Locks
NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/San Antonio Spurs Over 220 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
I’ll continue to play Lakers games to the over until the market adjusts, as I just don’t think there’s enough understanding of how differently they’re playing.
They’re already 2-0-1 over this total on the season, with their games averaging 231.3 points. They’ve been excellent on the offensive end, ranking 3rd in effective field goal percentage, 1st in 3-point percentage, and playing at the 6th-highest pace. But it’s the defense that’s a key element here. For a team with some strong defenders, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing 118 PPG is a big departure from how they’ve been playing in years past.
I see those defensive struggles continuing tonight against a San Antonio team that’s leading the league in shooting percentage. The Spurs are only a moderately paced team, but their hot shooting combined with the up-tempo Lakers style is a great over recipe. San Antonio is also 25th in opponent effective field goal percentage, so there’s plenty of poor defense and good shooting in this matchup that will carry it over the total.
NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Utah Jazz Under 219.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
I did not expect to see the Utah Jazz struggling like this on offense early in the season, but until they start shooting better, I’m compelled to play their games under.
With all the weapons Utah has, it’s strange to see them ranking 23rd in shooting percentage, especially considering their competition thus far. Fortunately for the Jazz, they’re also allowing the fewest points per game and the lowest opponent shooting percentage. That sets up quite a defensive showdown with the similarly-styled Nuggets tonight. Denver is 6th in defensive efficiency but struggles on offense themselves at 26th in PPG and 25th in offensive efficiency.
This game is also likely to be played at a glacial pace, with Denver 27th and Utah 22nd in possessions per game. None of the 5 combined games for these teams has come close to this total, and I don’t see it happening tonight with the way both squads are playing to start the season.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 419-320 ATS (+92.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
