Timberwolves

ZONE COVERAGE ROUNDTABLE: Coming out of the All-Star Break with the Wolves

(photo credit: Brian Curski, Cumulus Media)

Hi friends. We’re back for another Zone Coverage roundtable. I’m Brandon Warne and as always will be the moderator.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have already exceeded last year’s win total and appear primed to get back into the postseason for the first time since the first Kevin Garnett era. Let’s talk to our Wolves experts on some of the burning topics of late.

Brandon Warne: OK, so the elephant in the room was the team’s purported interest in Derrick Rose. Now it sounds like that’s off the table. Do you think the steam has completely cooled there? Was there any to begin with?

Dane Moore: I sneaky think there was never steam. Marc Stein is the man, but let’s parse through his tweeted reports.

Feb. 8, 12:48 p.m.

Okay, there’s pretty strong language in “will try to sign Derrick Rose” but the segment of that tweet that I am looking at is “according to league sources.” This can be as vague as the idea that around the league there was an assumption brewing. The tweet does not imply that evidence has explicitly come from Rose’s or the Wolves’ camp.

Feb. 8, 12:51 p.m.

Three minutes later, Stein uses the terminology of “natural landing spot” which I interpret again as a simple sentiment percolating. To a pessimist — or optimist in this situation — this tweet could be viewed as a backpedal of sorts.

Feb. 10, 1:08 p.m.

Two days later, Stein appears to have some buzz directly from the Wolves’ camp. However, the terminology of “great interest” and “explore the possibility” is used. The vagaries come out at last.

Who knows?

Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part but I think this was never as serious as we may have initially gleaned. I believe the steam may have caught wind because of the fact that it came from Stein; not because it was firm in logic.

Tim Faklis: It’s incredibly hard to get a grip on what’s happening behind the scenes of the Timberwolves front office. On one hand, that’s a great thing; it ensures no changes talks getting influenced by outside sources.

On the other hand, it’s unlikely that a front office fronted by Tom Thibodeau would care about what “outsiders” think to begin with. My guess: there was some genuine initial interest in Rose from Thibs, but talks between he and his team cooled that interest. The obvious is that Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones have played well enough for a Rose signing to be unnecessary. But that doesn’t mean Thibs didn’t have any interest in a guy he once relied on.

The other option, which might be more likely, is that there was never interest. But that goes back to my original point: we never really know what’s happening with the Wolves front office.

David Naylor: I will not trust that Derrick Rose is not signing with the Timberwolves until March 1 — the deadline for free agents to sign with teams and appear in the playoffs — is dead and gone, especially after Jimmy Butler’s comments to the media at All-Star on Saturday.

Via Jerry Zgoda of the Minneapolis Star Tribune:

I don’t trust either Thibs or his star player to not make a decision based on emotion and past relationships rather than the past two years of play, in which Rose has barely played at a level worthy of an NBA contract, let alone playing time.

Brandon: Forget Rose. Who is your No. 1 buyout candidate to add to the Wolves?

Dane: This is tough because there is still time for players to be bought out. March 1 is the deadline for a buyout candidate to sign with a new team and be eligible for the playoffs. It could still be a full week before said player is bought out. We don’t yet have a great idea of who is on the market.

For example, I would love the idea of Vince Carter — for real and nostalgic reasons — but I have no idea if he will actually become available since he is currently still under contract with the Kings. Even if it isn’t Carter, my No. 1 buyout candidate is probably still under contract for a different team. If I’m being purely speculative (and realistic), I’ll say Corey Brewer. Why not? Third time is the charm, right?

Tim: I’ve heard Vince Carter’s name a few times, and he has to be the guy.

Okay, no he doesn’t, but I’d really enjoy it — and not just for nostalgic reasons. He’s still a (mostly) reliable shooter, and would bring another veteran voice into the locker room. There won’t be any truly stellar options by March 1, and Carter getting bought out is far from a guarantee, but he’d definitely be a fun option.

I mean, have you seen his 2000 dunk contest tape?

David: Had the Timberwolves gotten any leverage with a guy like Joe Johnson — committed to the Rockets — that would have felt pretty ideal. I’m not sure there’s a guy out there that fits what they need, which is the highest-value commodity in the 2018 NBA: either defense or 3-point shooting from the wing position. It would preferably be both, but any guy who can do both is as far away from the buyout market as can be.

It feels like they need to add a guy, but as has been said before: who are they going to add that will actually crack Thibs’ rotation from the guys out there?

Brandon: Would you have handled the trade deadline any differently?

Dane: I would have moved Cole Aldrich even if that meant attaching an asset to him. Aldrich’s deal is only guaranteed for $2 million of the $7 million remaining for next season, but that deal is going to eventually need to be moved if the Wolves plan on offering Jimmy Butler an extension this summer. Perhaps attaching Oklahoma City’s 2018 first-round pick — that the Wolves own from the Ricky Rubio to Utah trade — would have been a bit much but it also could have not only served as a dumping of Aldrich but also brought back a player who actually assists the rotation.

