Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat -6 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV
The Miami Heat are absolutely a title contender again, playing perhaps the best basketball in the league. This number seems almost too good to be true against a struggling Boston Celtics squad.
The Celtics had to resort to the players-only meeting tactic pretty early in the season, telling me this team has a litany of issues. It may have helped in beating the Orlando Magic last night, but this Heat team is a severely taller task. All six of Miami’s wins this season have covered the number, and they are best in the NBA with a 13.6 point plus/minus against the spread. Plus they have a league-best 16.7 point average margin of victory and are doing this against brand name teams that are considered contenders from both conferences.
I just see the Heat as being too good right now, with the numbers supporting that as they’re 2nd in both offensive and defensive rating. That kind of all-around excellent basketball should net them an easy win over this struggling and squabbling Boston team.
NFL (1 Unit) New York Jets/Indianapolis Colts Over 45.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX
Let’s be honest, it’s very possible an angry Indianapolis Colts team could get close to this number on their own. But with the New York Jets finding some offensive momentum recently, I think both teams are able to contribute here.
Anyone can score on the Jets, particularly through the air, so they should have no answer for breakout wide receiver Michael Pittman. And after some truly boneheaded plays on Sunday, Colts QB Carson Wentz should be looking to atone against a team allowing 340.7 passing yards their last 3 games. While it’s most likely that Mike White is a flash in the pan at QB for the Jets, this Indianapolis secondary is certainly vulnerable, and there’s a definite possibility of garbage time points in this one.
In their past 8 combined games, these teams are 7-1 over this total, with a combined 54.1 points per game. Both teams are also off shootouts, putting considerable strain on the defenses for this short week. I’m seeing just enough offense here to get over a below-average NFL total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 425-330 ATS (+84.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
