As we continue to wait for any news or information regarding the NFL’s plan for the 2020 season, Las Vegas hasn’t skipped a beat releasing a plethora of “future bets” to their casinos as they, too, wait with anticipation for commissioner Roger Goodell to lay out the blueprint for this upcoming year. While things could change in a hurry, the outlook for at least playing football to any degree seems like a lock to come true with details still being ironed out.
As the countdown to football continues I’ll be going bet by bet in a new segment each week and give you the rundown of the heavy favorites along with my own personal best value plays. We’ll start here with the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
No one in the entire NFL ended up with more draft picks than Rick Spielman and the Minnesota Vikings, who wound up making 15 selections plus a slew of undrafted rookie free agents, a new common era record. Yet only six of those were on the offensive side of the ball, and only half of those were skill position players (Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn and Nate Stanley).
Let’s jump into the OROY candidates, including Jefferson who offers tremendous value at 28:1 with the Vikings.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals: +250
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs: +800
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins: +800
D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions: +900
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts: +950
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos: +1300
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys: +1500
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens: +1600
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Raiders: +1800
Cam Akers, RB, Rams: +2000
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers: +2000
Zack Moss, RB, Bills: +2000
Denzel Mims, WR, Jets: +2300
Jalen Reagor, WR, Eagles: +2800
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings: +2800
Now at first glance it’s clear Joe Burrow is the hands down favorite to walk away with the award for best offensive rookie in 2020. However, there’s plenty of factors to think about before laying down the mortgage to your house on the former Heisman Trophy winner.
For example, you may think because he was the No. 1 overall pick and playing the most important position in sports that Burrow is at worst a 50-50 chance at being the best offensive rookie in the league. In actuality, however, only two quarterbacks have won the award in the last seven seasons (Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott).
In fact, in the last nine years, only two ROY selections have been the No. 1 overall pick of their specific draft class with Murray and Cam Newton.
Over the last 53 years since they began handing out the prize for top rookie only 10 signal callers have won the ROY throughout history. Here’s some more to chew on with Burrow and the rest of the 2020 OROY lineup.
Heavy Favorite: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (+250)
Outside of history not boding well for Burrow as I previously mentioned above, what I worry about the most with the LSU graduate is the supporting cast he’s walking into.
Let me first repeat the simple fact that Burrow is the heavy favorite for good reason, and I’m here to play devil’s advocate. Burrow was the Heisman winner and posted one of the best collegiate seasons we’ve ever seen from a quarterback in college history just a few months ago.
Burrow walks into the NFL with a head coach that worked under Sean McVay and is known to have a knack developing young signal callers. Case in point when he helped McVay quickly groom Jared Goff into one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in a hurry.
The other good news is he’ll be throwing to one of the best targets in the league in A.J. Green. Despite his age, when healthy, Green has one of the biggest catch radiuses you will find, as well as a knack for the big plays deep down field and in the red zone. The Bengals just redshirted their future bookend left tackle and top 10 pick Jonah Williams from Alabama, who will apply great pass blocking for Burrow and his blind side in the pocket as well.
But what happens if Green doesn’t suit up? After all, Green missing all of 2019 and playing only nine games over the last two seasons should give you at least a pause at the Vegas ticket counter. While Tyler Boyd is a highly above average slot man, he’s not a target that will ever offer a No. 1 presence like Green.
Burrow was drafted with Clemson rival wideout Tee Higgins just one round later and will look to grow timing and chemistry with him, eventually. When it comes to production in 2020, though, history screams loudly that trusting rookie wideouts just isn’t a good idea, especially if they’re catching passes from another rookie himself.
Outside of Williams the offensive line protection isn’t great either. Ohio State guard Michael Jordan has been a pleasant surprise but next to him the Bengals blocking feels like it will struggle out of the gate early in Burrow’s rookie season with guys like Trey Hopkins, Xavier Su’a-Filo and Bobby Hart completing the right side of the line.
Finally, it’s so important to look at the schedule for any bet. A team’s schedule is easily one of the most commonly overlooked facets to predicting a player’s chances at success or failure. While the AFC North isn’t what it was a decade ago with scary defensive names like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and James Harrison, it is still packed with young and budding talent with quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson, making this a critical year for the Bengals in their road to improvement and team stability.
After playing the Steelers, Ravens and Browns a total of six games, Burrow then squares off against likely playoff bound teams in the Cowboys, Eagles, Titans and Texans. A brutal stretch of opponents for any savvy veteran quarterback, let alone Burrow in his first season playing with the big boys of the league.
There are plenty of factors to consider with Burrow as the heavy favorite, and certainly a strong case can be made as Vegas’ early OROY. However, don’t punch that ticket just yet until you hear all your options. I’ve got a case to make for a few others with much better supporting cast and ideal scheme fits, not to mention far better value tied to their names given where they were drafted.
Best Value Bets
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs: +800
Quarterbacks winning the ROY is one of the biggest misconceptions you’ll hear, when in actuality it’s the running backs who have won the award two out of the last three seasons, and four of the last seven.
A main yet obvious reason for this is the simple fact playing quarterback is so difficult and nuanced. Especially as a rookie there will no doubt be plenty of growing pains. Meanwhile, history continues to show us that running backs have such a little transition for coaches and teammates to worry over. Outside of learning pass protection and the methodical playbook, tailbacks have the easiest transition from college to the pros because of the simplicity of the position they play.
