For years the listeners of our Football Machine Vikings podcast have sent in amazing Twitter questions, and far too often we’ve had to leave many of them on the cutting room floor because of time. No longer! Each week we’ll pull some questions that didn’t make the cut and address them in this space.
If Irv and Rudy end up being out for the game, how does this affect the run game as the tight ends have such an impact blocking in their zone scheme? With only Conk being their viable TE, will this team have to become, *gasp* a pass first team on Sunday?
— Michael Chau (@Miketchau) December 9, 2020
The fact that Irv Smith Jr. seems to be healthy enough to play saves the Minnesota Vikings here. Remember, before Smith’s injury in the Detroit Lions game he was out-snapping Kyle Rudolph in the time-share. And from a run-blocking standpoint, there’s isn’t a tremendous dropoff. Rudolph is ranked 45th in Pro Football Focus’s run-blocking stats; Smith is 48th. In the four games before his injury, Smith recorded 25, 26, 9 and 26 run-blocking snaps, respectively. Rudolph had 28, 35, 8 and 29 — only a handful more. The Vikings are in good hands with Smith, who has popped up on a handful of Dalvin Cook highlights this year with his second-level blocks.
Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are among the best at stopping the run, I can’t see the Vikings changing their identity — not when Tom Brady and a bunch of weapons are on the other side. After all, Tampa’s pass rush is actually higher-rated than their run defense in play-to-play analytics (run defense ranks eighth; pass rush seventh).
Do you think it should be a priority to look for a free agent veteran corner in FA this off season? Thinking this could really help to bring on Dantzler and Gladney as well as further stiffening up the pass defence, even without breaking the bank for one
— Samuel Mundy (@Samtheyellowman) December 9, 2020
I hear Xavier Rhodes and Mackensie Alexander might be available!
In all seriousness, because of Dantzler’s and Gladney’s progress — plus Mike Hughes will still be hanging around — anybody that signs on is probably not signing on to start, and in a normal year that eliminates a lot of free agents who would have a desire to join the team. However, in a pandemic-induced depressed cap environment, we’re likely to see a second straight season where veterans sit on the market for months. The Vikings, for some reason, refused to take advantage of some of these value propositions this year and allowed Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard and Logan Ryan to sign elsewhere while they sent their rookie cornerbacks onto a lifeboat with no paddle.
It’s actually a pretty deep cornerback class in 2021 free agency, and you can put perceived value to the side with some of these contracts because dollar figures are going to be depressed. If someone like Troy Hill of the Los Angeles Rams slips through the cracks, I’d jump on him — he’s just over age 30, blossoming in a bigger role this year, making just $1.6 million.
The Vikings play to their opponents competition. I believe this stems from a conservative, run first approach that keeps opponents in games. The bucs have a great run defense: do you think zim is smart enough to throw early and throw often?
— Dr. Lawson (@SKOL_doctor) December 9, 2020
At a glance, I think your logic about playing to the level of opponents makes sense. How can you blow anyone out when your drives take eight minutes, frequently take the air out of the ball in two-minute situations, and run the ball with the lead? I think the 2020 Vikings are frustrating in their inability to put bad teams away, but let’s also consider how turnovers have tightened these games. In Zimmer’s time with the Vikings, they’ve generally had the same approach to running the ball and have been fantastic against the spread. Since 2014, they’ve never finished below .500 against the points, and they are still 6-6 this year despite some clunkers at home.
I’d also argue, perhaps to your chagrin, that their run-first approach has been the key to their road success. Just look at what they did against the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers. Tampa is a different best with that front, but as I mentioned above, they are also great pass-rushers, and the Vikings’ line is better equipped to run block than pass block.
Which WR are opposing defenses treating as our WR1, Thielen or Jefferson?
And which do you think is more valuable to the offense right now (this season)?
— observed idiocy (@observedidiocy) December 9, 2020
I think Justin Jefferson is getting the WR1 treatment based on the way defenses are bracketing him on key plays — plus the way Jaire Alexander keyed in on him in Week 8. I tend to believe defenses are honing in on the threat that’s likely to do the most damage, and that’s clearly Jefferson with the way he’s taken the top off defenses. He’s got over 300 more yards with three fewer targets this season. That’s not to diminish Adam Thielen, though, who has the same number of third-down conversions and is still a better red zone threat than Jefferson. I’ll give the nod to Jefferson in most valuable, but they truly are outstanding as a tandem.
