Locks
NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX
Pittsburgh Steelers +9
The Minnesota Vikings have played in only one game this season decided by more than a possession, so being able to tease this into two-possession range is key. That’s especially true with a Steelers team that can also play an uglier style that keeps games close. We’ll also be treated to Primetime Kirk Cousins tonight, which has gone from meme to fact as his career record now sits at 8-17 straight up.
Cousins has also looked rough under pressure this season and now has to face the vaunted Pittsburgh front with a patchwork offensive line. I’m also suspicious of where this Vikings team’s head is at after the deflating Detroit Lions loss, especially on such a short week. This game probably won’t be pretty – both teams will see to that – so I love needing Pittsburgh to at worst keep this within single digits.
Under 50
I like the standard under for this game, but I really like this teased number because I think we see a slow, defensive-oriented game. Both teams are missing key pieces on offense, and are not likely looking to air it out tonight. The Steelers’ offense ranks 27th in yards per play and should look to stay on the ground against a banged-up Vikings front.
Playing at home invigorates this Vikings defense though, as they’re only allowing 19.8 PPG at home compared to 29.4 on the road, leading to a 4-1 home under record. It’s also worth noting that Thursday night football games are on an 11-2 under run, a product of the short week forcing vanilla game plans. This looks to me like an old-school low-scoring football game given the spot, weak offenses, and conservative coaching staffs.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Purdue -12 @ Rutgers (-110): 6:00 PM CT on BTN
While this is their first true road game of the year, I’m still seeing this Purdue team as another squad I want to back until proven wrong. I’m glad to get the road discount on this number and think they’ll run away from an outmatched Rutgers team here.
Purdue tops the AP poll by being an offensive juggernaut. They’re currently 1st in offensive rating, 1st in efficiency, 1st in effective field goal rate, and 2nd in scoring. That’s the polar opposite of Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 299th in shooting percentage and 322nd in effective field goal rate, putting them last among power conference teams for both. Purdue’s opponents this season that lack an elite offense have ended up losing by an average of 36.6 points.
Purdue should again control the interior as Rutgers center Cliff Omoruyi plays limited minutes while the Boilermakers have size for days. And with Geo Baker still likely out, Purdue’s elite guards should dominate as well. Rutgers will try to slow this game down, but I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay within this number, so I’m laying the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa @ Iowa State +5.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I didn’t understand why Iowa State was an underdog against Creighton in their last game, and the Cyclones got the outright win. I don’t understand why they’re underdogs again, at home no less, in this Cy-Hawk on the hardwood matchup.
It’s not Iowa State fandom clouding my judgment here, they’re just really good. Unexpectedly good in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, and that seems to be holding the market back from fully adjusting to this team. The Cyclones are excellent defensively – ranking 6th in defensive efficiency plus 18th in opponent 3-point percentage, which will help negate Iowa’s reliance on volume 3-point shooting. They’re also excellent in this situation, going 3-0 as an underdog with a margin of plus-21 to the number.
I also think the Cyclones have proven themselves better against top competition, knocking off two ranked teams already which is more than can be said for Iowa’s schedule. Hilton Coliseum will be rocking for this big rivalry, and getting this many points seems like a huge bargain in a game that ISU can easily win outright.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 480-367 ATS (+88.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
