Locks
NBA – Wolves/Clippers Over 223 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FSN
Well, we all saw how the last Minnesota Timberwolves’ over turned out in a game that exceeded the 250-mark so I’m rolling with the over again in this one. Karl-Anthony Towns is still probably going to be out, taking away any interior defense the Wolves barely had to begin with.
Malik Beasley has shown to be a capable scorer and the pace of this game should be enough to get it over the 223-mark with an explosive Los Angeles Clippers team coming to town.
NBA – Hawks/Mavs Over 232.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
I know the Atlanta Hawks don’t have a great record to the over, but some of that is attributed to the public driving totals because they expect Trae Young to light it up for this young team. Although he has had his moments, Atlanta has still been a good team for the under.
But this Dallas Mavericks team plays little to no defense averaging over 250 PPG in their last four contests. Just a few days ago these teams combined for 238 points in Atlanta. Because of all that, I think this team has a good chance of getting over 240 again with Kristaps Porzingis, Luka Doncic and Trae Young on the floor at the same time.
NCAA Basketball – SE Louisiana @ Sam Houston St. -11.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game is going to be all about SE Louisiana not being able to keep up with Sam Houston. With one of the worst offenses in the country (281st in points per game and 317th in points per possession), the Lions simply can’t score enough to keep up with the Bearkats who play at the 9th fastest pace in the country.
Sam Houston State also gets up a lot of shots from deep, the 36th most in the country, and should find plenty of opportunities against the 250th team in 3-point field goal defense. And again, oddsmakers are misunderstanding the Southland conference, as SE Louisiana’s three games against the league’s top teams have been losses by an average of 24 points, including by 18 at home to Sam Houston a month ago.
I’ve been riding the Bearkats all season and won’t stop here, this line should be closer to 20 points.
NCAA Basketball – Houston -11 @ South Florida (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU
Would you want to be in South Florida’s shoes right now? I wouldn’t. The Bulls have “sacrificial lamb” written all over them in this spot, facing a Houston team who got embarrassed by East Carolina, didn’t let their starters play against Lady of The Lake, and was called soft for not accepting a potential matchup against Gonzaga. Plus, South Florida has been on a COVID pause for a month, and teams always seem to struggle in their first games back from those layoffs.
I’m also still a believer in the Cougars overall, especially given they had covered six straight double-digit spreads until the East Carolina debacle. Their last straight-up loss was followed by a 14-point win at SMU, so this team knows how to respond. This boils down to a feel play for me, and given the spot for both teams, I like Houston to roll here.
NCAA Basketball – San Jose St. @ San Diego St. -29 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
Because why not, right? Yes, it’s a lot of points, but we may need to accept that San Diego State is just 30 or more points better than teams from the bottom half of the Mountain West right now. They showed it on Monday night against the Spartans despite actually not playing very well.
San Diego State needed their defense in that game because they shot nine percentage points below their season average, including 16 points lower from long range. They had two games at New Mexico canceled, so there seemed to be a rust factor. Against the 265th team in effective field goal percentage defense, I’m expecting improvement from the Aztecs on offense here.
Better scoring for a team who just hung 85 in a 31-point win is a scary proposition, so I’ll roll with the Aztecs again since they seem to revel in blowing teams out right now.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Rutgers +6.5 @ Iowa (-110): 6:30 PM CT on Big Ten Network
Iowa has been on a noticeable slide, dropping four of their last five games (0-5 ATS) in the last few minutes of each loss. This team has not been clutch at all and has been shooting horribly in the second half of games lately.
In their defense, they have been without CJ Fredrick the last few games while he battles plantar fasciitis. Keep an eye on his status as Fredrick may be Iowa’s best shooter and defender, and his ball security is key for this team’s success. When he is out it really hurts the Hawkeyes.
The fact that Iowa started the season as a seemingly sure thing to be a 1-seed in the tournament and has tumbled down to 15 in the rankings is a trend we can’t ignore. On the flip side, we have Rutgers led by the efficiency of Myles Johnson, and the flashiness of Ron Harper. The Knights have been on a tear recently, and they are definitely a team no one wants to see in the Big Ten.
I honestly think Rutgers has a chance on the moneyline but I’m gonna play it safe and take the 6.5 points against a struggling Iowa team.
Tiny Nick is 152-90 ATS (+57.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
