The 2017 Minnesota Vikings should not have won many games.
Just think about it. This is a team that was coming off an 8-8 season — after a 5-0 start, mind you — and lost its starting quarterback for the entire season after the season opener. Meanwhile, running back Dalvin Cook was off to a promising start to his rookie season before a torn ACL ended his season by Week 4.
The odds were against the Vikings in 2017. Yet, they finished the regular season 13-3 and even won a playoff game — albeit in miraculous fashion. These Vikings won with defense first and an occasional sprinkle of offense second — a formula that rarely exists for contenders in the modern NFL. Today, Super Bowls are won with offense. It has been almost exclusively offensive juggernauts making up Super Bowl matchups since 2016.
With that being said, it seems like every season there is a playoff team or two that uses an old-school philosophy of running the football and defense. This was certainly the case for the 2017 Vikings. Mike Zimmer’s defense was historically good and blessed by virtually zero injuries all season long. The Vikings were elite against both the run and against the pass and only allowed 25 percent of third-down conversion attempts to be successful.
Offensively, the Vikings adjusted when Sam Bradford went down. Case Keenum took over and gave star receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs just enough chances in the passing game. But once that defense helped the Vikings create a lead, it was a mix of running backs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon running out the clock.
This defense-first philosophy has proven that it can still be successful in the regular season. It certainly was for the Vikings and their 13-3 record in 2017. The 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars took a similar route, finishing the regular season 11-5 before winning two playoff games and nearly stealing the AFC Championship game on the road against the New England Patriots.
In 2018, the Chicago Bears offered another example. That Bears defense recorded unprecedented turnover numbers and carried that team to a 12-4 record in the regular season. Additionally, like the 2017 Vikings and 2017 Jaguars, the Bears defense was incredibly healthy all season.
In 2019, the Buffalo Bills were the next team to win using this philosophy. The Vikings got a glimpse of this Buffalo team in 2018 when the Bills marched into U.S. Bank Stadium as 17-point underdogs and destroyed Minnesota. Buffalo finished the 2019 season 10-6 and gave the Patriots the best competition they’ve had in a long time for the AFC East division title.
Looking further back in time, the 2015 Vikings may have also been an example of this. Zimmer’s defense blossomed in this season and Adrian Peterson won a rushing title. This Minnesota team finished 11-5 and won an NFC North title.
Each of these teams was led by an elite defense. Their defensive play-callers, whether they were the head coach or the defensive coordinator, are highly respected across the league for their defensive innovation. Meanwhile, each of these teams ranked highly across the NFL rushing the ball.
These teams also lacked consistent, stable quarterback play. Teddy Bridgewater in 2015 was probably the best quarterback of all these teams. The 2017 Vikings had Keenum. The 2017 Jaguars had Blake Bortles. The 2018 Bears had Mitchell Trubisky. The 2019 Bills had Josh Allen.
Based on this sample, it would appear that an elite defense will absolutely earn a playoff berth. But it won’t win a championship.
The Jaguars and Vikings are the only teams here that won a playoff game — and the Vikings needed a miracle to get their win.
And let’s not forget that all of these teams regressed the following season. Both the 2016 and 2018 Vikings failed to make the playoffs. The Jaguars have returned to the bottom of the ranks. The Bears limped to an 8-8 record in 2019. If the trend continues, Buffalo will also drop to about .500 in 2020.
Contending for a Super Bowl consistently in the NFL first requires an offense led by an elite quarterback. Just take a look around the league at the teams that have consistently won playoff games over the past five years. New England. New Orleans. Kansas City. Seattle. Green Bay. All of these teams have their answer at quarterback for some time. Their defenses? Good, sure. Elite in some cases. But it’s always been paired with an offense that can score points at a high rate.
An elite defense comes and goes quickly as both players and coaches look to get paid elsewhere. Minnesota, Jacksonville, Chicago and Buffalo built around their defenses. The results have been positive if you’re looking for a playoff berth — negative if you’re looking for a ring.
The current Vikings appear to still be sticking with a defense-first approach, which can win games in the regular season. And, apparently, it can also beat the Saints in the playoffs.
But the Vikings won’t take that next step until they prioritize the offensive side of the ball.
