Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 8 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
Generally, I consider baseball playoff matchups – especially elimination scenarios like this one – to trend lower-scoring. But there are some factors here that I think contribute to enough runs to clear this total.
The first is how these teams have played each other at Fenway Park this season. It’s obviously a smaller park where these powerful lineups can do more damage. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have averaged 8.6 runs per game in Boston this season, with the 10 meetings going 5-2-3 over this total.
I’m also seeing some vulnerabilities in these starting pitchers despite them being the staff aces. Gerrit Cole for the Yankees has been untouchable at times this season, but he’s posted a 6.19 ERA in three outings at Fenway that went 2-0-1 over this number. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi got shelled at home by the Yankees less than 2 weeks ago and is worse against right-handed bats, which make up the bulk of New York’s lineup.
Both these teams have a lot of power in their lineups and can score runs in bunches. While a game like this is typically managed differently to limit scoring at all costs, I think the pitching will be just leaky enough to continue the trend of higher-scoring games at Fenway.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 392-300 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
