Locks
NBA – Blazers/Rockets Over 229:
Call four of your least athletic friends, set up a game with the Portland Trail Blazers, and I guarantee you’ll be able to score a few points on layups.
Every time I watch this Portland team I’m amazed by the number of easy looks the other team gets on the inside, no surprise since Enes Kanter is getting more and more minutes out of necessity. Only four teams are giving up more points per game than the Blazers, and with a thin lineup, I don’t see them offering much resistance to these new-look Houston Rockets who have been able to score at will against the other bad defenses they’ve faced.
Both these teams are also good at getting to the line, and they both foul a lot, allowing the 4th and 7th most opponent free throw attempts – a crucial ingredient of any NBA over. Also, Victor Oladipo and John Wall are very fast in transition and like to push the pace so that should also help.
With defense being optional in a national TV game, I’m expecting plenty of points.
NCAA Basketball – UAB -10 @ Middle Tennessee (-110):
This is a spot where I’m looking to get ahead of a potential zig-zag, but I’m also really high on this UAB team and think it’s a good matchup for them here. It’s all about defense for the Blazers as they rank 2nd in defensive efficiency, 3rd in points allowed per game, and 14th in opponent shooting percentage.
Something tells me that a Middle Tennessee team ranked 340th in offensive efficiency and 336th in points per game will have a tough time getting anything going against this elite UAB defense, not to mention they’re just 2-9 ATS on the season. I also want to capitalize on the zig-zag factor affecting both these teams: UAB has an average 15 point better margin in first legs, while MTU is an average of 16 points worse in their first legs.
The Blue Raiders are just outmatched here, so lay the points with UAB now before the rematch on Sunday.
NCAA Basketball – New Mexico @ Fresno State -6.5 (-110):
The bottom of the Mountain West this season is historically bad, and you could make an argument that New Mexico is actually a worse team than San Jose State because they just lost to them by 12 points in their last game. That’s a truly terrible loss, and something I don’t think is reflected enough in this line.
Fresno State has three players who are 7-foot or taller and like to get a lot of looks inside, which should be easy against a Lobos team that’s 275th in 2-point percentage allowed, not to mention 292nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs had Boise on the ropes in their last game and should be looking to take out some frustration here.
All three of Fresno’s home wins have been by 15 or more points, and I think we see another double-digit victory in this game.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – TCU @ Kansas -14 (-110):
I’ll admit to experiencing a little brand name bias with the Jayhawks here, but ask yourself if you’d want to be TCU in this game. You’re rusty coming off a 16-day COVID pause, the three games before the pause were losses by an average of 27.7 points where you averaged under 50 PPG, and your first stop is Allen Fieldhouse to face an angry Kansas team who already beat you this month by 29 points.
There seems to be a discounting of the Jayhawks lately as they’ve dropped three straight Big 12 road games by single digits to tournament-caliber teams, which given the strength of the conference is not all that surprising. The good news for KU is the last time they looked dominant was against this TCU squad, a game where they were able to get whatever they wanted on the interior. Sometimes you have to go with how a game feels, and this feels like a get right spot for Kansas.
Tiny Nick is 125-70 ATS (+52.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
