If just the first five quarters of the Wolves and Rockets series were counted, the score would have been Wolves 124 – Rockets 122 — given that the Wolves lost by three in Game 1 and then led in Game 2, 23-18.
This is definitely some convenient gerrymandering given the final result leaving Houston but it does warrant mentioning given the negative noise that seems to be cocooning the team.
Yes, that negative noise is warranted in many ways; Karl-Anthony Towns converted a mere five buckets — and four free throws (on ten attempts) — in the first two games, Jimmy Butler’s health looked somewhere closer to 50 percent than 100, and there were clear, vocalized differences in philosophical belief from the team’s point guard and its head coach. However, amongst all of that, a fact remained: the Wolves were keeping pace with the best team in the NBA through the series’ first 60 minutes — on the road, no less. And thus: Amidst that baggage, lies a nugget of positivity.
“The defense, overall, has been very good,” said Tom Thibodeau at the team’s Friday afternoon practice reflecting on Games 1 and 2. “We’ve had one bad quarter… I thought in Game 1 we (defended) well enough to win and then Game 2 we got off to a great start.”
The numbers bare this out; the defense was good. While those numbers also have a noise about them, through the two games the Wolves have only given up 1.039 points per possession. For context, during the regular season, that would have been good for a top-10 rate.
But because the sample is small (and one-quarter rotten), the other and probably stronger proof of defensive wherewithal lies in the film we do have. To the eye, the effectiveness is confirmed; particularly in the pick-and-roll.
Part of this affirmation comes from the fact that even passable defense would have been a windfall given the preconceived notion that the pick-and-roll was supposed to all but end the Wolves in this series. The Rockets were a top-seven offense in creating points out of the pick-and-roll when either the ball handler scored or the roll man scored, per NBA.com/stats.
Worse: Chris Paul and James Harden diced the Wolves with pick-and-rolls to the tune of 1.3 points per possession in the two team’s four regular season matchups.
The assumption was strong that incessant Clint Capela and Harden/Paul ball screen actions would be the slow, steady death march of the Wolves. It hasn’t been. Converse to the narrative, it has been a realm of defensive strength.
Towns particularly has done a good job of forcing the ball out of Harden or Paul’s hand in these pick-and-roll motions. This a boon given the frequency in which Towns was the foil of these plays during the regular season. In the pick-and-roll, it became the assumption that the Wolves’ defensive tentpole would either over-commit to stopping the ball or be late into his drop. This series has been the contrary; Towns has not been the weak link. Effectively, the Wolves big man has toed the line of Harden/Paul blockade and backline defender while remaining keenly aware of Capela.
On this play, Towns reads the ball; not the screener. The screen suggests that Towns should come up on Capela’s right hip, but Towns recognizes that Harden is rejecting the screen. By simply staying dropped, Towns remains a presence in the action. Sometimes just not being out of position is enough.
[videopress GiriGvhF]Harden’s barrage came from a plethora of step back attacks and isolated drives when the step back was overpursued by the defense.
This proclivity of Harden led to numerous easy dump-offs to Capela. This isn’t to say that it is okay to allow those two to punish the Wolves, but there is an inherent difference between a defensive possession where Capela sets a screen and the plays in which Harden is in iso-mode and finds his big after the help (rightfully) comes.
[videopress p7SeT7ns]Harden is a beast in these isolations. Actually, he’s the best ever when measured on a points per possession basis. Of players with 200 isolation plays this season, Harden — at 1.22 points created — topped the list of the only six players in the league who created more than a point per possession in such plays. Paul was second at 1.10, per NBA.com/stats.
Points Per Possession In Isolation
Isolation dominance is the toughest aspect of the game to contain as this type of play literally pulls one defender away from the rest of the action and leaves them alone; without a system or scheme to fall back on — like the pick-and-roll permits.
“We were struggling to make shots,” Rockets’ coach Mike D’Antoni said after Game 1. “Struggling to really have any kind of rhythm of play and James put us on his back.”
Wolves forward, Taj Gibson, who was often left watching Harden’s dominance 20-feet away from the action, echoed this sentiment. “Every time the game was ‘mono e mono’ and they were in a tight spot, he just took over the game.”
Which is all to say, there is an element of unstoppable to Harden when he is cooking, but it does not mean he is holistically unstoppable.
