With the Las Vegas expansion draft looming, the Wild have some decisions to make before submitting their protection list this Saturday morning. In the end, it seems like it comes down to deciding between a few players on the roster. Wild fans may be surprised by some players protected or exposed this weekend, so I’ll make the case why each of the players who are borderline would be exposed.
For Wild forwards, it’s pretty obvious Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle will be protected. That leaves two open spots between Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker and Eric Staal.
Nino Niederreiter
Admittedly, this is a tough argument to make, and it’s likely a very good chance that Nino is protected. But he isn’t a complete lock to be protected, and that’s simply because of his contract situation. While Coyle has a team-friendly deal for a few years, the similarly productive Niederreiter is a pending restricted free agent this summer. If for some crazy reason the Wild feel like they can’t get a deal done with Nino, and can’t unload him in a trade either, perhaps Nino is exposed.
In the end, the Wild’s points per 60 minutes leader should be protected, and statheads and Swissophiles together can rejoice. Exposing Nino would be a massive red flag in the Wild’s player evaluation report card, and hopefully, a long-term deal can be struck with him this summer.
Jason Zucker
In Zucker, the Wild hold the rarest of trump cards in the NHL Expansion deck, in that he is the lone NHLer even remotely tied to being from Las Vegas. So while the Wild would likely love to hang onto Zucker for a multitude of reasons, his carrot being dangled in front of Vegas would likely be much too tantalizing for them to resist. Simply put, if you expose Zucker, it’s nearly certain that they’d take him, or at least that’s the hope.
If you expose Zucker, it may just wipe that whole “which defenseman do we protect” question smooth off the board, along with the concern of losing Staal, who isn’t as young and valuable as Zucker, but one could argue is much more important to the actual success of the team for the duration of both of their contracts. Also, Zucker is the least productive of the three players, tallying as many points this season (47) as Pominville, whom most Wild fans want fired into the sun. Finally, it is worth noting is that Zucker isn’t an RFA like Nino, but is on a bridge deal, so a good upcoming season could reap a nice payday for Zucker, who will be an RFA again in 2018.
Eric Staal
As mentioned above, Staal was a huge part of the success for the Wild this season, and his insertion into the middle of the Wild lineup had ripple effects that benefited nearly every forward on the roster. Staal is 32, and on a very team friendly deal, with just $3.5 million per year left for two more seasons, one could argue that it’s imperative that the Wild keep Staal around at least through the end of his contract. If unprotected, Staal could be a popular player for some to have Vegas take with the intention of ‘flipping’ him for picks or prospects, either immediately or at some point during their inaugural season.
However, it’s the 32 that may be enough to scare Vegas away. The Golden Knights will be looking to build up a team for the future, and when talented youngsters literally a decade younger in Jonas Brodin or Matt Dumba are available, it’s hard to see the argument for Vegas taking a veteran such as Staal. Nino (24) and Zucker (25), however, are different stories, given their respective ages. If the Wild expose Staal, they’re doing so to protect the youth that they do have, rather than the production that Staal brought last season.
Essentially, they’re calling Vegas’ bluff that they’re looking to build a young team and taking the chance that flipping Staal isn’t part of that plan. But that’s assuming the trade return for Staal would be greater than getting Brodin, Dumba or Scandella in the expansion draft, which is certainly up for debate.
Speaking of the Wild defenders, it’s pretty obvious and has been for a long time that a decision must be made. Ryan Suter is guaranteed a spot, and Jared Spurgeon for all intents and purposes is as well. This leaves one lonely spot for either Dumba, Brodin or Marco Scandella.
Do the Wild have the option of keeping all of them? Of course. They could choose to protect eight skaters instead of seven forwards and three defensemen, but — with the NMCs for Parise, Koivu and Pominville, protecting four defensemen means exposing all but one of Granlund, Coyle, Niederreiter, Zucker and Staal, which is just not happening. So here we are, picking a defender.
Matt Dumba
Dumba has been a popular pick among Wild fans to jettison due to his perceived lack of defensive skills and penchant for turnovers. Many are frustrated with Dumba’s lack of quick development at the ripe age of 22 and already want to pull the plug on the Wild’s top scoring defender per minute. While the potential is clearly there with Dumba, some think he’s still far from reaching it and would prefer Brodin or Scandella’s better defensive game to Dumba’s two-way skillset.
Exposing Dumba is much like exposing Zucker in that there probably isn’t much of a question whom Vegas would select if he were available. Dumba’s combination of youth, pedigree as a top-10 pick, and relative production in his short career makes him a wanted commodity, as we’ve heard every time a new trade rumor pops up, such as the sweepstakes for Ryan Johansen, Jonathan Drouin, and even rumors around Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall last summer. If Dumba were exposed, Staal would be safe, Brodin and Scandella would also be safe, and it would take much of the uncertainty out of the draft for the Wild.
Jonas Brodin
Brodin’s value is still fairly high in today’s NHL as a very young and capable defender. There have been plenty of rumors swirling around Brodin’s trade value as well, which makes sense for the Wild, who would rather get a return for Brodin than lose him for nothing. However, if the Wild can’t deal him, they may just expose him as opposed to Dumba because of handedness and cap hit. Brodin is a lefty, as are many Wild defensemen, including Scandella, and Dumba is a righty. Brodin’s $4.16 million cap hit is much larger than Dumba’s $2.5 million hit and would be much nicer coming off the books for a team that’s already strapped for cap space.
Beyond that, the Wild may just prefer Scandella and/or Dumba to Brodin because of his one-dimensional game. As much as Dumba struggles on the defensive end, and Scandella isn’t inspiring in either end at time, Brodin is virtually non-existent on the offensive end of the ice. Brodin scored 0.14 goals per 60 minutes, least of any regular Wild player this season, and though he racked up assists with regularity, most were of the secondary variety, meaning the goal may or may not have been generated by Brodin at all. And while Brodin’s defensive play and numbers are good, they’re not that good, as you would expect from such a stay-at-home defender.
Marco Scandella
In what feels like a near-lock, the Wild will expose Scandella to Vegas for a multitude of reasons. First, he’s older (27) than Brodin (23) or Dumba (22). Second his $4 million cap hit is barely less than Brodin’s, and definitely more than Dumba’s. Third, his handedness also comes into play here, as he’s yet another left-handed shot that the Wild have plenty of, including Mike Reilly, who would be jockeying for more NHL time next season, regardless of who the Wild lose in expansion.
Most importantly, Scandella had a pretty rough season, bordering on abysmal. Of the regular five Wild defenders, only Dumba’s possession numbers look worse (and they were defensive partners most of the season), but he had virtually no offense to counterbalance that like Dumba did, mustering just 13 points in 71 games. While Scandella did step things up in the playoffs, it seemed, his atrocious regular season is likely to scare Vegas away and make him safe from being poached by Vegas, making him a very popular choice to be exposed by the Wild.
The Wild have some decisions to make, to be sure, and those decisions will alter the course of the franchise for years to come. While it’s fair to want the Wild to make the right choices, it’s also fair to understand that the right choices may not be popular either. Hockey fans are fortunate to have something exciting like this during their offseason, so enjoying the ride may be just as important as lamenting losing a good player. The NHL probably only has one more expansion draft in its future, so we should savor them while we can.
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