Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Eastern Illinois @ St. Louis -21 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This St. Louis squad was a favorite of mine early last season before injuries and COVID slowed them down. They seem to have returned to that form and I like them to get another dominant win here tonight.
Behind an excellent backcourt of Gibson Jimerson and Yuri Collins, this Billikens team is once again an offensive efficiency monster. They distribute the ball extremely well and can shoot the lights out, which should happen again easily in this one. Eastern Illinois simply doesn’t have the offense to keep pace here, and also has trouble taking care of the basketball, which St. Louis will exploit all night.
The Panthers just got blown out by more than this spread against a Northwestern team with nowhere near the offensive pop of the Billikens. I see this one getting out of hand as St. Louis keeps the pedal down all game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UL-Monroe @ Auburn -24 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I went against this Auburn team in their opener and paid the price. I won’t be doing that again any time soon with how good the Tigers looked, especially not here against such an overmatched opponent.
This might be a bounce-back spot for UL-Monroe after their first game, but how far can you really bounce back from losing by 62 to another SEC team? The Warhawks were annihilated 101-39 by an LSU team that isn’t going to be as good as Auburn, particularly on the defensive end. Monroe turned it over 25 times in that game, and now face a Tigers squad that’s excellent at creating pressure and forcing turnovers.
Auburn also looks extremely tough and athletic up front, so they should dominate an undersized Warhawks team here. This is a lot of points, but the matchup simply isn’t fair, so lay the big number here.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Colorado St Over 143 (-110): 9:00 PM CT No TV
I called out the offensive potential of this Colorado State team on Tuesday, then they hung 109 points en route to crushing the over. Tonight they get a team even easier to score on and a total 11 points lower than that first game.
In Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s first outing they allowed 90 points to a Creighton team that just showed its offensive limitations last night. That’s a bad sign against this Rams team that was on fire from everywhere on the court Tuesday night. And that was with off nights from perhaps their two best players, who will look to get on track against a truly terrible Pine Bluff defense.
I’m going to continue to ride Colorado State overs until they prove me wrong, especially in the non-conference slate where they can score at will against cupcake opponents. I see them getting to near 100 points again here, making this total easy to clear.
NBA (1 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points (-105): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I know, I know, Anthony Davis is probably going to be matched up against Karl-Anthony Towns for much of this game, but I also know that KAT has heard the chatter and won’t want to miss out on a chance to make a statement in LA. He’s struggled to get shot attempts lately, so I expect Chris Finch to draw up some plays for their talented big man.
NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 24.5 Points (-110): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Yep, Anthony Edwards has officially arrived as a star in this league. We saw it on Wednesday when he barely missed the 50-point club against the Warriors. Although I think KAT also goes over, there’s plenty of meat on the bone for both of these guys to put up big numbers. This should be a great game for both of them offensively. If the Wolves are going to have any chance to win, they are going to need big outputs from their two best players.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 224 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The good ol’ regular season reckless trifecta. These teams are 4-2 to the over on this number in their last 6 games and that’s not by surprise. The Lakers team plays a lot faster than usual, much due to the addition of the speedy Russell Westbrook. More possessions equals more points. On the other side, the Wolves are struggling in a big way on the defensive end after a misleading start to their season. 224 isn’t too high for these fast-paced teams, so I know what I’ll be doing with my Friday night.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Army @ Duke -24.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
The Mike Krzyzewski retirement tour rolls on with a matchup against the only other school where he was a head coach. Will he want to embarrass them with a massive blowout? My gut says no but my numbers say yes, as I have the Blue Devils winning by closer to 35 points. Behind Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels, Coach K has plenty of talent to roll here if he so chooses.
NCAA Basketball Lipscomb @ Charleston -4.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on FloSports
This Charleston team has become a staple at the top of the Colonial conference and should easily cover a short number here. This non-conference tournament is on Charleston’s home floor, and they already took advantage last night, rolling by 32 over SC State.
This Lipscomb team chose the non-D1 cupcake route to start the season and ended up barely escaping Birmingham-Southern while allowing 98 points. The Bison might be in trouble for this game and the season in general.
NCAA Basketball Indiana State @ Purdue -25 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Big Ten Network
This is the upper limit of where I would lay points with Purdue in this matchup, but I think it’s one that heavily favors them. The Boilermakers ran out Bellarmine on the strength of their inside presence, and that advantage will be even greater here.
Indiana State uses a frontcourt of mostly undersized forwards and will have no answer for the mammoth Purdue lineup. Plenty of easy buckets inside and kick-outs to excellent shooters should turn this into a blowout.
Tiny Nick is 434-336 ATS (+85 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
