Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) George Mason +11.5 @ Maryland (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Big Ten Network
This number has been crashing from the open with smart money hitting George Mason hard. It’s with good reason as they might well be live dogs in this game.
Maryland has only been getting by in their non-conference slate, needing to overcome halftime deficits the past two games and posting a 1-2 ATS record. I’m not a believer in their offense right now, as the Terrapins are 264th in field goal percentage and 337th from beyond the arc. I think those limitations will be worsened by a George Mason team that’s been excellent defensively, ranked 29th in defensive rating. They also shoot it much better, especially from deep with guards D’Shawn Schwartz and DeVon Cooper.
The Terps have been playing with fire to start this season and eventually that gets you burned. While they certainly have talent, it’s mostly transfers that have struggled to put it together. I see them as overrated and in for another test from this Patriots team.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Iowa @ Arkansas -12.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I had high hopes for this Northern Iowa team last season before the loss of guard AJ Green to a knee injury. Green’s return has not been the boost UNI needed, and I think they’re in trouble against a talented Arkansas team here.
The Panthers have really struggled to start this season, with two ugly home losses against teams they should never lose to. Green has not looked right as he makes his way back from knee surgery, and the offense has simply not been there as a result. The Arkansas defense is impressive, as they block a lot of shots and force plenty of turnovers. That should hold down this struggling UNI offense enough to cruise in this one.
Green’s presence in the lineup seems to be pushing his team’s power rating too high and not accounting for his struggles. That makes the Panthers overvalued, and I see their woes continuing here in their first road game against a talented Razorbacks squad.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Detroit Mercy @ Mississippi St. -15.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Mississippi State continues to fly under the radar despite truly excellent defense, and they should dominate another game against an overmatched opponent.
It’s somewhat unfair because you have to adjust for opponent, but Mississippi State is currently 4th nationally in points allowed and 7th in defensive rating. Teams simply can’t shoot well against them, and tonight they welcome a Detroit Mercy team that’s 296th in shooting percentage. The Titans have had that much trouble scoring against weak defenses, so the Bulldogs should have an easy time clamping down again here.
Mississippi State has held both their opponents this season to 49 points, and I see Detroit likely struggling to reach even that mark. This is just a big mismatch, and I have the Bulldogs winning by at least 20 points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Prairie View A&M @ Grand Canyon -10.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Prairie View is a fascinating program that we’ll likely see competing for the SWAC title later this season. But they’re used to getting absolutely wrecked in the non-conference, and this schedule has been brutal for them.
The Panthers are one of only three teams to have played five games already, and it’s been a marathon. With the amount of cross-country travel they’ve done, this becomes a fade of their schedule and stamina more than anything. Grand Canyon is probably the least talented team they’ve faced, but A&M is losing by an average 22.2 point margin and the Antelopes are no pushover. GCU is also rested for this game after posting double-digit home wins in their first two games.
There’s also an underappreciated talent gap here, as Grand Canyon is ascendant in an improving WAC while the SWAC is a perpetual 16-seed factory. This is the end of A&M’s stretch of 6 games in 9 days and I think they’ll be eager to just get it over with. Antelopes should win and cover comfortably here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Long Island @ Connecticut -26 (-110): 5:30 PM CT on FS2
This is a huge number but I don’t care, you have to lay it with how these teams have started the season. Long Island took two beatings on the west coast, allowing 98 and 84 points in the process. That’s bad news for having to go against this UConn team that’s far superior to their first couple opponents.
The Huskies have had no shame in demolishing their non-conference cupcake foes, winning by 51 and 35 points. They’re rolling behind a dominant forward duo of Akok Akok and Adama Sanogo, which LIU will have no answer for. UConn should run away with this one by 30-plus no problem.
NCAA Basketball Northern Colorado @ Texas -21.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Longhorn Network
I continue to be high on the season-long outlook for this Texas team, regardless of their performance against Gonzaga on Saturday night. That loss should motivate them here to make a statement, and Northern Colorado should be an easy victim.
The Bears have just one loss on the season, but it came against a non-D1 opponent in Hawaii-Hilo. They simply do not have the talent to compete with the best collection of transfers in the country. Texas won their other non-conference home game by 44 points and can do it again here if they feel like it.
Tiny Nick is 443-344 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
