Six months, 81 games, 19,540 minutes of gameplay, and 63 flights ago the Minnesota Timberwolves began a season with what can only be described as high expectations. Vegas set the bar at 48.5 wins; a signal that made breaking the 13-year playoff drought not only an expectation but a mandate.
From the owner to the President of Basketball Operations, no one was running from this quota; a Jimmy Butler trade had more than justified the quantum leap.
Butler’s impending presence had an immediate effect on the locker room. Before the season started, I had the chance to talk to Andrew Wiggins and he told me he would only declare the season a success with a playoff berth. When I questioned if the eighth seed was enough, he quickly corrected himself and said “a playoff run” was the line in the sand of success versus failure.
At Tuesday afternoon’s practice, Wiggins stuck to his guns. Jace Frederick of the Pioneer Press asked if the season would be a failure if the Wolves missed the playoff. Wiggins’s response: “Basically. (Then) everything we did is for nothing.”
To avoid that failure, Wiggins and the Wolves control their own destiny. A win against the Denver Nuggets at Target Center and they’re in. A loss and the season is “nothing.” To fulfill Wiggins’s preseason prognostication of “playoff run,” the team need not only win but find a way to put pressure on their first-round opponent.
That pressure can be best applied by having as high of a seed as possible. Entering Wednesday evening’s action, that seed can be as a high six; with a chance at both the seven and eight seed due to factors out of their control.
Potential Playoff Seedings
6-Seed: 2.1% chance*
Scenario 1: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Spurs win (over Pelicans), Grizzlies win (over Thunder), Blazers win (over Jazz).
Opponent: Portland Trail Blazers — Minnesota and Portland split the season series 2-2.
Scenario 2: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Spurs win (over Pelicans), Grizzlies win (over Thunder), Jazz win (over Blazers).
Opponent: Utah Jazz — Minnesota and Utah split the season series 2-2.
7-Seed: 24.9% chance*
Scenario 1: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Pelicans win (over Spurs), Grizzlies win (over Thunder), Blazers win (over Jazz).
Scenario 2: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Pelicans win (over Spurs), Grizzlies win (over Thunder), Jazz win (over Blazers).
Scenario 3: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Spurs win (over Pelicans), Thunder win (over Grizzlies), Blazers win (over Jazz).
Scenario 4: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Spurs win (over Pelicans), Thunder win (over Grizzlies), Jazz win (over Blazers).
Opponent (in all four scenarios): Golden State Warriors — Golden State won the season series 2-1. The home team won every game.
8-Seed: 33.9% chance*
Scenario 1: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Pelicans win (over Spurs), Thunder win (over Grizzlies), Blazers win (over Jazz).
Scenario 2: Wolves win (over Nuggets), Pelicans win (over Spurs), Thunder win (over Grizzlies), Jazz win (over Blazers).
Opponent (in both scenarios): Houston Rockets — Houston swept the season series 4-0.
*Odds calculated using fivethirtyeight.com’s CARMELO projections.
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