There is an energy in Minnesota.
On nights like last Wednesday, when Karl-Anthony Towns drops 56 points, it is an eager enthusiasm both in the locker room and amongst the fan base. But when a home loss to the tanking Memphis Grizzlies happens or a dismantling at the hands of Ricky Rubio and the Utah Jazz occurs, there is an inspired energy — in both the player and fans — that can be best described as anxious.
Following the loss to the Memphis, Towns refused to talk to the media and again evaded questioning the next day at practice. Tom Thibodeau was also shorter than usual and even the typically effervescent Jamal Crawford passed on commenting. The only player on the Wolves active roster who answered questions that day was G League standout Amile Jefferson — who had just been added to the team.
A contention between the players and those who consume them had been percolating for months and a few of the worst losses in recent memory seem to have spun an animosity.
It wasn’t just the players; the fanbase was reacting to the results with boos, tweetstorms and blog posts. A disapproval that was largely directed at the head coach.
Jimmy Butler responded on Tuesday after practice. While he did acknowledge a lack of fight in the team, Butler came to the defense of his coach.
“Ain’t no coach in the world that can make somebody play hard,” said Butler. “Ain’t no coach in the world that can make anybody want it.”
Each action and each response seems to hold merit but it is also a bit jarring given the landscape. The reality is that the Wolves are having far and away their best season in 14 years.
Explanations for the behavior are tough. The best thing I can point to is fatigue.
The Timberwolves organization and the state of Minnesota quite simply are not used to six straight months of meaningful basketball, as traditionally the team is all but eliminated from playoff contention by the All-Star break. This year they are not. This year, it is all new, things aren’t going swimmingly, and all parties are confused.
Uncharted Territory
For the Wolves’ Thursday evening opponent (the Denver Nuggets), this is not the case. While Denver, much like Minnesota, has also suffered from the post-traumatic stress of losing a superstar, they are a step — or at least a year — ahead of where the Wolves are in their rebound to relevance.
One year ago exactly — April 5, 2017 — the Denver Nuggets found themselves sitting in the ninth seed and a half-game behind the No. 8 Portland Trailblazers. As of Thursday morning, Denver again sits in the ninth seed and a half-game behind the eighth seed Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans who are tied with records of 44-34.
In the creation of narratives, and because of this, the Nuggets can be painted as perhaps being hungrier than the Wolves.
They came up short last year, and this year it makes sense to say that Denver is desperate to show a playoff pedigree before dipping into the luxury tax this season to sign Nikola Jokic.
But Denver’s reality is not all that different than Minnesota’s.
The playoffs have also been a mandate for the Wolves and with Karl-Anthony Towns up for a $150-plus million contract extension this summer, the Wolves also may feel they need to show a playoff pedigree before jumping into the luxury tax.
Sure, Denver may have won nine more games (40) than the Wolves a season ago but in reality, the two franchises that play twice in the next six days mirror each other in their macro-arcs and their micro intangibles.
Injuries To Stars And Defensive Ineptitude
The Wolves have been without Butler for their past 16 games — a stretch in which the team has tread water to the tune of an 8-8 record. The team’s best player also missed six games early in the season. In all, Minnesota is 34-22 with Butler and 10-12 without him.
Paul Millsap may not be the Nuggets’ best player but he was functionally added to Denver to serve a similar purpose: Become a stabilizing veteran presence who can help mend an ailing defense. Due to an unfortunate wrist injury, that has not happened. With Millsap missing 44 games, Denver’s defense has remained holistically dismal.
A season ago, Denver had the league’s second-worst defense; this season they have crawled up to 27th.
It is a Wolves-ian balance of efficiencies in Denver: The defense leaves much to be desired but their offense has been good enough to steer the team to a 24-20 record with Millsap on the shelf. In those games, Denver had the league’s 18th-best net rating — points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions — according to NBA.com/stats data.
This is where a bit of a difference begins to shine through, that really just may be a testament to Butler’s value.
The Wolves have not been able to be average without a crucial piece on the floor; Denver has. With Butler off the floor — due to injury or just rest — Minnesota has a minus-6.5 net rating this season, according to NBAwowy.com. For context, this is a worse differential than the 21-56 Memphis Grizzlies have this season — and is only better than the blatantly tanking Bulls, Kings and Suns.
