As I ponder the predictive numbers emanating from America’s citadel of broken dreams, I find myself humbled even before the beginning of another NFL season. Who am I to question a betting line honed with a bloodless scalpel by the finest minds of Las Vegas and its most perceptive gamblers?
What comes to mind is one of a few hundred classic betting jokes — all of which are based on the premise that all gamblers die broke.
You know this is an old joke because it features a bookmaker. I live not far from what used to be a diaspora of bookies, all of them ruined by the Internet. Many members of this somewhat honorable profession will sleep much better on Saturday night, but certainly not happier. They still need the action, just as I always have and always will. I suppose that most of those old bookies now wager on the Internet now themselves — a modernized but tragic example of the Stockholm Syndrome.
But, as always, I digress. So…it seems that Miller, a typically feckless sports bettor, is being desiccated by the morning line. By Week 14 he is selling plasma and hawking family heirlooms. So his bookie, Lefty, says, “Geez, Jones, maybe you ought to bet hockey instead.”
Lefty shakes his head. “Hockey?” he says in a tone just short of indignation. “What the hell do I know about hockey?”
Sadly, there is a poignant joke for each week of the football season, but I will endeavor not to tell all of them. For now it’s enough to make the point that I know even less than usual about the NFL on the first week of September. I stare at algorithms and PowerPoint presentations and even those pre-season guides published in April, but I find no elucidation. There are too many variables. Lies about injuries, seemingly hundreds of personnel changes, canned coaches, canny coordinators, reticent running backs, pouting punters and even Dolphins in the tank (not in keeping with the alliteration theme, but still almost too good to be true and yet it is).
So, if I were really intent on dispensing wisdom, I would look upon you as I see myself — namely as a tragic figure who keeps trying to push a boulder up a hill, only to have it shoved back down by bad calls and worse beats.
But I realize that I’m a fool, as opposed to a hypocrite, so I soldier on. Besides, where would this end if I just said, “Fuggetaboutit. You gotta be lucky to split, and then you’d still have to pay the juice?” Would anything change on Week 2?
Probably not, because Week 2 would simply bring another set of variables that I could not overcome.
Anyway, it’s a new season, and, as I have for the past 30-something years, I start with the decidedly mythical bankroll of a Big Dime — that’s $1,000 for the uninitiated — and, despite all the road signs that point to Failure U.S.A. I will try to end the season on the plus side. Last year was not very good for me — although I didn’t consider losing 25 percent of my stash as any kind of tragedy — but somehow, over the years I have actually won a bit more than I lost.
Besides, going broke is no longer the equivalent of wearing a Scarlet B on one’s hoodie. In case you haven’t heard, bankruptcy is now actually smart business. Who knew?
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Normally I like to go with three picks each week, figuring I have a chance to go 1-2 if I get a few breaks. But I’m hoping to break even this week and perhaps I’ll find inspiration or simply hollow bravado next week.
Baltimore at Miami
And speaking of Miami tanking…there are two ways of looking at this. The first is that everyone knows Miami is trying to lose, so laying the 6 1/2 with the Ravens is, inherently, no bargain. The other way is that this might be the only time this year you’ll have to lay only 6 1/2 vs. the Dolphins. Deep down — in the vicinity of my wallet — I know that this is an inflated line, but I am torn because I think the Ravens are going to be a lot better this year. Run-first QB Lamar Jackson didn’t get much prep time before taking over for Joe Flacco last year, and we are led to believe that he’s been practicing throwing the ball since the Ravens lost to the Chargers in the playoffs last year. The premise being that he’ll still run a lot, but also act like a quarterback.
But the Ravens, who amassed an average of 150 yards on the ground last year, will undoubtedly gain even more this year with Jackson playing an entire season and the addition of running backs Mark Ingram and rookie Justice Hill, from Oklahoma State. Miami, meanwhile, is devoid of almost every starter from last year, having replaced them with, let’s just say, not much.
The pick: Ravens 30, Dolphins 10 — Baltimore minus 6 1/2 for $40.
Houston at New Orleans
The Texans worked slavishly to bolster their offensive line since Houston tapped out against Indy in Houston’s one playoff game last year. By then, Watson had suffered a cracked rib, a “partially collapsed” lung — if that’s possible — and various other injuries to his chest, sternum and whatever other stuff came into contact with tons of defenders each week. You may recall that most of these injuries had occurred by the end of a Week 7 game vs. Oakland, after which Watson had to take a 13-hour bus ride to Jacksonville for the next game because he couldn’t risk airplane turbulence.
Of course, he couldn’t risk running head first into all those defenders each week, but that didn’t stop him. Well, actually, they did stop him, so the offensive line has been rebuilt and the defense has basically been allowed to wither. Which is why I’m taking the over here. The Texans might even have three or four healthy receivers for now, something Watson never experienced last year.
What gives me pause is that by the end of last year, the Saints were running fewer plays than any other team, because their main objective seemed to be running every play as the clock expired. Because, I guess, Drew Brees was rapidly approaching senescence. However, I take heart in knowing that the Saints have a habit of giving up and scoring lots of points right out of the gate, which is why they’ve gone over in Week One the last five years.
The pick: Saints 34, Texans 27 — Over 53 1/2 for $50.
