Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Oklahoma/Baylor Over 62 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on FOX
Undefeated Oklahoma likely has some gripes with their standing in the CFP rankings, holding steady at 8th despite some shakeups with the teams in front of them. I imagine that is not sitting too well with the Sooners, who have had a week to prepare an offensive onslaught in this game.
Both of these teams have been excellent on the offensive side of the ball, with Oklahoma 5th and Baylor 18th in scoring this season. Oklahoma has really turned it on of late though, scoring 48.5 PPG since switching quarterbacks, plus their past 5 games have averaged 77 points. But the Sooner defense has returned to their usual struggles, and a balanced Baylor offense averaging 35.5 PPG their past 4 is exactly the kind of unit to take full advantage.
Oklahoma knows their best chance in most games is to let their offense simply overwhelm the opposition, and this is a spot where the Sooners need style points as well. They’ve never been shy about racking those up, and a strong Baylor offense will be able to respond and carry this over the total.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Georgia @ Tennessee +20 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
You definitely need to be a glutton for punishment in order to fade this Georgia juggernaut. But I see this as the toughest test yet for the vaunted Bulldogs defense, and think Tennessee can stay reasonably close.
The Volunteers have one of the most balanced offenses in the country and are starting to gel in Josh Heupel’s system. They play extremely fast, they take excellent care of the football, and they just put 45 points on a strong Kentucky team that was able to hang with Georgia themselves. Tennessee hasn’t seemed afraid of the top SEC competition either as they had Alabama on the ropes early in Tuscaloosa 3 weeks ago, staying within a score into the fourth quarter.
I think it’s also important to note Georgia has only had two true road games all season, and Knoxville has turned into quite the hostile environment. I’m not calling for the upset, but smart money has been on the Vols here, and I see three touchdowns being just a little too much.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Southern Miss @ UTSA -33 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN+
The UTSA Roadrunners have been running out their Conference USA opponents to the tune of a plus-23 per-game margin, with most of those games being on the road. Now they return home to face the most feeble offense in the country, and also have a chip on their shoulder.
Southern Miss is bad, there’s no other way to put it. The nation’s lowest-scoring team has recently collapsed on defense as well, allowing 35.7 PPG their past 3 games. They should get run all over by future NFL running back Sincere McCormick, who is 7th nationally in rushing. The UTSA offense has gone off behind McCormick, averaging 46.5 PPG in their last 4 contests.
The Roadrunners are feuding with the CFP committee about a lack of respect for their 9-0 start (which is also an 8-1 ATS start), and need to back up some social media trash talk from this week. Southern Miss hasn’t covered a game all season, they seem to have packed it in, and I see a similar result to UTSA’s last home game where they smacked Rice 45-0.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) TCU @ Oklahoma State -12 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
TCU stepped up last week at home in their fired-coach game, but this should be where reality sets in and they have their letdown against a motivated opponent.
Oklahoma State started the season a little slow, but since a close call against Tulsa in their second game the Cowboys are on a 7-game cover streak. They’re also very much alive for the Big 12 title game and theoretically not out of the CFP mix either. That should keep them motivated here against an inferior Horned Frogs team. TCU is likely starting their backup QB in this one, freshman Chandler Morris, and he’ll have to deal with a Cowboys defense that’s 3rd in yards allowed and 9th in scoring. Oklahoma State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points all season, and has given up just 6 total points in their past two games.
Bedlam and the most important game of Oklahoma State’s season is still two weeks away, so I see them being focused on this game tonight. With a national TV audience to watch them state their case, I think the Pokes roll here.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Washington St. +14 @ Oregon (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is all about the spot and the trends for me, and both are pointing directly at Washington State as the correct side here.
First off, Oregon simply is not good in the favorite role under head coach Mario Cristobal, especially at home where they’re 0-5 ATS this season. The Ducks are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 as a favorite overall and have failed to cover 7 straight games when laying double digits. Meanwhile, Washington State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season, plus they’ve covered 10 of the past 11 meetings in this series.
It’s also a really difficult scheduling situation for Oregon as they find themselves in the dreaded sandwich spot. They got a tough road win last week and will travel to Utah for a huge matchup next week, making it easy to overlook Wazzu here. The Cougars come into this game with a week off to prepare, and probably have the edge at quarterback the way Jayden de Laura has been playing. Two touchdowns is a little bit much for an Oregon team that’s probably reached its high point in the market and with public perception.
Degenerates
NCAA Football New Mexico State +51.5 @ Alabama (-110): 11:00 AM CT on SEC Network
Over the past 30 seasons, there have been 17 instances where an FBS team is favored by 50-plus points against another FBS team. Those favorites have gone just 3-14 ATS, with Alabama contributing two of those ATS losses, one of which was against New Mexico State in 2019.
Alabama doesn’t need style points and therefore doesn’t need to demolish the Aggies here, as easy as that would be for The Tide if they wanted to. With critical conference games the next two weeks, I see Alabama coasting in this one and NMSU staying inside the massive number.
NCAA Football Notre Dame/Virginia Over 64 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
This play is entirely based on Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong being available for the game. The nation’s second-leading passer can turn this into a shootout, especially against a Notre Dame team missing star safety Kyle Hamilton. However, Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall has given zero information on Armstrong’s status, so be sure to monitor that up until kickoff.
Notre Dame has found their offense recently though, averaging 35.3 PPG their past 4 games. And Virginia can’t stop anything, ranking 122nd in yards allowed and surrendering 90 total points in just the last 6 quarters of football. Notre Dame will get theirs in this game no matter what, but with Armstrong in the game, this should fly over the total.
Tiny Nick is 438-338 ATS (+86.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
