Locks
NCAA Basketball – Ball St. @ Bowling Green -7.5 (-110):
Bowling Green is quickly becoming one of my favorite mid-major teams. The Falcons are 5-0 in MAC games, have covered the number in all five, and have won by a minimum of eight points in all those games as well. This team looks focused to me, blowing out the bad MAC teams while also avoiding the dreaded zig-zag last weekend.
They rank 22nd in scoring offense, and are excellent from the free-throw line, meaning they close out moderate spreads like this one. Ball State, meanwhile, has been a good team to fade this season, going 3-6 ATS overall and 0-4 as the underdog. And they have lost both MAC games against decent opponents by double digits. Simply put, this line should be more like minus-12, and it’s my favorite play of the day at this number.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Eastern Michigan @ Toledo -11 (-110):
Speaking of the MAC, the only team that might be hotter than Bowling Green right now is Toledo. They’re also 5-0 in their conference games, winning by an average margin of 14 points and covering the number every time. In fact, they’re one of the best ATS teams in the country at 11-2 against the number.
Eastern Michigan has had a few cancellations and postponements this season in addition to beating up two non-D1 opponents, but they had a 17-point home loss to this very Rockets team just over a month ago. I’ll definitely take a six-point discount from that result here tonight with a Toledo team that consistently covers the spread.
NCAA Basketball – Wisconsin/Michigan over 134 (-110):
The only reason I don’t have lock-level confidence on this one is Wisconsin has still shown a tendency to go through offensive droughts in games this season. But the numbers support a play on the over here. First, with Michigan you have a team that’s absolutely on fire offensively, shooting the 7th-best percentage nationally and scoring 80 or more in all but one game this year. The Wolverines are also 9-1 to the over against this particular total.
Wisconsin actually has a decent shooting percentage, particularly from long range, where they’re 5th nationally at 41.4%. That should help keep them in this game against Michigan’s 245th ranked 3-point field goal defense. The Badgers are also 8-4 to the over this season, and in a game that gets dictated by Michigan’s strong offense, we’ll get another over against this low total.
Tiny Nick is 97-51 ATS (+46 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
