Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Northwestern St./Tulsa Under 145.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
My eyes popped out a little when I saw this total because it does not match my numbers, especially not with how these teams play.
Tulsa behind coach Frank Haith plays a very slow and methodical style, ranking 282nd in pace last season. They also have a unique defensive scheme that can frustrate even the most talented offenses. Northwestern State does not have a talented offense, ranking 246th last season in offensive efficiency, which is better than Tulsa’s 270th rank. The Demons also played last night, only managing 59 points against a much less defensive-minded Oklahoma team.
Tulsa is not in the habit of playing high-scoring non-conference games in general. When these teams met early last season they only got to 137 points. This is one of the bigger discrepancies from a pure numbers standpoint of the day, and I see a dead under here.
NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors -7 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
There’s the Timberwolves team we’ve all become accustomed to. With five straight losses and an inconsistent offense, now is probably a bad time to visit one of the best teams in the league.
Golden State continues to impress, with five straight wins and covers. Of their nine wins this season, only one has been by less than tonight’s spread, and this game could turn into a landslide. There are going to be a lot of shots taken from beyond the arc in this game, as the Warriors are 1st and the Wolves are 3rd in three-point attempts. But Golden State owns the best three-point percentage while Minnesota is 23rd, and that’s a recipe for this game to get out of hand.
Golden State is also the top defensive-rated team in the league and should stifle a Wolves offense that seems to fall on its face at least every other game. The Warriors are just firing on all cylinders right now, they’ve shown no hesitation in blowing teams out, and I see them getting a sixth straight double-digit win here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball North Alabama @ Mississippi St -21 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Mississippi State is a team that’s probably not getting enough attention early on this season and should crack the top-25 soon. The Bulldogs are off a run to the NIT title game last spring, and with Ben Howland, they have one of the more underappreciated coaches in the country. They may have lost all-conference guard D.J. Stewart, but did extremely well in the transfer portal and have some serious talent up front.
Forwards Tolu Smith, D.J. Jeffries, and Garrison Brooks will be too much for a North Alabama team that’s used to getting wrecked in non-conference games. I have Mississippi State winning this by closer to 30 points.
NCAA Basketball Long Beach State -6.5 @ Idaho (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Idaho was objectively one of the worst teams in all of college basketball last season. The Vandals ranked 333rd in offensive efficiency and 337th in defensive efficiency. There just aren’t many D1 teams that they should be so close to from a point spread perspective.
Long Beach State is off a down year, but coach Dan Monson can recruit and the Big West is on the rise as a conference in general. My only concern is whether the Beach be looking ahead to their next game at powerhouse UCLA, but I still have them winning this by double digits.
Tiny Nick is 433-335 ATS (+87.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