When both are healthy, Butler belongs multiple tiers above Millsap in the NBA’s hierarchy, but the Nuggets’ ability to stave off the absence has been more than commensurate. This is a credit to the surrounding pieces in Denver. Chief among them being Jokic who, amidst his many feats, is on his way to becoming the only player in NBA history not named Garnett or Chamberlain to average 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 6.0 assists in a season.
Operating Around A One-Dimensional Big Man
As great as Jokic has been on the offensive end, Wolves fans know all too well that having the type of player who solves every problem on offense but is the problem on defense can be a headache.
In adding Butler, some of that defensive strife was supposed to dissipate.
That, of course, hasn’t happened. Minnesota is again a bottom-five defensive squad, where they are joined by Denver. The Nuggets also thought they were purchasing help when they signed an All-NBA-caliber defender in Millsap. Even more so in Denver, it isn’t working. The Nuggets are actually better on defense when both Millsap and Jokic are off the floor, per NBA.com/stats.
There are parallels to Minnesota drawn here. In theory, Towns — a long and athletic big who has the capability to scat on the perimeter — would be better served in a more aggressive defensive scheme. But given the success Butler had with Thibodeau in Chicago, the Minnesota system asks Towns to stay home and drop against ball screens, functioning as the new Joakim Noah.
Conversely, Jokic — who lacks speed — is being asked to play with aggression on the perimeter this season. This shift has come because, well, something had to change but also because it is that style of defense that plays into Millsap’s strengths.
Questions of Millsap and Jokic’s fit have been present all year; just as they have with Butler and Towns. Simply adding a great defender has not risen all boats on either team. For both franchises, in the big picture, this inspires more of that anxiety.
Daunting Financial Futures Without Playoff Pedigree
This summer, Denver has a $1.6 million team option on Nikola Jokic. While that number sounds like a bargain and a no-brainer, there is some important baggage.
If the Nuggets pick up the option, Jokic becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019 — meaning he would be free to sign anywhere. If the option is declined, Jokic becomes a restricted free agent this summer — giving Denver the ability to keep him no matter what.
Tim Connelly and his front office will likely take the latter option but this comes with a baggage too — the luxury tax.
If they sign Jokic this summer, the Nuggets will almost certainly shoot well above the projected tax line of $123 million. The numbers are daunting because in Kenneth Faried, Mason Plumlee, Wilson Chandler and Darrel Arthur, Denver has nearly $50 million tied up in salary for next season. Factor in the $30 million Millsap will make and the four-year, $84 million contract extension Gary Harris just signed and the Nuggets are all but locked into this group.
Again, as Wolves fans know, locking into a core can be scary.
Minnesota is on the line for three more years and $50 million more of Gorgui Dieng. The Wolves just signed Andrew Wiggins to a five-year, $146.5 million extension that begins next season, and they also owe Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson a combined $33 million next year.
This too is their group.
At some point teams get expensive and the tax is a necessary penance to pay for being able to compete. However, the issue for Denver and Minnesota is that neither has earned the playoff pedigree that typically comes before the fat checks are cut. Which brings us back to the two matchups in the next six days. Likely only one of these teams is going to the playoffs, and who that is will almost certainly be determined by the victor of the matchups.
For Minnesota, winning one of the two games against Denver — provided they take care of the Lakers and/or Grizzlies — will likely lock up a spot. Denver probably needs to win both against Minnesota to crack the playoff field. In the altitude, and given the questionable health statuses of both Butler and Teague, Denver — who has been rolling this week with victories over the Thunder, Bucks, and Pacers — is probably the favorite against the Wolves on Thursday.
If the Wolves do fold in that matchup, a very likely scenario is shaping up in that April 11 at Target Center will be a play-in game for the postseason. For two teams who desperately want to develop a playoff pedigree, the stakes will be massive — both in the micro and the macro.
When asked about the coming stretch, Butler put it best:
“We just gotta get tougher,” Butler said on Tuesday. “We gotta play like some dogs with a sense of urgency.”
If that urgency isn’t there for Butler and his dogs, this offseason will be all sorts of interesting. If it is, playoffs here we come — and a collective deep breath can be had.
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