Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Temple +29.5 @ Cincinnati (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Hangover alert here, and not the fun kind either. It’s not easy going against a Cincinnati team with dreams of crashing the playoffs, but this number is simply too big. Coming off a massive program-defining win over Notre Dame last week makes for a tough spot for the Bearcats tonight. And it’s a huge ask for them to win by more than four touchdowns against an underrated Temple team.
The Owls were absolutely spanked by Rutgers to open the season, but they have rebounded nicely. Highly-touted freshman quarterback D’Wan Mathis has delivered after needing a couple of games to get up to speed. And the Temple defense is actually 35th in yards allowed, making it more likely that this will be a slower, lower-scoring game that favors a big underdog. What’s more is Temple does well in these spots, 5-0 ATS their past five meetings with Cincinnati, and 4-1 ATS their past five games against AP top-5 teams.
Cincinnati’s ambitions of a CFP invite and thus their entire season was dependent on last week’s game. I just don’t see them getting up to crush Temple the week after. This should be a win and move-on spot for the Bearcats, especially with a much more important game next week against the University of Central Florida, so I’m taking the points.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Stanford/Arizona State Over 52 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
This total has been on the rise and with good reason, as I think both defenses are overrated while both offenses are underrated.
Arizona State has compiled some impressive raw numbers on defense this season, but it really helps when three of your games have been against completely inept offensive teams. That will not be the case tonight when they welcome a Stanford team that has blossomed offensively behind quarterback Tanner McKee. The Cardinal are averaging 34.5 PPG since McKee took the reins, and they’ve yet to turn the ball over with him starting.
But I don’t see Stanford being able to stop what Arizona State prefers to do which is run the ball. The Cardinal are 119th in rushing yards allowed and face a Sun Devils team that’s 27th in rushing yards per game behind excellent dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels. ASU will rack up the chunk plays on offense while their defense gets tested for the first time by a true passing quarterback. This should be a back-and-forth affair that gets over a moderate total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 392-302 ATS (+86.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