Cole is a great guy, but the team needs him off the books. A straight dump, with maybe a second-round pick, would have been worth it if for nothing more than the utility of an extra roster spot.

Tim: It’s hard to make a definite call without knowing what was available, but my quick answer is no. I would have explored deals surrounding Cole Aldrich – and, likely, the Oklahoma City first rounder – but it’s entirely possible that combination isn’t providing much traction anywhere around the league.

If that’s the case, I’m fine holding onto what this team has. They have clear collective holes, but they don’t necessarily have the assets for an immediate fix without overpaying.

David: I don’t think so. While the temptation to dangle the 2018 Thunder first-round pick that the Wolves own is real, the fact that only one first-round pick changed hands at all at the deadline seems to mean that owners and front offices are very highly valuing these picks, not just because the 2018 draft is expected to be very good, but because of the high value of rookie-scale contracts when balancing a team’s salary cap

Just look at Tyus Jones’ contract for a prime example of that.

The Timberwolves have some hard contracts to move, and some cheaper deals that are significantly higher value than their cap hit. It was always tricky to find deals that worked even in the fantasy world of the trade machine, let alone in reality. I agree with the front office’s decision to not do anything hasty this year.

Brandon: OK, who are the real Timberwolves? Is there any reason to believe they can find sustainability from what allowed them to be fifth in defense over a nearly one-month stretch, as Dane wrote about the other day? If so/not, what is this team’s absolute ceiling this season?

Dane: The safest bet is that the Wolves defense is not better than bottom-10 in the league. Sure they flashed for a month but given the rest of the season — and the quality of opponent over that month — that stretch appears to purely be a flash.

As I wrote in the article, only the Wolves, Cavs and Nuggets are current playoff teams in the bottom-10 of defensive efficiency. That’s concerning given how well the offense has played, perhaps unsustainably.

Even if the offense maintains peak efficiency there is a hard ceiling for this team if the defensive holds the status quo. I think their ceiling is the four seed. If I’m betting money on one spot, it is the five seed; matched up against the Thunder, on the road for the series.

Tim: The one steady aspect for this team has been its offense. Last year, they were 10th in the league in offensive rating. Adding Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jamal Crawford has improved the offense and now they’re pretty clearly top-five in that category.

Defensively, they’re still not there. I have trouble believing they’re as bad as they’ve been lately, but I also don’t buy their top-five defensive performance they had for a month. This isn’t to say they’re a “middle of the road” defense, either. What does that leave? Their defense is probably going to remain inconsistent as long as Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins continue to figure it out on that end. That likely puts them somewhere between the high teens and the low 20s as the year winds down. That’s not good in the long term, but it’s a step in the right direction.

David: The answer for me always lands somewhere between the two extremes they have shown this season. I’m optimistic that the final product this season will look much more like early January than February or November, mostly because of how much more rest the Timberwolves as a team will have through the games of March and April.

Entering the All-Star Break, the Timberwolves have played two more games than any other NBA team, which feels like it may have contributed to some of the lackluster efforts put forward in early February and late January. The team needed a break, and they have the All-Star Break and just 21 regular-season games to go, which are spaced much more kindly for Minnesota. I think that rest and preparation could tip the scales in their favor.

Brandon: In as few words as possible, what’s one thing you’ve liked and one thing you’ve disliked this season?

Dane: Is Taj Gibson even an under the radar answer here anymore? Dude has been nails and exactly what this team has needed — something I did not see coming. If Gibson’s ACL or Achilles would have burst in game one of this season I’m willing to bet the Wolves are barely over .500 at this juncture.

One thing I dislike? Andrew Wiggins’ energy level since the video game Fortnite Battle Pass 2 was released. I don’t know if this is actually a thing, but prior to the All-Star break, Wiggins was playing as if he had been up all night playing vids.

If Wiggins’ five-year, $148 million contract extension was a concern to you before the season, you should be freaking out now. I understand the investment in Wiggins, but this season has done nothing to make me change my opinion that his extension could be a major issue in the Wolves’ financial future. (I know, I know he’s trying on D but that is not a rationale for a max deal.)

Tim: I’ve loved watching wins for a change. For all the team’s faults, they’re winning games and are very likely going to end up in the playoffs at season’s end. The last time they did that, I was in seventh grade.

I haven’t always liked the route to which those wins have gotten them there. The defense has been terrible at times, and the statistically-great offense hasn’t always been pretty.

David: One thing I’ve liked: Tyus Jones. One thing I’ve disliked: Karl-Anthony Towns’ offensive usage.


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