During the Mike Zimmer era, the Minnesota Vikings defense has been a force to be reckoned with every season. It has become the identity of the Vikings.
It’s true; a successful defensive effort requires all 11 players to fulfill their roles adequately. Smart offensive coaches will scheme their offense in a way that targets the weakest link of the defense.
The safety position is unique in the NFL because it can cover up weaknesses on the defense, and it’s easy to see. When cornerbacks get toasted off the line of scrimmage, it’s up to the safety to react and prevent a deep completion.
Anthony Harris has become that player for the Vikings over the past couple of seasons. Over his first three seasons from 2015-2017, Harris would fill in sparingly as a spot starter and showed promise. He could cover a lot of ground and had a knack for reading the quarterback’s eyes.
He also showed an ability to make the big play when it mattered most. During the 2017 season, the red-hot Los Angeles Rams visited U.S. Bank Stadium in one of the most anticipated matchups of the season.
Late in the second half, the game was tied 7-7. The Rams had the ball in the red zone and were poised to take the lead, either by touchdown or field goal. Rams receiver Cooper Kupp caught a slant pass over the middle and darted for the end zone but was met at the 1-yard line by Harris, who ripped the ball free. Harris then hopped on it, securing the ball for the Vikings. The Rams did not score the rest of the game.
Harris’s playmaking ability has been on full display since he took over a starting role in 2018. He fulfilled the role of “centerfielder” brilliantly, covering up gaffe after gaffe by Vikings cornerbacks. His big-play ability shined brightest in Minnesota’s huge wild card win over the Saints, when he picked off Drew Brees on a deep pass intended for Ted Ginn Jr.
Not everyone loves Pro Football Focus, but it’s clear the folks at PFF know football. And those folks have graded Harris quite highly since he became a full-time starter. In 2018, Harris earned a PFF grade of 89.0 and allowed a passer rating of 24.0 when targeted. For reference, throwing an incomplete pass on every attempt results in a passer rating of 39.6.
The undrafted Virginia Cavalier improved his PFF coverage grade to 91.6 in 2019, which was best among safeties. His total passer rating allowed over the past two years is 41.4, which is best in the NFL among safeties who have played at least 250 snaps.
In other words, he’s not just elite.
He’s the best in the sport.
The best part about it is that Smith was the No. 2 ranked safety by PFF in 2019 with a coverage grade of 91.4. Harris and Smith complement each other perfectly. Harris has elite coverage instincts and has excellent range to eliminate deep completions down the field and, in many cases, create turnovers. Smith, meanwhile, isn’t necessarily bad at those skills, but he truly shines when playing in the box covering tight ends and running backs and stuffing the run.
Harris has certainly earned himself a large contract and he deserves the right to get his money. If the Vikings don’t make it a priority to pay him themselves, Zimmer’s defense could fall apart in 2020 more than it already has.
Without Harris, Smith likely plays more snaps as a high safety, taking away his presence in the box. More pressure is added to the cornerbacks to win at the line of scrimmage because they don’t have the insurance of Harris to cover the deep ball. Furthermore, less reliable coverage requires the pass rushers to get to the quarterback faster.
If the Vikings let Harris walk, it induces a chain of events that can only make the defense worse.
On the surface, Minnesota’s cap situation doesn’t allow for Harris to get a huge contract. But the Vikings have the means of creating the space necessary for a contract in the $12 million per season range. Xavier Rhodes, Linval Joseph and Riley Reiff all have larger contracts that could be cut with little dead money that, overall, could save the Vikings nearly $30 million in cap space for 2020. Cutting Rhodes would save $8.1 million, Joseph would save $10.5 million and Reiff would save $8.8 million.
While safety isn’t regarded as the most valuable position on defense, Harris is no ordinary safety. He creates turnovers at a higher rate than almost every other defensive player in the league. His presence in the secondary covers up a lot of mistakes made by a cornerback group that has regressed in recent years.
Harris, maybe more than Smith, has been the pillar of the Vikings secondary the past two seasons.
It really looks like 2020 will be an all-in season for the Vikings. The talent is still there to win a Super Bowl on both sides of the ball. We could be nearing the end of the Rick Spielman-Zimmer regime. They might have just one shot left. Why throw that away by letting the best safety in the NFL leave?
