As we wind down the end of the regular season, we get our final Thursday night game of the year, and it’s an AFC West matchup between a team playing for their playoff lives, and another looking to keep developing their rookie quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) @ Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
Moneyline: Chargers +166, Las Vegas -198
Spread: Chargers +3.5
O/U: 53.0
This is a game that should see a decent amount of points scored, and unlike previous weeks, we can go a little more chalk with our Captain or MVP spot and still look for a couple of value plays — some call it the stars and scrubs approach.
Captain Chalk is cool
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers: FanDuel ($13,500), DraftKings ($15,600)
Since returning from injury Ekeler has been a pleasant surprise to many season-long teams that may have been lucky enough to hold him, but that’s the joy of DFS — it’s one week, and this is a great matchup. The Raiders have been awful against RBs this season, allowing three straight games of 100-plus yards. In the last game they didn’t allow 100 rushing yards, the Kansas City Chiefs’ RBs went for three scores. Guys like Brian Hill, Ito Smith, Ty Johnson, and Jonathan Taylor have gashed them, and as long as Ekeler gets the 20-plus touches he’s been averaging in his three games since returning from a hamstring injury, he could have a massive day.
Some may pivot to Keenan Allen — especially on DraftKings with their PPR scoring — and I won’t be mad atcha, but we also risk having to pay down at the running back position for both teams. And while I might be willing to do it for Devontae Booker, it’s not a prime spot to be.
Flex appeal
Tyron Johnson, WR, Chargers: FanDuel ($6,500), DraftKings ($5,000)
I like this play. However, I love, love, LOVE this play if Mike Williams doesn’t play. Even if he does he may be limited, Keenan Allen leads the NFL in targets and he’s the king of the mountain. But let’s look past that. Who’s next? With Mike Williams looking like a no-go, this leaves Johnson as the next man up. Now it could be Johnson or Jalen Guyton, but last week after Williams left, Herbert looked his way for a solid 6-55-1 line on seven targets. This could be a perfect difference maker in your lineup.
Justin time?
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers: FanDuel ($16,000), DraftKings ($11,800)
Some will try and get both into their lineups, and while I’m not opposed to it, I lean more towards the guy who isn’t in the playoff hunt. Sure, he’s struggled the past couple of weeks, which is to be expected with a rookie wall and also teams catching on to him, but there’s no reason to think that will be the case against a Raiders team that he torched 28-42 326-2 back in Week 9.
The Raiders also fired their defensive coordinator and on a short week, which could help. He’s also had at least two-plus touchdowns in eight of his past 10 games and is averaging just under 289 passing yards per game this season. Gimme!
