Locks
NCAA Basketball – UNC -3.5 vs. Stanford (-110):
I think Stanford can be a decent team this year, but this line is reading too much into their win over an Alabama team that can’t shoot. If Stanford wants to play up-tempo again like it did against Alabama, this is the wrong opponent to mess with. North Carolina got a wakeup call in the first half yesterday, and I doubt they’ll get caught napping again.
Typical of recent UNC teams, this squad is beatable if they’re slowed into half-court offense and making perimeter shots. Stanford couldn’t force that game script against Alabama and also lost 22 turnovers, an amount that will be magnified and unacceptable in this game in order to have a chance. Human beanpole Ziaire Williams looked good in his freshman debut, but the size and physicality of the Tar Heels frontcourt will be too much for him early on. I’ll keep riding UNC until they prove me wrong, especially on a line this short.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Michigan State +4 @ Duke (-110):
This is the kind of Spartans team that Tom Izzo loves, with a strong defensive identity and experience at every position. They’re not getting enough attention as a conference and national contender, probably because of the depth of the Big 10. Aaron Henry might be the best defensive player in the Big 10, and he’ll be needed against a Duke team that has to rely on its frontcourt because of their inexperienced guards.
That showed up against Coppin State as the Blue Devils lost 22 turnovers and struggled to put away a weak opponent. Duke seems to be trading on brand name recognition right now, both in the rankings and the betting market that’s making them the favorite in a game I’d view as more of a pick’em. With no fans at Cameron Indoor, I’ll take 4 points with an experienced defensive Spartans team.
NCAA Basketball – Nebraska-Omaha/Creighton under 149.5 (-110):
Omaha has really struggled offensively this season, averaging only 61 PPG against weak competition and shooting an abysmal 18% from behind the arc. I don’t like their chances of improving on that against a Creighton team that has a perception of being an offensive juggernaut, but flashed the defense in their first game.
It was out of necessity because this Bluejays offense really seems to miss Ty-Shon Alexander and Davion Mintz from last year’s team. Until Marcus Zegarowski and Mitch Ballock (a combined 4-20 from 3 on Sunday) prove they can make shots, the identity of Creighton will have to be on defense. Omaha offers easy pickings for that style, and I see a slower pace in this game overall, so this feels like too many points.
NCAA Basketball – Mississippi Valley St @ Grand Canyon -30 (-110):
Maybe Mississippi Valley should find a new calling as the team the Washington Generals warm up against before getting owned by the Globetrotters. Just a thought, but they certainly don’t belong in D1. Until something changes though, we can keep fading this Delta Devils team.
As proof of their ineptitude, the Wyoming team that beat them by 36 turned around and lost to Texas Southern two days later. Grand Canyon has been an ascending program in the WAC and has a lot of upperclassmen on this team. I just don’t think Mississippi Valley can keep it within 30 against anyone right now, so I’ll continue to fade them until they prove otherwise.
Tiny Nick is 33-18 (+13.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
