The Kansas City Chiefs kick off the NFL season this Thursday. And with the defending Super Bowl champs there is a whole lot of fantasy goodness.
There’s always a risk when you set your lineup with a majority of guys from the Thursday night game. If they have big weeks, things are great, but if they tank you’ve got a huge uphill battle. And it sucks. Thankfully that’s where the single game DFS format comes into play. It’s one game. That’s it. Every week I’m going to put together a little primer about the Thursday night game. Not necessarily strategies or must plays (let’s be honest, we know Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Deshaun are in that category), per se, but things I’ll be watching for and things that catch my eye. So, let’s get to it.
Spread: Kansas City -9.5
O/U: 54.5 points
Money Line: Kansas City -450, Houston +350
What kind of impact will Clyde Edwards-Helaire have?
I’ve seen some people say he’s the next Christian McCaffrey. While any running back in an Andy Reid offense is going to put up big numbers, let’s pump the brakes a wee bit. I mean, after all he hasn’t played a down. He’s the perfect back for this offense, but when you factor in that there are a lot of are a lot of mouths to feed, it’s possible that they don’t unleash him right away and use him as a rotational player until he gets comfortable. He’s got the luxury of not being the focus off the offense, and since Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be drawing a large part of the defense’s attention, this allows some of the pressure to be relieved. Let’s see how he’s deployed in Week 1 and if he’s part of a rotation or if indeed he is the bellcow back. Either way, I’m throwing him in several of my Thursday night DFS lineups, just not the captain’s spot, though.
What David Johnson will we get?
There are two trains of thought with D.J. Some think that he’s washed and others believe the trade to Houston can do him some good. While I’m not a David Johnson truther, I’m squarely in the latter camp.
Yes, last year he entered the season as the starter, then lost his job to Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake (after the trade from Miami.) Sometimes players just need a change of scenery, hence the trade to Houston. He’s in the perfect situation. His only competition for touches is Duke Johnson, who is more of a receiving back and not much of a runner. If he stays healthy, David Johnson should be a lock for 200-plus carries.
As for catching the ball, we know he can do it, and there should be opportunities. DeAndre Hopkins was one of the more targeted wide receivers in the league, and those 150 targets need to go somewhere. They’ll be spread out a little more than normal with Cooks, Cobb, Fuller and Duke, but there’s no reason to think that he can’t get a good chunk of those. Let’s be honest, Bill O’Brien will want to justify the Hopkins trade. What better way than to make Johnson the new centerpeace of the offense? My feeling is that BOB will ride him until the wheels come off, and you know Johnson will have a chip on his shoulder too. That combo has me thinking that if he really is a three-down back, we’re looking at a RB1 potential.
What other newcomer steps up in the Houston offense?
When I initially wrote this article, it was going to be about Brandin Cooks and the impact I feel he could (and eventually will) make with the Houston Texans. But since this is DFS and we’re talking one week, the ambiguous “questionable” tag isn’t anything I want to mess around. So naturally, what do we do? Like Ross Geller would say… PIVOT!
Randall Cobb wasn’t the biggest name to join the Texans this offseason, but he might be the addition that ends up helping the team the most in Week 1 as he’ll serve as a solid slot option for Deshaun Watson. Somebody has to play opposite Will Fuller, and while I’m not a fan of Cobb season-long, we’re talking about one week. With that state of the Texans offensive line and likelihood they’ll be playing from behind, it’s very possible the game script has them throwing the ball, and the short to intermediate routes will be heavily used and he could lead the team in targets.
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