Twitter was ablaze with the news that the Minnesota Twins had signed former Marlins and Tigers starter Anibal Sanchez to a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports was the first to report a done deal, and also reported that it was a big-league deal worth $2.5 million over one year with the possibility of doubling that total via starts-based incentives.
MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger passes on that the deal is not guaranteed, though it does mean Sanchez will get a 40-man spot — one step up from a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training.
Sanchez came over to the Tigers in the second-biggest deal between them and the Marlins — the other involved Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller — and after pitching well down the stretch in 2012 earned an $80 million deal over five years.
The righty, who turns 34 later this month, turned in two strong seasons to start the contract. He finished fourth in AL Cy Young balloting in 2013 with a 2.57 ERA in 182 innings in 2013, and the next year posted a 3.43 ERA in 126 innings as he was limited to just 22 appearances (21 starts) and 126 innings.
The last three years have been much more unsightly, and may serve more as a cautionary tale than anything.
It’d have been hard to find a Twins fan not in favor of signing Sanchez five years ago when he got the big deal from the Tigers.
And right now, it’s hard to dodge a burning torch or a pitchfork among Twins fans wondering why this is the move instead of something more substantive.
But maybe signing Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb to a four- or five-year deal isn’t the answer. And maybe Sanchez’s deal with the Tigers shows why. But the Twins’ deal with Sanchez doesn’t really feel like the proper counterbalance to that argument, you know?
Over the last three years, Sanchez has made 88 appearances (68 starts), and posted a 5.67 ERA. FIP is a bit more generous (5.01), but it hasn’t looked good. That’s over 400 innings, too — it’s not like we’re being hypnotized by a small sample size or even one really bad year ruining the other two.
He’s gotten progressively worse by ERA: 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41.
Looking for hope in Sanchez’s numbers begin and ends with his strikeout and walk rates, as he’s still fanned 8.2 batters per nine over this tough stretch — above his career rate of 8.0 — while walking just 2.8. But he’s allowed a WHIP of 1.43 — perilously high, and spells out his contact issues — and he’s allowed an MLB-worst 1.8 home runs per nine over that time frame.
The deal itself isn’t objectionable. A one-year deal worth $2.5 million — and not even guaranteed — is like putting a quarter on the green to mark your golf ball. You’d be more upset about losing the ball than the quarter, most likely.
But what it signals is that they’re promising a 40-man spot to a guy with virtually no upside, and in doing so are most likely going to use the 60-day disabled list exemption from Michael Pineda on him.
Unless they’re willing to designate someone like Kennys Vargas or Dietrich Enns for assignment to clear another spot on the 40-man roster — something we still don’t have much clarity on, but doesn’t feel all that likely — there remains the potential that this is the final move to round out a rotation that will be missing Ervin Santana for something between two and four weeks of the MLB season.
Is it impossible that Sanchez picks up the slack for Santana for a month or so, and opponents and fans are none the wiser? Sure. But it isn’t likely. In the PITCHf/x ERA, Sanchez has never really had a big arm — 93 mph in 2013 is his highest average heater velocity — and even now there’s still some stuff in there. His changeup has a career whiff rate of 19.7 percent, and he was right on the heels of that at 19.2 percent in 2017.
Opposing batters hit just .209/.254/.364 against his changeup last season. Good, right?
Look at what they did to his other pitches:
- Four-seam fastball: .319/.378/.586 (164 wRC+)
- Sinker: .327/.364/.519 (149 wRC+)
- Slider: .452/.500/.710 (230 wRC+)
- Curve: .447/.447/.737 (231 wRC+)
- Cutter: .330/.380/.711 (194 wRC+)
Do you want some comps on those numbers? That 164 is one point worse than what Joey Votto did to opposing pitchers last year. The 149 is one point above what Jose Ramirez did to opponents in 2017.
Those are two MVP candidates. Buckle up, because it’s going to get worse.
That 230 mark is three points below what Barry Bonds did in 2004, the year he only hit 45 home runs with a .362/.609/.812 slash line. We’ll bump the 231 up to Bonds’ 2001 season (235); you know, the one where he hit 73 home runs. Finally, the line on the cutter is roughly what Miguel Cabrera did in 2013 — the first full year he played with Sanchez on the Tigers.
It was also the year he won his second AL MVP in a row, with numbers almost identical to the year before, when he won the Triple Crown.
Some Tigers writers have taken to the idea that Sanchez picked up the slack as the team blew up last year, but even that isn’t entirely the case. In September last year — a small sample but also the most recent baseball we have to draw analysis from — Sanchez was probably their brightest spot. That isn’t saying much. While the rest of the Tigers crumbled around him, Sanchez posted a 4.88 ERA, 11.7 K/9 and a WHIP of 1.59.
Even still, in that month opposing hitters batted .310/.352/.448 against him. Then again, he allowed a .423 BABIP that month, so his FIP (2.83) and xFIP (3.35) look good, but that still feels a bit like grasping at straws after the previous 17 months of in-season pitching looked so bad.
Sanchez was reportedly a good soldier and leader/mentor in the clubhouse for younger pitchers, but right now it’s unclear just how much of that the Twins need. If this is just a temporary patch until Santana and Trevor May get back, it’s largely a non-issue.
If it’s the final move this offseason, all the good done by bolstering the bullpen and adding an intriguing starting arm for late this year and next will be undone — at least in the eyes of the fans.
I’m not saying put away your torches and pitchforks or anything, but this move feels discouraging, to say the very least. If the Twins are done adding pitching for 2018, they’re in danger of a very, very big regression from last year.
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