Locks
NFL (3 Units) 2 Team 6 Point Teaser; New England Patriots -1, Green Bay Packers -2 (-110):
Patriots -1
It’s officially time for another “Tiny Teaser.” The theme this year for me has been to keep it simple with the NFL and to dodge the inevitable upsets that happen in the NFL weekly. The best way for me to do that so far has been to bet against struggling rookie quarterbacks on that road, and I’m going to do exactly that again today. Mac Jones at home against a lousy team will be a nice change for him and I also think the Patriots will have Zach Wilson game planned for well. Although Wilson has shown some improvement, the Patriots beat him and the Jets by 19 only a month ago. I expect a repeat of that today.
Packers -2
The nameless Washington Football Team has struggled to put up points in the absence of Ryan Fitzpatrick all season, but surprisingly that hasn’t been their biggest issue so far. Their biggest issue is their defense that was expected to be the strength of their team. Their defense is allowing over 30 points per game. Not good. That stat up against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau doesn’t tell me it is going to get any better at all today. We saw some passion out of Rodgers last week when he yelled at Chicago fans, now we’re going to see if that momentum will carry over to what should be another easy win for Green Bay.
NFL (0.5 Units) Carolina Panthers -3 (-110): 12 PM CT on Fox
This isn’t about how good the Panthers are but more about how bad the New York Giants are. This team is without its star running back and their best offense has been a deer waddling Daniel Jones when all else is failing. As for the Panthers, I know Sam Darnold isn’t going to win an MVP anytime soon. But this team has battled even in games that they haven’t played well in, and against the Giants, they know this is one they can’t lose if they want any chance at a postseason bid. -3 points for the Panthers is simply too small of a spread against a Giants team that isn’t good at football.
Bonus Pick (0.25 Unit) Colts ML (+160): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
I adjusted the units way down here because I’m not about to throw the house on Carson Wentz anytime soon. But that being said, I think the Colts win this game tonight. The +4 spread is also something I like a lot but with almost 2 to 1 value against a 49ers team that simply isn’t good is too intriguing to pass up. It’s also the night game so I couldn’t not bet on it. Look for this Colts defense to keep playing well against a San Francisco team that clearly hasn’t established any sort of identity so far this season.
Degenerates
NFL Kansas City Chiefs/Tennessee Titans Over 57.5 (-110): 12 PM CT on CBS
I wanted to lock this so badly but it was impossible with what is the highest total in the NFL so far this season. I’m still going to make a couple of plays on this game including the over but just wasn’t confident enough in that high total to lock it. I will say this though, Patrick Mahomes is incredible, Derrick Henry is a monster, and these two defenses have struggled in a big way so far this season. Nothing is more fun than a shootout so let’s hope for an entertaining one today.
Tiny Nick is 417-317 ATS (+92.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
