacramento traded away DeMarcus Cousins and is 2-10 in its last 12 games; being in a full rebuild suggests the team has every incentive to lose. Orlando traded away Serge Ibaka and half of its wins in March have been against Philadelphia and Phoenix. Speaking of the 76ers, it is not easy to out-tank them. Without Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid on the floor, they have no incentive to win.
The final team, New York, appears ready to move on from point guard Derrick Rose. The Knicks have every reason to tank to improve their odds at a chance to select one of the draft’s premier guards. They also have one win in the last five weeks that wasn’t against Orlando or Philadelphia. The chances of falling behind more than one of these teams in the standings is incredibly unlikely.
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Finally, perhaps the most important reason why Minnesota should try to win as many games as it can between now and the end of the season: It needs to send the right message to both the players and the fans.
Even if the Timberwolves did not reach some of the lofty expectations — some set by themselves — placed upon them before the season, the young team can still build on the season with a strong finish. The Wolves were unable to close out several games early in the season and it’s likely it will cost them a playoff appearance. The experience gained trying to close out wins in the final 12 games would greatly outweigh percentage points in the draft lottery. Sooner or later, the team needs to possess a winning attitude, and instructing players like Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns to lose games would not help that process.
There is also the fans to think about. The Timberwolves fanbase has not seen their team in the postseason since 2004; throwing away the last handful of games in a somewhat disappointing season would not sit well with many fans. The Timberwolves rank 29th in attendance — only ahead of Denver — with 14,508 fans per game, and could easily fall into last place by the end of the season. Minnesota should be doing everything in its power to get fans in the building to watch Towns, Wiggins and company play next season.
Throwing away the final four home games of the season is not going to help the sales pitch.
