Locks
NCAA Basketball – Citadel/Wofford Under 156 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Ah Citadel, what would we do without your reputation?
The perception of the Bulldogs as a fast-paced and high-scoring team isn’t necessarily wrong as evidenced by a team scoring 90 or above in six of their games, but it hasn’t happened lately and is pulling their totals too high. Citadel is on a fairly unlikely 8-1 run to the under, including 7-2 under this particular number.
The trends are similar for Wofford. The Terriers are 7-1 under this total in their last eight regulation games. That includes the first matchup of these teams, which finished with 146 total points. Wofford has really struggled to score recently, and their pace (244th in the country) should dictate this game, so take the under on a total that’s inflated by reputation.
NCAA Basketball – Arizona State/USC Under 147 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s not often you see a USC total this high, and with good reason. This Trojans team excels on the defensive end of the floor (15th in defensive efficiency, 26th in points allowed per game). USC also plays at a slow pace (224th in the country), and is excellent on the glass (13th-best rebounding team) — both metrics that help unders.
As a result we’ve seen USC totals in the mid 130s, but their last seven games have come in under this particular number. Arizona State definitely has offensive firepower, but has struggled with consistency and against strong defensive teams, including in their 73-64 loss to USC last month.
I see something similar here. USC will play this game with their style and clean the glass, so expect limited scoring.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Wyoming/New Mexico Under 139 (-110): 7:00 PM CT
This New Mexico team is a sad story. They almost had to shut down their season, and it’s painful to watch them play offense.
The Lobos are 341st in points per possession and 272nd in possessions per game, so it’s no wonder they’re only scoring 55.8 points in conference games. It doesn’t help that they are 322nd in shooting percentage from the field, 346th from deep, and 345th from the line.
That should be a recipe for a dead under team and that’s exactly what New Mexico is, with an 11-3 record to the under by a margin of 10.2 points, 3rd and 2nd in the country, respectively.
While Wyoming is not known for their defense. They’ve faced the best offenses in the Mountain West for most of their conference games, inflating their stats and thus this total. I see another slow-paced game here with a lot of bricks, so take the under and be glad it’s not on TV so you aren’t subjected to watching it.
Tiny Nick is 164-95 ATS (+65.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
