Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
Louisiana Lafayette +11
I didn’t really understand why this game opened with Appalachian State as a short road favorite, and I definitely didn’t understand the heavy move to a five-point spread. So I’m going against the steam and adding more cushion here in a game that should be fairly close.
Louisiana Lafayette might not be playing at the same level as last season when they beat the Mountaineers on the road, but they’re definitely good enough to stay within this many points at home. I see a back-and-forth affair here in this Sun Belt rivalry, and Lafayette QB Levi Lewis will be able to engineer a cover of this big number if not the outright win.
Over 51
These teams have very strong defenses, unless you actually look closely. The key factor here is strength of schedule in the top-heavy Sun Belt. Both teams have only played one opponent with a truly functional offense this season, and those opponents both scored 30-plus points. The Mountaineers can really move the ball, ranking 17th nationally in total yards, and should gash a Lafayette defense that’s allowing 5.8 yards per play. Both defenses allow a lot of yards though – App State through the air and Lafayette on the ground – so the chunk plays will be there tonight with two excellent quarterbacks playing.
Despite facing several dysfunctional offenses these teams have combined to go 7-3 over this teased total on the season. With this modified total getting through several key numbers I like the value here for what should be a fairly high-scoring game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 398-305 ATS (+86.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
