As we get to the end of the NFL regular season, I have to be honest, I’m losing track of what days and times we have NFL games. But what I do know is that we have a matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams on Thursday. So that’s something.
New England Patriots (6-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
Moneyline: Patriots +200, Rams -240
Spread: Rams -6
O/U: 44.5
What is the key to winning a GPP? Lineup differentiation. So let’s take a look at a few options that could work in that spot.
On any given week, who knows which player will emerge as the top wideout for the Pats. And sure, it’s a low-volume passing attack, but we need to be different, right? I’ve personally leaned on Jakobi Myers more this season, but what I want to do is get as many top-notch Rams offensive players in our lineup as possible, so let’s look at Damiere Byrd.
Granted, his targets depend on game flow. I’m expecting the Rams to jump out to a lead, and with the Patriots likely playing from behind, it’s the game script. Plus he’s seen at least seven targets in two out of the last three straight games, and he’s just two weeks removed from a 6-132-1 performance vs. Houston. He’s a great captain on DraftKings.
Which Rams WR do we want?
Cooper Kupp: DraftKings – $9,600, FanDuel – $13,000
Robert Woods: DraftKings – $9,200, FanDuel – $13,500
Van Jefferson: DraftKings- $2,600, FanDuel – $6,500
Is it possible to get all three in? Sure it is. The question is, should we? We can make a viable case for all three.
- Kupp: This depends on where Stephon Gilmore plays. Odds are you’re looking opposite Robert Woods, so that opens it up for Kupp. I totally understand wanting to fade someone who has only gone over 100 yards three times this season and only has two scores, but the upside is way too high.
- Woods: He’s seen double-digit targets in each of the Rams’ past three games. Add in a couple of jet sweeps, and it’s delicious.
- Jefferson: So this is where it gets interesting. While the numbers don’t stand out (4-27-0) last week in the Rams win over the Arizona Cardinals, Jefferson played a career-high 40 snaps for Los Angeles, 48 percent of their offensive totals, and looks like he could pass Josh Reynolds on the Rams depth chart. If the Patriots focus on taking away Woods and Kupp (as they should), he’s worth looking at as a low owned flier with upside.
Ram tough
Rams Defense: DraftKings – $4,400
The Rams average over 14 DraftKings FPPG over their last three home games (yeah, it’s a small sample size), and people might be scared off by the Patriots’ 45-0 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Well, don’t be. The Pats have had issues on offense all year, and Cam Newton was a mediocre 12-for-19 for 69 passing yards and a TD last week. He hasn’t shown the ability to make a big play this season, and if you make Damien Harris a nonfactor, you can force Cam to make some mistakes. That’s where you eat.
What about Cam?
Cam Newton: DraftKings – $10,600, FanDuel – $16,000
I’m going with Byrd in my Captain’s spot on DraftKings because of the PPR scoring but lean toward Newton on FanDuel. We know he’s a below-average passer, but his running is what we look at for DFS. He’s averaging 9.6 rushing attempts, 39.5 rushing yards, and a rushing TD per game on the season. His 11 rushing TDs lead all QBs (which is weird), and if the Patriots get down toward the red zone, guess who is going to get the first crack at the end zone? While others fade, you ride.
