Locks
NCAA Basketball – Colorado St./San Jose St. Under 158 (-110):
There’s too much steam on this total driving it up, with a more than 4-to-1 ticket count on the over. It’s a move fueled by San Jose State and their bad defensive stats, but let’s not forget that this team can’t score: 327th in field goal percentage and 331st in offensive efficiency.
It’s not like Colorado State is anything special offensively either, checking in at 125th in offensive efficiency, and it’s also important to note that just one of their D1 games this season have gone over this total. The Spartans are also 5-3 under this number, including their past two games against a Fresno State team with better offensive numbers than Colorado State.
This is a really high number, and with one of the worst offenses in the country on the court, I don’t see enough scoring to get there, so I’ll hold my nose and take the under.
NCAA Basketball – San Diego St./Utah St. Over 130.5 (-110):
What do you get when you match up the 12th versus 60th field goal percentage defenses and the 5th versus 48th teams in defensive efficiency? Well, a low total, but one that looks artificially low. Utah State, owners of those 12th and 5th rankings, have allowed only 51 PPG in conference play. That’s pretty good until you see that their last three opponents rank 306th, 331st, and 332nd in offensive efficiency.
This is a fraudulent Aggies defense, allowing 76.5 PPG against D1 opponents to start the season. San Diego State has a defense that isn’t as much of a mirage, but their conference games are averaging 135.3 PPG, and they’re 7-3 over against this particular total. It looks to me like the statistical models got the best of the oddsmakers here, and I see an opportunity to get on the over.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Bryant -4.5 @ St Francis PA (-110):
This is definitely a mismatch. Bryant looks like the class of the Northeast Conference, scoring the 7th most PPG in the country behind the 10th-best shooting from beyond the arc and taking Syracuse to the brink. The 287th ranked field goal percentage defense of St. Francis will not be able to stop them.
An important angle to this game that I’m looking to exploit is getting ahead of the zig-zag. This is the first of a doubleheader for these teams, and Bryant has been excellent in those spots, winning all three times by an average of 18.6 points. But their second games have all swung in the opposite direction, by an average of 13.3 points. This is a buying opportunity for me on a clearly superior team where I can get in front of the dreaded zig-zag.
NCAA Basketball – Washington @ USC -14 (-110):
This is a bet on USC bouncing back from another flat spot, and Washington is an opponent that presents a good opportunity for it. The Trojans were caught napping after an Arizona road sweep, needing overtime to take care of UC-Riverside. The last time USC found itself needing to wake back up was after an ugly performance was against Colorado, and the Trojans responded by beating Utah by 18 points three days later.
Utah is much better than this Huskies team, who is now 2-8 ATS on the season and 0-4 against the number in conference road games. I don’t see how the 309th team in offensive efficiency scores enough against USC, 21st in defensive efficiency. I like the Trojans here coming up off a flat spot.
Tiny Nick is 101-54 ATS (+46.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