In Game 2, the isolation dominance was not there; Harden shot 2-of-18 from the field in that game and forced the Rockets to futilely stay with that play or go back to the pick-and-roll. When the Rockets did go back to the pick-and-roll, the Wolves could “guard him with the whole team,” said Thibodeau when describing the success.
That — team defense — is the controllable defensive variable in the series. Isolation is not. Against Harden (or Paul) one-on-one, the Wolves really have no choice but to play Russian Roulette. But when a blank is drawn — like Harden’s performance in Game 2 — the capitalizing on the other elements of the defense presents an opportunity. Through the first five quarters of the series, the Wolves can hold some solace in the notion that when the opportunity to play team defense arose, particularly in the pick-and-roll, they did a good job.
The 3-point Attack
The scary part with defending the Rockets is that even if the first two boxes are checked — Harden/Paul are not cooking in isolation and the pick-and-roll coverages are on point — that the Houston 3-point brigade is waiting in the wings. In Game 2, this is what sunk the Wolves.
“We did a lot of good things in the first quarter,” recounted Towns at Friday’s practice. “The second quarter they got a little hot from 3. I think they shot 6-for-15. Gerald Green hit 4-for-5, I believe. Those little things, when you’re allowing them to utilize their strength like we did — and letting them hit 3s at a high percentage — it hurt us.”
It did hurt the Wolves. Harden missed all five of the shots he took in that quarter — including four 3s — but Green was waiting in the wings to pick up his teammate. The first of Green’s four makes instigated what became a run. His fourth three finished the run at 26-to-5, in favor of Houston.
“We were struggling and Gerald does that,” said D’Antoni. “He gives us a big spark.”
“He was a game-changer,” said Eric Gordon.
The thing with Houston is they have a roster full of game-changers. And Wednesday, they are likely to get back Ryan Anderson, who did that nearly every time he faced the Wolves during the regular season. His 12-of-24 shooting from deep propelled Houston to a plus-57 in his 91 minutes he was on the floor against the Wolves during the regular season.
That’s basically cheating. But, this is Houston.
Where the Wolves can improve upon their commendable defense is that when Game-Changer X begins wielding, that they stave off the intensity with their own formidable offensive attack.
Offense Can Be Defense
“We’ve got to fight fire with fire, man, they can score the ball but we can too,” said Jeff Teague on Friday. “I think we’ve been so focused on defense and what they can do and not focused on what we can do.”
Optimistically reading through the lines here, Teague’s comments are not saying that the Wolves should ignore the defensive end but rather not be deflated when their formidable efforts still lead to points — or a lot of them. The Rockets runs are coming one way or the other, the Wolves have to stave off the burn.
This is possible. On a per-possession basis, the Wolves scored a toothpick of .014 points per possession less than the Houston machine in the regular season. Yes, the Wolves offense is not the free-flowing, whimsical dominance of the Harden crew but it did work. They will need to go back to their bludgeoning offensive style that aesthetically will profiles as more of a paint-dop than brushstroke when juxtaposed on Houston’s.
How do they do this?
“What we’ve been playing like hasn’t worked. We lost both games and we played at a slow pace, I think we played right into their hands,” said Teague, again, pleaded for change. “You gotta attack fast. Instead of just eyeing KAT down in the post trying to get him the ball we gotta make multiple plays and multiple efforts — swinging the ball, driving it and then if he still has a little on him that he can seal in the paint, try and get it to him.
“We gotta get him to get out and run. We get the rebound, we gotta take off and try and bury the guys down because they’re coming, they’re gonna double and he knows that. He’s gotta face up, be strong with the ball, and make quick moves. But we gotta find a way to make him get out and run and get some easy touches.”
This sounds like a lot of work: Slow down Harden, play great pick-and-roll D, survive the 3-point barrage, and play with better, more effective pace. It does. But it does seem possible. And, at the end of the day, this is the price of admission after falling from the 3-seed to the eighth.
The Rockets were the best team in the NBA and their arsenal shows it. This is the opponent, like it or not. The Wolves have to muster the manpower to suppress Houston’s cavalcade. You can’t stop him, you can only hope to contain him! was always one of the best Dan Patrick lines from SportsCenter back in the day and it should be the Wolves mantra in this series.
They can’t stop Harden or the Jacob’s Ladder effect that emanates from Houston’s flow, but they can contain it. Slow down Houston enough, for 48-straight minutes and a win is possible. They’ve shown it in stints, but if they are going to be more mess than meta, this series is going to be over quicker than you can say Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
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