Out of all the players I name here no one will walk into a better set-up and surrounding cast of talent and coaches than Edwards-Helaire, who was drafted by the No. 1 ranked offense in the league with the Chiefs. Between head coach Andy Reid and young, budding superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire walks right into a non-competitive backfield where he should win the starting job out the gate.
Reid and the Chiefs had a grab bag of options they shuffled in and out at tailback last season that still managed to total 16 touchdowns by year’s end. Now, with a fresh pair of legs that can stay on the field all three downs, the Chiefs will be ready to get their money’s worth out of their new first-round pick.
Like the rest of the names that will follow, Edwards-Helaire offers a keen combination of pure talent and superb surrounding cast, giving him tremendous value at +800.
To quickly put that into perspective, Burrow’s +250 wins you $250 for every $100 you wager. Meanwhile, Edwards-Helaire produces over triple that at +800, meaning he’s helping you cash in $900 when it’s all said and done for the same $100 wager.
With such a huge discrepancy of pay out, and the fact he plays running back, a position notorious for having a seamless transition into the NFL with little to no growing pains, it’s going to be tough not to at least throw a couple bucks on Edwards-Helaire.
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Raiders: +1800
The first wideout on the list is not a rookie name you likely assumed like Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, and that’s because of a few important yet subtle factors in play. Remember, only one player can win this award, so narrowing down your list to players with the highest potential and ceiling is critical. While I’ve been infatuated with Jeudy and Lamb throughout the pre-draft process from the tape I’ve watched, no one in this class offered the top end speed like Ruggs, who compares to Tyreek Hill with his playing style and blazing speed.
Unlike the other two rookies, Ruggs III is the lone wolf in his group of wideouts, competing with Tyrell Williams, Zay Jones and fellow rookie Bryan Edwards. Jeudy has to fight for targets from budding star Courtland Sutton, and Lamb is on an offensive juggernaut with star power like Amari Cooper and Zeke Elliott.
Ruggs not only will slide into the Raiders No. 1 receiver role right out the gate but also is teaming up with a quarterback in Derek Carr who is known for his big arm and deep ball, something Ruggs will love considering his combine-best 4.28 speed. Ruggs was lightning in a bottle for the Crimson Tide in college and could be even better in the NFL if used properly.
So a big armed veteran with one of the better offensive line units in the league, plus a powerful running game to work play-action and suck nine men into the box. Running back Josh Jacobs was the OROY runner-up in 2019 behind only Kyler Murray and should feed off his own rookie season for another big campaign.
Ruggs is the total package and gives you a little bit of everything here. He’s the team’s No. 1 target from the moment he steps onto the field and is catching passes from a good veteran quarterback with a big enough arm to match his blazing home-run speed downfield.
To get a package like that at +1800 doesn’t happen very often and makes Ruggs one of the best value bets for OROY.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings: +2800
It’s true the Vikings, coordinator Gary Kubiak and head coach Mike Zimmer want to get old school and run the ball even moreso in 2020 with Dalvin Cook and an improved offensive line. But, in a pass-happy league the team will still be forced to throw the ball more than ever, and that means putting the ball in their quarterback’s hands and relying on Kirk Cousins, who had one of the best statistical seasons of his career in 2019.
Enter Jefferson, who the team drafted with their first of a NFL-record 15 picks and was selected in hopes of softening the blow of losing former No. 1 wideout Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills in a trade. Jefferson, who broke the LSU team record after catching 111 passes in 2019 has been a dynamite route runner out of the slot and quietly one of the best contested catch targets in the entire nation despite his smaller stature.
Jefferson has a rare luxury of joining the team as the clear cut No. 2 passing weapon opposite of Adam Thielen in an offense that will see eight, nine and even 10 defenders in the box to stop Cook and the highly effective zone running game. With Thielen soaking up consistent double teams as the No. 1 wideout, this means Jefferson will consistently see one-on-one matchups and single coverage each game. Very rarely can another rookie wideout say the same that receives so much playing time right away.
With their heavy run scheme the Vikings knew they needed to bring in a passing game weapon they could feel comfortable with at consistently beating single coverage and winning those contested passes at the catch point. They hit the lotto with Jefferson who was PFF’s No. 1 contested catch rate receiver in the country despite facing top competition and cornerbacks with NFL talent many weeks.
With an improved offensive line yet again, Cousins should show even more continued progress in his third year in purple after showing off one of the most accurate deep balls in the NFL when he was given a clean pocket.
At worst, Jefferson is the rookie who learns on the fly as the team’s third passing option (behind Thielen and Kyle Rudolph) and takes advantage of those single coverage looks in a run-first offense. But that also means Jefferson is just one injury away from quickly becoming the team’s No. 1 passing threat, where he would see the large majority of targets and feed off Cousins great play-action success with his technically sound route running and reliable hands.
At +2800 Jefferson has the makings of a huge underdog winner, putting nearly $3,000 dollars back in your pocket on just a $100 wager. After breaking his surroundings down it’s hard not to love the value play of Jefferson.
If you’re superstitious or into trends you’ll love Jefferson even more when I tell you the Vikings have the most OROY awards in the entire NFL with five. Plus, the NFC has won the OROY a ridiculous 13 seasons in a row dating back to 2006 when Vince Young was the last AFC rookie to take home the trophy.
