If the pandemic were to bring the 2020 NFL season to a halt before any Week 13 games were played, Justin Jefferson would still have a historic rookie season. The 22nd overall pick is just the third rookie receiver since the turn of the century to record 900 or more yards, 50 or more catches and 17 or more yards per reception, and there’s still a third of the season to go. If he fulfills his current pace and finishes with 1,300-plus yards and 75-plus receptions, he’ll be just the third rookie receiver ever to meet those benchmarks along with Odell Beckham Jr. and Anquan Boldin.
No matter how you slice it, filter it, frame it, whatever, Jefferson is on a path to superstardom… Probably.
There aren’t many flukes when you have the type of success for which Jefferson is on track. Of the 18 rookie receivers post-merger to have 1,000-yard seasons, 12 made Pro Bowls during their career. Twelve also went on to record at least three 1,000-yard seasons in their career (and Tennessee’s A.J. Brown is on his way). There are essentially two outliers: Michael Clayton and Kelvin Benjamin. Benjamin recorded 1,008 yards as a rookie but tore his ACL in his second season, struggled to stay in shape and was out of the league by 2018. Clayton had arguably a more puzzling dropoff following his 1,193-yard rookie year. He failed to exceed 500 yards for the duration of his career with the Buccaneers. Poor quarterback play, though, may explain his regression.
Barring injury or a quarterback carousel, Jefferson is on the ascent at a position where early success is usually sustainable. But just because he’s making it look easy through nine career starts, doesn’t mean it will be easy. As Pro Bowl buzz and Rookie of the Year steam begins to swirl around Jefferson, he’ll begin to encounter the obstacles successful NFL rookies face. As you might see with a young baseball player who gets called up from the minors and mashes fastballs, opponents will start throwing more curveballs. In Jefferson’s case, that’s double teams, exotic looks and top corners jamming him at the line of scrimmage.
“We were in the two-minute drive,” Jefferson recalled from Minnesota’s Week 12 win over Carolina, “and they were playing the robber defense, where the nickel will come press me and have the corner in the back. They did that, and I haven’t seen that since high school. It was a little weird to see.”
In nine starts, Jefferson has only been held below 50 yards twice. With the Vikings missing Adam Thielen on the Reserve/COVID-19 list against Carolina, Jefferson caught seven balls for 70 yards, a respectable effort against a defense eager to bracket him on big downs. Even with Thielen on the field, Jefferson can expect to see more of the same. A week earlier, the Dallas Cowboys sent a safety Jefferson’s way on a 3rd and 6 early in the game to prevent single coverage. The calendar hadn’t even turned to December in Jefferson’s rookie season, and he was already getting the WR1 treatment.
“He got a nice taste of that last week (vs. Carolina) because from the get-go it was obvious they were going to roll his way and try to take him out of the football game,” said offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. “That’s respect. It tells you that you’re a dang good player and as a coach, from my perspective, what I have to teach him is, ‘Justin, this is what happens if you don’t move around and play various spots,’ and it gets back to the challenge of the classroom. ‘Hey, I’ve gotta bounce you around in formations and stuff to free you up.'”
It’s hard to find a critique of Jefferson. Fellow receiver Bisi Johnson described Jefferson on Wednesday as a rookie playing like a veteran. That assessment passes the eye test as the first-round pick continues to scorch cornerbacks with laser-sharp routes, savvy spatial awareness and reliable hands. Co-defensive coordinator Adam Zimmer mentioned Thursday that his defensive backs will probably be doubling Jefferson next offseason when the first-team offense and defense have more frequent 11-on-11 battles. Nationally, his highlights have given social media accounts ample content, as has his Griddy celebration dance, now mimicked by players across the NFL. He’s received praise from current stars like Richard Sherman and former stars like Cris Carter.
This is exactly what Jefferson aspired toward. The 21-year-old has already spoken of his desire to be a Hall of Famer, a declaration that’s made it easy to compare Jefferson to Randy Moss, whose rookie stats (69 catches, 1,313 yards) Jefferson may eclipse. The potential Rookie of the Year hasn’t shied from the spotlight — rather, he’s handled the ample attention with aplomb and enthusiasm. As challenging as it will be for Jefferson to continue shaking loose from a press corner to catch a third-down fade, sustaining his work ethic in the face of mounting expectations, comparisons and media requests will be his next greatest hurdle.
“Sometimes they let it go to their head and don’t work quite as hard,” said head coach Mike Zimmer, less than a year removed from a falling out with another star receiver Stefon Diggs, “I saw him drop a ball in practice the other day, and he never does that. I said to him, ‘I don’t see you dropping balls,’ and he said, ‘You won’t see it again.’ So he’s a pretty confident kid, but he works really hard, and there’s still a lot of things he has to improve on, and we let him know that as well. And the same with Dalvin, Dalvin is still a young guy too, but as long as we continue to coach them and tell them how they can get better and these guys are willing to work, all of that outside noise doesn’t really affect them much. He’s good. Everybody knows he’s good. It’s can he be great?”
History suggests that Jefferson will be, but he is also in the honeymoon phase with the Vikings, the fans and the league. It’s a certainty that things won’t be seamless the closer Jefferson gets to stardom — they rarely are, as Vikings fans that followed Moss, Diggs or Percy Harvin can attest. There’s no reversing the hype train now, though. Once you mention Jefferson in the same sentence as Moss — and not in a tongue in cheek sort of way — there’s a lofty bar that will either be reached or missed.
“That’s what I hoped for,” Jefferson said of the comparisons. “That’s definitely what I expected for me to do. I’ve definitely been confident in my game and have been working on my game tremendously. All of my hard work that I’ve been putting in over the offseason and through college definitely is paying off.
“It’s definitely hard to believe. It’s hard to really grasp what’s going on. To say I’m having this type of rookie year and making history and making records and stuff has been crazy. It’s been amazing. All I can (do is) thank God for being in this position and blessing me with what’s going on.”
